Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Pick

September 24, 6:40 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Brewers +105 / Reds -115

This game is the first of a three-game series between these teams and a vital one for the Brewers. With six games remaining Milwaukee is 3.5 games back of the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central and they hold the 2nd NL Wild Card four games up on the Chicago Cubs and a half a game back of the Washington Nationals.

In their last game, the Brewers won their 4th in a row with a 4-3 home win over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Brewers scored four runs on seven hits, and the Pirates scored three runs on four hits. Milwaukee's Eric Thames had two HR in the game and had three RBI.

The Reds were at home in their last game and lost to the New York Mets 6-3. Cincy scored three runs on six hits, and the Mets scored six runs on nine hits. The Reds gave up four runs in the first innings.

The playoff-chasing Brewers are hot at the right time winning four in a row and eight of their last nine games. The Reds are ten games under .500 on the season, and after winning two in a row, they have lost two of their previous three games.

This season the Brewers rank 19th in runs scored and 16th in team ERA and the Reds rank 24th in runs scored and 9th in team ERA.

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Pitching Match-Up

Milwaukee: Adrian Houser (6-7 3.83 ERA)

Cincinnati: Sonny Gray (11-7 2.80 ERA)

The Brewers have lost four of Houser's last five starts, including his previous two, and in his last one he gave up two earned runs on three hits in five innings in a 2-1 loss to the San Diego Padres. His previous start was on the road where he gave up four earned runs in only three innings in a loss and this season as the visitor Houser is 4-4 with an ERA of 4.42. He has three relief appearances and one start against the Reds this season and the one start was on the road where he gave up three earned runs on six hits in five innings in an 8-6 Milwaukee win. The Brewers have lost five of Houser’s last six road starts.

The Reds have won two of Gray's last three starts, and in his last one he picked up a win going six 2/3 innings and giving up two earned runs on four hits in a 4-2 win over the Chicago Cubs. He ranks 4th in the NL in ERA and in his last nine starts he has allowed over two earned runs only once, and that was the start before his last one where he gave up three earned runs. Gray has pitched great since the All-Star break going 6-1 with an ERA of only 1.91 with 96 strikeouts in 80 innings of work. The Reds have won all four of Gray's starts against the Brewers this season where he has totaled 24 1/3 innings and gave up five earned runs with four of them coming in one game. Cincinnati has won 10 of Gray's last 11 home starts.

Betting Angles

  • The Reds are 5-1 in their last six games against the Brewers.
  • In the last eight games between these teams in Cincinnati, the Under record is 7-1.

Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Records

Milwaukee Brewers: 86-70 SU / O/U 67-84 / Run Line W/L 78-78

Cincinnati Reds: 73-83 SU / O/U 59-90 / Run Line W/L 79-77

Key Betting Trends

  • MIL is 8-1 in their last nine games
  • MIL is 8-1 in their last nine road games
  • MIL has an Under record of 5-2 in their last seven games
  • CINCY is 13-6 in their last 19 home games against a right-hand starter
  • CINCY is 4-0 in their previous four games following a loss
  • CINCY has an Under record of 9-3-2 in their past 14 games

Team Info

The Brewers are back on the road after a seven-game homestand where they went 6-1 and their last six games of the season are on the road. It will be hard to catch the Cardinals in the NL Central being 3.5 games back of them and not facing them again this season, but they are in great shape for the Wild Card.

The Milwaukee pitching has been great the last couple of weeks, and in their four-game win streak, they have only allowed six runs.

The Brewers have won 15 of their last 17 games, and they have won 10 of 12 games since they lost reigning MVP Christian Yelich to a season-ending knee injury.

The Reds have been up and down as of late, and they've split the 16 games facing the Brewers this season. They have not met the Brewers since the beginning of the 2nd half in a three-game set in Milwaukee where they lost two of three games giving up 20 runs in the two losses.

On the season the Reds are 41-37 at home and the Brewers, and while the Brewers are under .500 on the road (37-38), they have won eight of their last nine road games.

Key Injuries


C Yelich and RP Corey Knebel are out for the season, and RP Bobby Wahl is out indefinitely.


OF Josh VanMeter, RP Robert Stephenson, RP Michael Lorenzen, and RP Kevin Gausman are all listed as questionable for this game.

Brewers at Reds Prediction 09/24/2019

The Brewers are hot right now, but they face Gray, who is the Ace of the Reds’ staff and leads the team in ERA and strikeouts. He has pitched great against the Brewers this season with two starts where he did not give up any earned runs and Cincy has won all four of his starts facing them this season. Look for him to have another sharp outing while the Reds’ lineup will get to Houser, who has given up six earned runs in his last two starts where he only lasted eight innings. The Brewers have lost five of Houser’s last six road starts while the Reds have won 10 of Gray’s last 11 home starts. Look for those trends to continue, as the Reds will take this game and snap the Brewers four-game winning streak.

Free Pick: 
Take the Reds -115