Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies Odds & Free Pick

April 24, 7:08 PM EDT

Betting Odds

MIL+150/PHI -163
8ov -110

After splitting the first two games of this three-game National League series, the Brewers and Phillies meet for a rubber match on this week's edition of Sunday night baseball. Aaron Nola hits the hill for the home team here against lefty Eric Lauer for the visitors.

Who do we like here for our free baseball betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Sunday's baseball betting lines opened Philadelphia and Nola at around -155 over Milwaukee and Lauer, with an over/under of eight runs. Early betting action then bumped the Phillies 15 cents to -170.

Brewers-Phillies MLB Betting Preview

Philadelphia came from behind to take the opener of this series Friday night 4-2, but Milwaukee rallied to win Saturday's game 5-3. The Phillies won as -120 favorites on the dime line Friday, while the Brewers won Saturday as +125 underdogs. Also, Friday's game played under a total of 7.5 runs, while Saturday's game pushed a total of eight. With Saturday's victory, Milwaukee is 5-1 over its last six games. With Saturday's loss, Philadelphia is 2-4 over its last six games. Last year the Phillies took the season series from the Brewers five games to two.

Sunday's Pitching Match-Up

Nola is 0/3 on quality starts this season. Last time out, he came close, holding Colorado to two runs and six hits through 5 1/3 innings of a 4-1 Philadelphia loss. But on the season, he's allowed nine runs and 13 hits, including four home runs, through 14 2/3 innings, with four walks and 16 strikeouts. The Phillies are 1-2 with Nola this season. In two starts last year against Milwaukee, Nola allowed four runs and 11 hits through 11 innings, with two walks and 16 whiffs. Philly split those two games. Lefty Lauer is 1/2 on quality starts this year. Last time out, he held Pittsburgh to one run and five hits through six innings of a 6-1 Brewers victory. So on the season, he's allowed five runs - four earned - and eight hits through 10 1/3 innings, with three walks and 10 K's. Milwaukee is 2-0 with Lauer this season. Over two starts last year against the Phillies, Lauer gave up six runs - only two earned - and 12 hits through 13 innings, with one walk and 12 strikeouts. The Brewers split those two games.

Splits With the Sticks

Milwaukee is batting .224 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .302 team OBP and a .363 team slugging percentage.

Philadelphia is slashing .305/.389/.502 against left-handed pitching.

The Bullpens

The Brewers bullpen owns a 3.07 ERA this season, along with a 1.35 WHIP and a 2.38 K/BB ratio. The Phillies pen owns an ML-worst 4.58 ERA this season, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 2.19 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Milwaukee is 4-4 on the road this season and 8-2 against right-handed starters.
  • Philadelphia is 4-4 at home and 2-1 against left-handed starters.

Totals Report

  • The Under is 7-4 in Brewers games this season.
  • The Under is 7-6 in Phillies games.
  • The Over went 4-3 in Brewers-Phillies games last season.
  • The Under was 41-37 at Citizens Bank Park last season.

Brewers vs. Phillies Prediction 4/24/22

We see this pitching match-up as close; Nola probably owns an edge, but he hasn't exactly been great so far this season. From there, we give Philadelphia an edge with the sticks, but Milwaukee owns an edge in the bullpen comparison. So our feeling is the line on this game should be a lot lower than it is. Which means we like the betting value here with the Brewers at the underdog price.   

Free Pick: 
Take Milwaukee +150