Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians Odds Analysis - Free Pick
The top two teams in the AL Central meet when the Twins and Indians begin a three-game rivalry series Monday night in Cleveland. How are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?
MLB Betting Odds
Monday's MLB betting odds at Bet365 opened Minnesota and Maeda at about -110 over Cleveland and Civale, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then dipped that total to 8.5.
Twins vs. Indians Set-Up
Minnesota just took two of three games in Kansas City over the weekend, winning Sunday's series rubber match 5-4. Just before that, the Twins took two of three from Milwaukee. Going back a bit further, Minnesota is 6-2 over its last eight games.
At 19-10 overall, the Twins lead the AL Central by a game and a half over second-place Cleveland, and they only trail Oakland by one game in the battle for the best record in the American League.
Meanwhile, Cleveland just dropped two of three games at home to last-place Detroit over the weekend, losing Sunday's series rubber match 7-4. But just prior to that, the Indians won six games in a row, albeit against Pittsburgh and the Tigers.
At 17-11 overall, the Tribe trails division-leading Minnesota by a game and a half in the AL Central, but they also own the No. 5 spot in the American League standings, which is good for a playoff spot this season.
This is the second meeting between these teams this season; three weeks ago, the Twins took three of four low-scoring games from the Tribe in Minneapolis.
Monday's Starting Arms
Civale is 4/5 on quality starts this season. Last Wednesday, he went a full nine innings against Pittsburgh, allowing just one run and five hits, walking none and striking out six in a 6-1 Cleveland win. And over his last three starts, he's allowed six runs and 18 hits through 22 innings, with two walks and 14 strikeouts.
The Indians are 3-2 with Civale this year, with the unders going 4-1.
Over three career starts against Minnesota, two last year and one earlier this month, Civale allowed five runs and 12 hits through 17 innings, with three walks against 18 whiffs. Thanks to some poor run support, Cleveland lost two of those three games.
Maeda is also 4/5 on quality starts this season. Last Tuesday, he took a no-hitter into the ninth inning against Milwaukee, gave up a bloop single, got pulled, then watched his bullpen blow the W for him, although the Twins eventually won that game 4-3 in extra innings. And just before that held those same Brewers to two runs through 6 2/3 innings of another Minnesota victory.
The Twins are 4-1 with Maeda this year, and while the overs are 3-2 with him, that's not his doing.
In his only career start against Cleveland, earlier this month, Maeda tossed six innings of one-hit, no-run ball, with one walk and six K's, in a 3-0 Minnesota victory.
Monday's Batting Splits
Minnesota is batting .243 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .324 team OBP and a .441 team slugging percentage.
Cleveland is batting .215/.332/.342 vs. RH pitching this season.
The Twins bullpen owns a 3.44 ERA this season and a 1.20 WHIP.
The Indians pen owns a 2.73 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP, which helps this unit rank among the top three bullpens in baseball.
MLB Betting Trends
- Minnesota is 7-7 on the road this season.
- Cleveland is 7-6 at home this season.
- Minnesota is an ML-best 15-5 against right-handed starters this season.
- Cleveland is 13-9 vs. RH pitching this season.
- Unders are 19-9 in Twins games this season.
- Unders are 19-8 in Indians games this season.
- Unders are 8-5 in games played at Progressive Field this season.
- Unders are 4-0 in Twins-Indians games this season.
- Get more details: Minnesota at Cleveland MLB Match-up Stats
Twins vs. Indians Prediction 8/24/20
We'll call this pitching match-up a push, and while the Twins own an edge with the sticks, the Indians hold the advantage in the bullpen comparison. Ultimately, after Minnesota took the first series between these teams three weeks ago, we like Cleveland to return the favor in this series. So we like the home-standing Indians for our free MLB pick for Monday.