Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees Pick

October 5, 5:07 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Yankees -180/Twins +160

The Yankees grabbed Game 1 of this best-of-five American League divisional-round series with the Twins Friday night, and look to go up 2-0 when the teams meet for Game 2 Saturday evening in the Bronx. New York will send a seasoned veteran to the mound Saturday while Minnesota is going with a kid who's been in the Majors for about six weeks. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

MLB playoff betting odds opened New York at around -180 for Game 2 over Minnesota, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Both those figures were holding steady in early betting action.

The Yanks could also be found getting around +110, giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Twins vs. Yankees Set-Up

New York took a 1-0 lead in this series with a 10-4 Game 1 victory Friday night. Minnesota actually led early 2-0, but the Yankees scored three runs in the bottom of third, two in the fifth, two in the sixth and three in the seventh to take control, on their way to the win and the cash as -200 favorites.

Also, Friday's game played over a total of 8.5 when the Twins scored a run in the top of the sixth.

New York scored ten runs on eight hits, six for extra bases, and eight walks, with a little help from a key Minnesota error.

The Yankees took the regular-season series from the Twins four games to two.

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Game 2 Starting Arms

Veteran righty Tanaka, by our strict standards, finished 15/31 on quality starts this season and three for his last five. Last Sunday, in a relief appearance against Texas, Tanaka gave up two runs – one earned – and five hits through three innings. But over his recent six appearances, he allowed 12 ER and 34 hits through 32 innings.

On the season, the Yanks finished 19-12 with Tanaka, 3-2 over his last five starts.

Tanaka owns a rather stark home/road split, posting a 3.10 ERA at Yankee Stadium this season, 6.05 away from it.

In his most recent start against Minnesota, back in April of last season, Tanaka allowed just one run and three hits through 6 2/3 innings. New York won that game 14-1.

Rookie righty Dobnak is 1/5 on quality starts since getting his call to the Big Club back in August, to go along with four appearances in relief. And he's been terrific as of late. Ten days ago, he held Detroit to one run – none earned - on one hit through six innings of a 5-1 Twins win. And over his last three starts, he allowed just four runs – two earned – and ten hits through 16 1/3 innings.

Minnesota is 3-2 in Dobnak's starts this season.

This start will be Dobnak's first-ever appearance against the Yankees, which could give him an edge, at least for the first couple of times through the lineup.

Dobnak earned his call-up by going 12-4 with a 2.07 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in the Minors this year.

Game 2 Batting Splits

Minnesota batted .264/.333/.484 against right-handed pitching this season.

New York batted .265/.336/.484 against RH pitching this season.

Both these lineups rank among the top half-dozen in Baseball in this split.

The Bullpens

The Twins bullpen posted a 4.17 ERA this season and a 1.32 WHIP while allowing a .740 OPS. Minnesota relievers then gave up seven runs in four innings of work Friday night.

The Yankees pen put up a 4.08 ERA this season and a 1.32 WHIP while allowing a .729 OPS. New York relievers then held the Twins to just one run and two hits in 4 1/3 innings of work Friday night.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Minnesota finished 55-26 on the road this season, best in the Majors by eight games.
  • Minnesota played 79-44 against right-handed starters this season.
  • New York finished 57-44 at home this season.
  • New York played 70-41 against right-handed starters this season.

Totals Report

  • Overs played 79-75 in Twins games this season.
  • Overs played 84-72 in Yankees games this season.
  • Unders played 44-35 in games played at Yankee Stadium this season.
  • Overs played 5-1 in Twins-Yankees games this season.

Twins at Yankees Prediction 10/5/19

New York owns Minnesota in the playoffs, going back to the beginning of this century, and will probably win this game, too. But we don't like that price, so we're steering clear of a side here. Instead, we notice that six of seven meetings between these two teams have played over their totals this season, and both these lineups hit righties well. So we'll ride that trend and play the over on Saturday's Game 2.

Free Pick: 
Take the Over 9.5

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