Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox Pick 7/12/19

July 12, 7:10 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Red Sox -110/Dodgers +100

MLB Betting Odds

Friday's MLB betting odds opened Boston at around -110 over LA, with an over/under of 10.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped that total to 11.

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Dodgers vs. Red Sox Set-Up

Los Angeles finished the first half of this season by losing the last three games of a four-game series against San Diego. Just before that the Dodgers swept two games from Arizona. Going back just a bit Los Angeles is only 1-2-1 over its last four series and 6-7 over its last 13 games.

However, at 60-32 overall LA leads the NL West by 13.5 games, and it's 5.5 games up on Atlanta in the battle for the best record in the National League.

Boston, meanwhile, finished its first half with a three-game sweep of Detroit. Just before that the Red Sox took two of three from Toronto. So Boston is 5-1 over its last six games.

At 49-41 overall the Red Sox trail the division-leading Yankees by nine games in the AL East, but they're only two games back of Cleveland in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot.

Last October Boston only needed five games to beat LA in the World Series.

Friday's Starting Arms

Lefty Rodriguez, by our strict standards, is only 6/18 on quality starts this season and 0 for his last four. Last Friday he held Detroit to just one run and four hits through five innings of a 9-6 Red Sox victory. But over his three starts previous to that he gave up nine runs and 18 hits, including four homers, through 18 2/3 innings.

Boston is 13-5 with Rodriguez this season, and 4-1 over his last five starts, thanks in part to some good run support.

Rodriguez started one game in last year's World Series against the Dodgers, giving up four runs through 5 2/3 innings of a 9-6 Boston victory.

Maeda is 7/17 on quality starts this year and two for his last three. Last Saturday he limited San Diego to three runs and four hits through 7 2/3 innings, although Los Angeles lost that game 3-1. And over his last three starts, he's allowed seven runs and 14 hits through 19 innings.

The Dodgers are 9-8 with Maeda this year, 2-1 over his last three starts.

In three appearances against the Red Sox in the World Series, last Fall Maeda allowed one run and four hits through three innings.

Friday's Batting Splits

Los Angeles is batting .258/.337/.450 against left-handed pitching this season.

Boston is batting .280/.355/.471 against right-handed pitching this season, which helps this lineup rank among the top two or three in the Majors in this split.

The Bullpens

The Dodgers bullpen owns a 3.95 ERA this season and a 1.17 WHIP while allowing a .678 OPS. Numbers like those help this unit rank among the top half-dozen bullpens in Baseball at the moment.

The Red Sox pen owns a 4.44 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP while allowing a .750 OPS.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 44-43 in Dodgers games this season.
  • Overs are 51-36 in Red Sox games this season.
  • Overs are 25-17 in games played at Fenway Park this season.
  • Overs are a lopsided 15-3 with Rodriguez this season.
  • Unders finished 3-2 in that Dodgers-Red Sox World Series last Fall.

Dodgers at Red Sox Prediction 07/12/2019

We give Maeda the edge in the pitching match-up, and while Boston might own an advantage with the sticks, LA owns the better bullpen. Also, revenge isn't always a reliable handicapping factor, but it might mean something here. We like the Dodgers for our free MLB pick on this game.

Free Pick: 
Take the Dodgers +100

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