Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees Odds, Trends, Free Pick

Date: 
September 6, 7:05 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
Minn +175/NYY -205
Total: 
7

The AL East-leading Yankees, stumbling toward the finish line on this regular season, meet the Twins for the second game of a four-game series at Yankee Stadium Tuesday night. Gerrit Cole hits the hill for the home team here against Joe Ryan for the visitors.

Which way are we going here with our free MIN/NYY pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Tuesday's baseball betting lines opened New York and Cole at around -190 over Minnesota and Ryan, with an over/under of seven runs. Early betting action then bumped the Yankees 15 cents to -205.

Twins-Yankees MLB Betting Preview

New York took the opener of this series Monday night 5-2. That game was tied at 2-2 through five and a half innings before the Yankees scored the last three runs for the victory. New York won Monday as a -155 favorite on the dime line and covered against the run line at a price of +125.

With Monday's win, the Yankees are still only 3-6 over their last nine games. At 81-54 overall, New York's lead in the AL East is down to five games over second-place Tampa Bay, and it now trails Houston by six games in the battle for the best record in the American League.

With Monday's loss, Minnesota is 1-4 over its last five games. At 68-65 overall, the Twins trail first-place Cleveland by one game in the weak AL Central.

The Yankees lead the season series with the Twinkies three games to one.

Tuesday's Pitching Match-Up

Cole is 17/27 on quality starts this season and four for his last five. Last Wednesday, he gave up three runs - all on one swing of the bat - and six hits through seven innings of a 3-2 New York loss to the Angels. And over his last five starts, he's allowed eight earned runs and 23 hits through 33 1/3 innings.

The Yankees are 16-11 with Cole this season, and that's even a couple of games worse than they should be, based on his performances.

Over his last three starts against Minnesota, two last year (good) and one earlier this season (bad), Cole allowed nine runs and 18 hits, including seven home runs, through 14 1/3 innings. New York won all three of those games.

Ryan is 7/22 on quality starts this year and two for his last three. Last Wednesday, he got touched by Boston for five runs and eight hits through five innings of a 6-5 Twins loss. But over his two starts previous to that, he allowed just two runs and four hits through 12 1/3 innings.

Minnesota is 13-9 with Ryan this season, and that's about what they should be.

This will be Ryan's first career start against the Yankees.

Splits With the Sticks

The Twins are batting .250 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .320 team OBP and a .413 team slugging percentage.

New York is slashing .235/.319/.413 against right-handed pitching. The Yankees have also been held to three runs or less eight times over their last ten games.

The Bullpens

The New York bullpen owns a 3.02 ERA this season, along with a 1.16 WHIP.

The Minnesota pen owns a 3.88 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.

MLB Betting Trends

Minnesota is 28-36 on the road this season and 46-47 against right-handed starters.

New York is 46-20 at home and 57-39 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

  • The Under is 62-61 in Twins games this season.
  • The Under is 70-61 in Yankees games.
  • The Under is 33-31 at Yankee Stadium this season.

Twins at Yankees Betting Predictions 9/6/22

We have to give Cole the checkmark in the pitching match-up, although it's a little closer than first glance might indicate. From there, New York owns an edge in the bullpen comparison, but the splits with the sticks are about even. So when we add things up, it appears the line on this game is about 40-50 cents too high. Betting baseball is about betting value on the daily dime line, and we think there's good value with Minnesota getting that fat underdog price. 

Free Pick: 
Take Minnesota +175