New York Mets at Atlanta Braves Betting Odds & Free ML Pick

September 30, 7:20 PM EDT

Betting Odds

NYM -125/Atl +105
6ov -120

The NL East-leading Mets and second-place Braves conclude their season series with three games in Atlanta beginning Friday night. These teams both already clinched playoff berths, but they're still battling for the division title, a wild-card bye, and the right to avoid the Dodgers in the divisional round of the playoffs. Lefty Max Fried hits the hill for the home team here against Jake deGrom for the visitors. How are we playing this game with our free NYM/ATL pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Friday's baseball betting lines opened New York and deGrom at around -125 over Atlanta and Fried, with an over/under of seven runs. The money line was holding steady in the early betting action, but the total line has dropped to six 6uns.

Braves-Mets MLB Betting Preview

Atlanta just took two of three games at Washington, missing out on the sweep by losing Wednesday's series finale 3-2 in 10 innings. The Braves then had Thursday off. Just before that, Atlanta split four games at Philadelphia, and just before that, it split two games with the Nationals. Going back a bit further, the Braves are 2-0-2 over their last four series and 8-4 over their last 12 games. New York, meanwhile, just split two games with the Marlins, losing Tuesday 6-4 but winning Wednesday 5-4 in 10 innings. The Mets then also had Thursday off. Just before that, New York took two of three games from Oakland, and just before that, it took two of three games at Milwaukee. Going back a bit further, the Mets are 3-0-1 over their last four series and 9-3 over their last 12 games. At 98-58 overall, New York leads the NL East by one game over 97-59 Atlanta. But as mentioned above, both teams have already clinched playoff berths. The Mets lead the season series with the Braves nine games to seven.

Friday's Pitching Match-Up

Lefty Fried is 19/29 on quality starts this season. Last time out, eight days ago, he held the Phillies to one run and five hits through five innings, although Atlanta lost that game 1-0. And over his last four starts, he's allowed just five runs and 14 hits through 22 innings, with five walks against 24 strikeouts. The Braves are 19-10 with Fried this season, and while they're only 6-6 over his last 12 starts, that's not his fault. Over four starts already this season against the Mets Fried allowed ten runs - eight earned - and 19 hits through 24 innings. Atlanta split those four games. deGrom is 5/10 on quality starts this year but 0 for his last three. Last Saturday, he gave up five runs and six hits through just four innings of a 10-4 Braves loss to the A's. And over his last three starts, he's allowed 11 runs and 15 hits through 15 innings. New York is 6-4 with deGrom this season but 1-2 his last three times out. Over two starts this season against the Braves deGrom allowed five runs and six hits through 12 1/3 innings, with one walk against 21 whiffs! The Mets split those two games.

Splits With the Sticks

New York is batting .247 against left-handed pitching this season, with a .324 team OBP and a .397 team slugging percentage. Atlanta is slashing .248/.310/.441 against right-handed pitching.

The Bullpens

The Braves bullpen owns a 3.01 ERA this season, along with a 1.14 WHIP. The Mets pen owns a 3.65 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP.

MLB Betting Trends

New York is 47-31 on the road this season and 32-22 against left-handed starters. Atlanta is 52-26 at home and 61-43 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

  • The Overs are 81-67 in Mets games this season.
  • The Overs are 77-71 in Braves games.
  • The Unders are 40-36 at Truist Park this season.

Mets at Braves Free Moneyline Prediction

We give Fried a slight edge in the pitching match-up because he's going better as of late than deGrom. From there, it looks like the splits with the sticks are about even, but Atlanta owns a short edge in the bullpen comparison. Plus, it's getting an underdog price at home. We're betting the Braves Friday night.

Free Pick: 
Take Atlanta +113