Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians Odds & Free Pick

Date: 
June 27, 7:10 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
MIN -124/CLE +114
Runline: 
Twins -1.5 +135 / Guardians +1.5 -155
Total: 
8 -110

The top two teams in the AL Central open a five-game rivalry series when the Twins and Indians - err, Guardians - clash in Cleveland Monday night. Young Triston McKenzie gets the call for the home team here against veteran Sonny Gray for the visitors.

How are we playing this game with our free baseball betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Monday’s baseball betting lines opened Minnesota as a -135 road favorite over Cleveland, with an over/under of eight runs. Early betting action then dipped the Twins a nickel to -130.

Twins-Guardians MLB Betting Preview

Minnesota just took two of three games at home from Colorado over the weekend, winning Sunday’s series rubber match 6-3. Just before that the Twins lost two of three at home to this Cleveland team, and just before that they lost two of three at Arizona. So Minnesota is 1-2 over its last three series and 4-5 over its last nine games.

Cleveland, meanwhile, just got swept three games by Boston over the weekend, losing Sunday’s series finale 8-3. Just before that the Guardians took two of three at Minnesota, and just before that they took two of three at the Dodgers. So although Cleveland lugs a four-game losing skid into Monday night it’s actually 7-1 over its last eight series and 17-8 over its last 25 games.

At 41-33 overall the Twins lead the AL Central by two games over the 36-32 Guardians.

These teams have split six meetings so far this season.

Monday's Pitching Match-Up

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played last Wednesday at Target Field, an 11-10 Cleveland victory.

McKenzie is 7/12 on quality starts this season and two for his last three. Last Wednesday this Minnesota team tagged him for six runs and nine hits, including three home runs, through only 4 1/3 innings, although the Guardians came back to win that game 11-10. But over his two starts prior to that he held Colorado and Oakland to three runs through 12 innings in a couple more Cleveland wins.

The Guardians are 8-4 with McKenzie this season and that might even be a game worse than they should be, based on his performances.

Over his last five starts against the Twins, three last year and two already this season, McKenzie allowed 17 runs and 20 hits through 26 2/3 innings, with 10 walks and 27 strikeouts. The Guardians lost three of those five games.

Gray is 3/9 on quality starts this year and three for his last five. Last Wednesday he gave up four runs - three earned - and eight hits through only four frames of that 11-10 Minnesota defeat. But over his four starts previous to that he allowed just three runs and 15 hits through 24 innings, with one walk against 22 whiffs.

The Twins are 6-3 with Gray this season, 6-1 his last seven times out.

Over his last three starts against Cleveland, one last year with Cincinnati and two already this season for Minnesota, Gray gave up eight runs - seven earned - and 18 hits, including three homers, through 12 2/3 innings. His teams won two of those three games.

Splits With the Sticks

Minnesota is batting .254 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .324 team OBP and a .422 team slugging percentage. Numbers like those, believe it or not, lead us to rank this line-up among the top two in the Majors in this split, along with the Dodgers.

Cleveland is slashing .259/.318/.412 against right-handed pitching. The Guardians have also scored a total of just eight runs over their last four games.

The Bullpens

The Cleveland bullpen owns a 3.19 ERA this season, along with a 1.18 WHIP. Numbers like those lead us to rank this unit among the top half-dozen or so bullpens in Baseball.

The Minnesota pen owns a 3.83 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.

MLB Betting Trends

  • The Twins are 18-16 on the road this season and 28-24 against right-handed starters.
  • The Guardians are 16-13 at home and 23-21 against RH starters.

Totals Report

  • The Totals are split 34-34 in Twins games this season.
  • The Overs are 34-30 in Guardians games.
  • The Overs are 16-12 at Progressive Field this season.
  • The Unders are a combined 12-9 with McKenzie and Gray this season.

Twins at Guardians Prediction 6/27/22

We give Gray an edge in the pitching match-up and while Cleveland owns an edge in the bullpen comparison Minnesota owns an edge with the sticks. Also, following a great six-week run it looks like the Guardians are coming back to Earth a bit. So we like the Twins Monday night at a reasonable price.  

Free Pick: 
Take Minnesota -