Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds & Predictions

September 21, 6:40 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Brewers +114/Reds -124
7.5un -115

The Brewers and Reds both sit at .500 and in the thick of the battle for wild-card playoff berths in the National League, heading into the opener of this three-game NL Central series Monday night. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Monday's MLB betting odds opened Cincinnati at around -135 over Milwaukee, with an over/under of eight runs. Early betting action then dipped the Reds to -130.

Brewers vs. Reds Set-Up

Milwaukee just swept three games from Kansas City over the weekend, completing the sweep with a 5-3 win Sunday. So including a victory in the last game of a series with St. Louis earlier in the week, the Brewers ride a four-game winning streak into Monday.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati took two of three games from the Chicago White Sox over the weekend, winning a series rubber match Sunday 7-3. Just before that, the Reds swept four games from Pittsburgh, and just before that, they took two of three from the Cardinals. So Cincy is 8-2 over its last ten games.

At 27-27 overall, the Reds are tied with 26-26 Milwaukee for third place in the NL Central, 4.5 games behind the division-leading Cubs but only a game behind second-place St. Louis. And second place makes the playoffs this season.

The Reds also lead the season series with the Brewers four games to three.

Monday's Starting Arms

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played back on Aug. 25 of this season, a 3-2 Milwaukee win.

Castillo is 6/10 on quality starts this season and three for his last three. Last Wednesday, he held Pittsburgh scoreless on three hits through seven innings, with one walk and ten strikeouts, in a 1-0 Cincinnati victory. And over his last three starts, he's allowed just three runs and 12 hits through 22 innings, with six walks and 24 whiffs.

On the season, the Reds are only 4-6 with Castillo but 3-0 over his last three starts.

Over his last six starts against Milwaukee, five last year, and one earlier this season, Castillo allowed 19 runs – 15 earned – and 22 hits through 32 innings. Cincinnati only won one of those six games.

Woodruff is 5/11 on quality starts this season and two for his last two. Last Wednesday, he held St. Louis to four runs – three earned – and seven hits through seven innings, although the Brewers lost that game 4-2. And just before that, he threw seven innings of "one-hit," shut-out ball against the Cubs, with 12 strikeouts against zero walks.

For the season, Milwaukee is 5-6 with Woodruff, and only 1-3 over his last four starts, although that's not all his fault.

Over his last four starts against Cincinnati, two last year and two earlier this season, Woodruff allowed eight runs and 21 hits through 23 innings, with four walks and 31 strikeouts. The Brewers won three of those four games.

Monday's Batting Splits

Milwaukee is batting .221 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .308 team OBP and a .382 team slugging percentage.

Cincinnati is batting .212/.319/.404 vs. RH pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Brewers bullpen owns a 4.04 ERA this season and a 1.23 WHIP.

The Reds pen owns a 4.71 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP.

MLB Betting Trends

  • The Brewers are 11-12 on the road this season.
  • The Reds are 14-13 at home this season.
  • The Brewers are 15-21 against right-handed starters this season.
  • The Reds are 21-22 vs. RH starters this season.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 24-23 in Brewers games this season.
  • Unders are 30-23 in Reds games this season.
  • Unders are 4-3 in Brewers-Reds games this season.
  • Overs are 14-13 in games played at Great American Ballpark this season.
  • Unders are 9-1 in Woodruff's starts this season.

Brewers at Reds Prediction 9/21/20

We give Woodruff a short edge in the pitching match-up, based mainly on recent track records against these opponents. And while Cincinnati might own the edge with the sticks, Milwaukee holds the edge in the bullpen comparison. So we like the Brewers at the underdog price for our free MLB pick for Monday.
Free Pick: 
Take the Brewers +114