Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick

Date: 
July 16, 7:05 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
Dodgers -170/Phillies +155
Total: 
9.5

MLB Betting Odds

Tuesday's MLB betting odds opened LA at around -175 over Philadelphia, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped that line to upwards of -190.

The Dodgers could also be found at most betting sites at around -125 giving the run and a half against the MLB run line.

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Dodgers vs. Phillies Set-Up

Los Angeles took the opener of this series Monday night 16-2, winning outright as -175 favorites on the MLB betting line and covering at -110 against the run line. The Dodgers broke things open with a six-run fourth inning and poured it on from there, bashing out 19 hits on the night, nine for extra bases.

LA now leads the season series with Philly four games to none, outscoring the Phillies 34-8.

With Monday's victory, the Dodgers now own a three-game winning streak. At 63-33 overall Los Angeles leads the NL West by 15 games over Arizona, and it's 4.5 games up on Atlanta in the battle for the best record in the National League.

With Tuesday's loss, Philadelphia is 3-6 over its last nine games. At 48-46 overall the Phillies trail the first-place Braves by 9.5 games in the NL East, and they're now tied with St. Louis for the second National League wild-card spot.

Tuesday's Starting Arms

Velasquez, by our strict standards, is just 1/10 on quality starts this season, 0/4 since returning to the rotation following a stint working out of the pen. Eleven days ago he held the Mets to two runs and six hits through five innings of a 7-2 Philly victory. But over his last four starts, he's allowed 11 runs and 17 hits through 16 2/3 innings.

The Phillies are 4-6 with Velasquez this season, 1-3 over his last four starts.

Over his last three appearances against Los Angeles, one start last season and two relief appearances earlier this season, Velasquez gave up four runs – three earned – on six hits and three walks over 7 1/3 innings.

Buehler is 10/17 on quality starts this year and five for his last six. Thirteen days ago he allowed three runs and nine hits through seven innings of a 5-4 Dodgers win over Arizona, which was a good bounce-back effort after a bombing he suffered at Colorado his previous time out. But over his four starts before that, he allowed just three runs through 31 innings.

Los Angeles is 12-5 with Buehler this season, 7-1 over his last eight starts.

In his only career start against the Phillies, back in July of last season, Buehler got nicked for five runs in less than five innings of a 7-3 Dodgers loss.

Tuesday's Batting Splits

Los Angeles is batting .269/.348/.482 against right-handed pitching this season. Numbers like those help this lineup rank among the top three in the Majors in this split.

Philadelphia is batting .241/.322/.416 against RH pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Dodgers bullpen owns a 4.03 ERA this season and a 1.18 WHIP while allowing a .687 OPS. Numbers like those help this unit rank among the top half-dozen bullpens in Baseball at the moment.

Meanwhile, after getting clipped for nine runs in three innings Monday night, the Phillies pen now owns a 4.95 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP while allowing an .819 OPS.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 47-44 in Dodgers games this season.
  • Unders are 47-44 in Phillies games this season.
  • Unders are 27-20 in games played at Citizens Bank Park this season.
  • Unders are 2-1 in Dodgers-Phillies games this season.

Dodgers at Phillies Prediction 07/16/2019

Los Angeles owns advantages in the pitching match-up, in the splits with the sticks and the bullpen comparison. So we like the Dodgers here. And considering three of its four wins over Philadelphia this season have come by at least two runs we'll play LA against the MLB run line.

Free Pick: 
Take the Dodgers -1.5 -125

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