Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Game 5 Pick

October 25, 8:08 PM EDT

Betting Odds

LAD -159/ TB +147
LAD -1.5 (+105)/ TB +1.5 (-115)

After taking Game 4 of this 2020 World Series in crazy fashion Saturday night, the Tampa Bay Rays shoot to take the Series lead when the teams meet for Game 5 Sunday night on the neutral turf in Arlington. Tampa was one out away from a 3-1 Series deficit, but one batted ball may have turned the whole series around. Can the Rays take advantage of their good fortune? Can the Dodgers rebound off a tough loss? And who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB World Series Betting Odds

Game 5 World Series betting odds opened Los Angeles at around -150 over Tampa Bay, with an over/under of eight runs. Early betting action then bumped the Dodgers to -155. LA could also be found getting around +105, giving the run and a half on the run line.

World Series Game 5 Betting Preview

Tampa Bay is the designated home team for this Game 5.

This World Series is tied at two games apiece, following Tampa's wild 8-7 victory in Game 4 Saturday night. Los Angeles led 3-1 in the fifth inning Saturday, then trailed 5-4 through six. LA rallied to lead 7-6 into the bottom of the ninth, but the Rays got a clutch two-out hit by little-used Brett Phillips, which the Dodgers then turned into a hot potato, resulting in two runs and a Tampa victory.

The Rays won Saturday as +145 underdogs on the World Series betting line, and the game played over its total of eight runs. So the overs are now 4-0 in this World Series, as the teams have combined to score 44 runs. With Saturday's win, Tampa is now 11-7 this postseason, while Los Angeles is now 11-5.

Game 5 Starting Arms

This pitching match-up is a rematch of Game 1 of this World Series, an 8-3 Los Angeles victory. Glasnow is 4/16 on quality starts this season, 1/5 this postseason. Last Tuesday, in Game 1 of this World Series, he got pegged for six runs on three hits and six walks through 4 1/3 innings of that 8-3 Tampa loss. So over five starts, this postseason Glasnow has allowed 16 runs and 20 hits, including seven home runs, through 23 2/3 innings, with 14 walks and 33 strikeouts.

On the season, the Rays are 12-4 with Glasnow, 3-2 this postseason.

Tuesday's game was Glasnow's first-ever action against the Dodgers.

Lefty Kershaw is 9/14 on quality starts this year, 3/4, this postseason. Tuesday, he held Tampa to one run and two hits through six innings, with one walk and eight strikeouts, in that 8-3 Los Angeles victory. So over four starts, this postseason Kershaw has allowed eight runs and 18 hits through 25 innings, with three walks and 31 strikeouts.

On the season, the Dodgers are 11-3 with Kershaw, 3-1 this postseason.

Over his last two starts against the Rays, the one Tuesday and one last year, Kershaw allowed three runs and eight hits through 12 1/3 innings. Los Angeles won both those games. Game 5 Batting Splits

The Dodgers batted .259 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .338 team OBP and a .498 team slugging percentage. LA has also scored at least five runs nine times over its last 14 games this postseason.

Tampa Bay batted .237/.339/.455 vs. left-handed pitching this season. Also, prior to Saturday night, the Rays had scored a total of 39 runs over their previous 12 games.

The Bullpens

The Tampa bullpen posted a 3.37 ERA this season, along with a 1.19 WHIP and a 3.02 K/BB ratio. Numbers like those helped this unit rank among the top three bullpens in Baseball this year. The Dodgers bullpen put up a 2.74 ERA this season, along with an ML-best 1.04 WHIP and a 3.34 K/BB ratio. Numbers like those helped this unit rank as the No. 1 bullpen in Baseball.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Los Angeles played 30-12 against right-handed starters this season, the 2nd-best record in the Majors in that split.
  • The Rays played 9-8 vs. left-handed starters this season.

Totals Report

  • Totals are split 9-9 in Tampa games this postseason.
  • Overs are 10-6 in Dodgers games this postseason.
  • The totals split 14-14 at Globe Life Field during the regular season, but the overs are now 10-4 at GLF this postseason.

Dodgers vs. Rays Game 5 Prediction

The Game 5 pitching match-up resulted in an 8-3 Los Angeles victory back in Game 1, and we won't be surprised by a similar outcome Sunday night. Kershaw owns the edge on Glasnow and the Dodgers' own advantages at the plate and in the bullpen. So we like Los Angeles here. We also like the idea that the Dodgers will bat nine times, so we'll play LA against the run line.
Free Pick: 
Take the Dodgers -1.5 +105