Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals NL Wild Pick

Date: 
September 30, 7:05 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
Brewers +145 / Nationals -175
Total: 
8

This game is the NL Wild Card game where the winner will take on the Dodgers in the NLDS beginning on Thursday in L.A.

In their last game of the season, the Brewers lost to the Colorado Rockies 4-3 in 13 innings. The Brewers scored three runs on seven hits, and the Rockies scored four runs on eight hits. Milwaukee was up 3-2 in the 9th inning but gave up a run to send the game to extra innings.

In their last game, the Nationals beat the Cleveland Indians 8-2. The Nats scored eight runs on 14 hits, and the Indians scored two runs on six hits. Washington scored four runs in the 6th inning, and four players for the club had multi-hit games.

The Brewers come into Wild Card game after getting swept in their last series on the road facing the Rockies. On the other side of the coin, the Nationals go into this game hot riding an eight-game winning streak.

This season the Brewers rank 17th in runs scored and 16th in team ERA and the Nationals rank 6th in runs scored and 13th in team ERA.

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Pitching Match-Up

Milwaukee: Brandon Woodruff (11-3 3.62 ERA)

Washington: Max Scherzer (11-7 2.92 ERA)

All-Star Brandon Woodruff gets the start in this game, and after missing nearly two months with an oblique injury he made two starts at the end of the season, but both only lasted two innings. However, in both outings, he did not give up any runs or any hits and struck out seven batters. His last two starts were at home, and his previous road start was July 21st where he only lasted three innings leaving with an injury after giving up four earned runs on six hits in three innings in a 7-4 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Woodruff faced the Nationals once this season on May 8th in Milwaukee where he gave up one earned run on four hits in six innings in a 7-3 Brewers win. The Brewers have won 22 of Woodruff's last 28 starts, and they have won six of his last eight road starts.

In Scherzer's last start of the season he was not very sharp giving up four earned runs on five hits, including two HR, in six innings in a 6-5 win over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Nationals had lost his previous two starts where he gave up eight earned runs in 11 2/3 innings. In his lone start against the Brewers, this season on May 6th in Milwaukee he gave up one earned run on six hits in six innings in a 5-3 Washington loss. Scherzer has given up two HR in each of his last two starts. The Nationals are 12-3 in Scherzer's last 15 starts and are 6-2 in his previous eight home starts.

Betting Angles

  • The Brewers are 5-2 in their last seven games against the Nationals.
  • In the last eight games between these teams, the Over record is 6-2.
  • In the last five games between these teams in Washington, the Over record is 4-1.

Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Records

Milwaukee Brewers: 89-73 SU / O/U 69-87 / Run Line W/L 81-81

Washington Nationals: 93-69 SU / O/U 75-76 / Run Line W/L 91-71

Key Betting Trends

  • MIL is 21-7 in their last 28 games
  • MIL is 11-4 in their previous 15 road games
  • MIL has an Under record of 23-11-2 in their past 36 games
  • WASH is 40-17 in their last 57 home games
  • WASH is 8-0 in their previous eight games
  • WASH has an Over record of 3-0-1 in their past four games

Team Info

The Brewers had won seven in a row before getting swept in three games in their last series of the season. In their win streak, they only allowed 13 runs while in getting swept in their previous series on the road against the Colorado Rockies they gave up 18 runs giving up 11 in one game.

In the series between these teams in Washington, this season in mid-August the Nationals took two of three games from the Brewers.

The Nationals ended the season on fire winning their last eight games, and in sweeping the Cleveland Indians in their previous series, they outscored them 26-11 in the three games.

In winning two of three games in the home series against the Brewers this season the Nationals scored 30 runs in the last two games and lost the first 15-14 in 14 innings.

On the season the Nationals are 50-31 at home, and the Brewers are 40-41 on the road.

The Brewers are the only team in the playoffs that had a losing home record this season.

Key Injuries

BREWERS

OF Ryan Braun and OF Lorenzo Cain are both questionable for this game.

NATIONALS

RP Roenis Elias is out indefinitely, and RP Koda Glover is out until early October.

Brewers at Nationals Prediction 09/30/19

The Nationals head into this Wild Card game hot winners of eight in a row, but Scherzer has not been hot in his last three starts where he has given up 12 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings. He pitched well against the Brewers in his lone start to the season but did not get much help from the lineup in a Washington loss. If he gets off to a rocky start, the Nationals may be in trouble, as this season they ranked dead last in MLB in bullpen ERA. Woodruff will be making just his 3rd start since coming off the DL, and his last two have only lasted two innings each. Milwaukee ranks 17th in the Majors in bullpen ERA and while they were solid in Woodruff's previous two starts giving up seven runs in 14 innings. However, the bullpen gave up ten earned runs in getting swept in their last series. I look for Scherzer to have a decent start, but the main reason the Nationals will win is their lineup that will get to Woodruff and the Milwaukee bullpen. Washington will win this Wild Card game and head to the NLDS to face the Dodgers with that series beginning on Thursday.

Free Pick: 
Take the Nationals -175
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