Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox Pick

September 4, 7:10 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Twins +115 / Red Sox -135

This is the 2nd game of a three-game series, and in the first game, the Twins beat the Red Sox 6-5.

In Game 1 of this series in the Twins 6-5 win, they scored six runs on eight hits, and the Red Sox scored five runs on six hits. Minnesota scored three runs in the first three innings and Nelson Cruz and Miguel Sano each went deep and combined for four RBI.

The Twins are hot winners of three in a row and nine of their last ten games. After a three-game win streak the Red Sox have lost two of their previous three games.

This season the Twins rank first in runs scored and 8th in team ERA and the Red Sox rank 3rd in runs scored and 19th in team ERA.

Pitching Match-Up

Minnesota: Jose Berrios (11-7 3.57 ERA)

Boston: Eduardo Rodriguez (16-5 3.97 ERA)

Berrios was decent in his last start giving up three earned runs on seven hits in six innings in a 10-5 win over the Chicago White Sox. The Twins have won two of his last three starts where he gave up three earned runs in each of the wins and five of them in the loss. He has given up three earned runs in three of his last four starts, and in his previous start he picked up his first win in nearly a month. Berrios' only start of the season against the Red Sox came June 17th in Minnesota where he only gave up one earned run in eight innings and struck out ten but got no help in a 2-0 loss. The Twins have won his last four road starts but have lost his previous six starts facing a team with a winning record.

The Red Sox have won for of Rodriguez's last four starts, including his last three, and in his last one he gave up three earned runs on nine hits in five innings in a 7-4 Boston win. In his previous two starts before his last one, he did not give up any earned runs in 14 1/3 innings of work. Rodriguez ranks 2nd in the AL with 16 wins, and the Red Sox have won 38 of his last 55 home starts. In his career against the Twins, he is 2-1 with an ERA of 4.24 and in his lone start against them, this season on June 19th he four earned runs in seven innings and got a lot of help from the lineup in a 9-4 Red Sox win.

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Betting Angles

  • The Red Sox are 5-2 in their last seven games against the Twins.
  • The Red Sox are 7-3 in their last ten home games against the Twins.
  • In the last five games between these teams, the Under record is 4-1.
  • In the last seven games between these teams in Boston, the Under record is 6-1.

Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Records

Minnesota Twins: 86-52 SU / O/U 71-59 / Run Line W/L 76-62

Boston Red Sox: 74-64 SU / O/U 78-56 / Run Line W/L 59-79

Key Betting Trends

  • MINN is 9-1 in their last ten games
  • MINN is 38-16 in their previous 54 road games
  • MINN has an Over record of 7-2 in their last nine games against a left-hand starter
  • BOS is 11-5 in their last 16 games
  • BOS is 8-2 in their previous ten games against a right-hand starter
  • BOS has an Under record of 6-1 in their last seven games

Team Info

The Twins are in first place in the AL Central with a 6.5-game lead over the Cleveland Indians. The Twins are 7-1 in their current 10-day road trip, and they have the best road record in MLB. Not only are they the highest-scoring team in the Majors but have already broken the Major League record for HR in a season.

Max Kepler leads the Twins with 36 HR, and eight players for the team have at least 20 HR. Minnesota has scored 18 runs in their current three-game win streak.

The Red Sox won the World Series last season, but to get back to the playoffs they will have to rely on the Wild Card, as they are 16 games out of first place in the AL East. They are 5.5 games out of the 2nd AL Wild Card.

With the loss to the Twins in Game 1 of this series, the Red Sox fell below .500 at home. Rafael Devers leads the AL with 107 RBI, and he had a three-run HR in Game 1 of this series.

Key Player Injuries


C Mitch Garver is questionable for this game with a jaw injury, and 3B Marwin Gonzalez is out for this game with a right abdominal strain.


3B Michael Chavis is out for this game with a shoulder injury, and RP Heath Hembree is also out with lateral elbow inflammation in his pitching arm.

Twins at Red Sox Prediction 09/04/2019

The Twins come into this game as the much hotter team, and they have been great on their current road trip. Both starters were pretty good in their last outing, and I look for Berrios to have the better one in this game for his 2nd great start against Boston this season. While these are two of the three highest-scoring teams in MLB, I see a pitching duel in this game and with Berrios have the better outing the Twins will take this game and go for the series sweep on Thursday.

Free Pick: 
Take the Twins +115
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