Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves Game 4 Pick

Date: 
October 15, 8:08 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
Dodgers -210/Braves +192
Total: 
9un -115

It's "game on" in the National League Championship Series, following LA's 15-3 romp in Game 3 Wednesday night. Now the Dodgers shoot to even this series up when the teams meet for Game 4 Thursday night on the neutral turf in Arlington. LA's listed as a considerable favorite; how are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Game 4 MLB betting odds opened LA and Kershaw at around -205 over Atlanta and Wilson, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then drove the Dodgers to -225.

Los Angeles was also listed at around -140, giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Dodgers vs. Braves Game 4 Set-Up

Atlanta leads this best-of-seven NLCS two games to one, following LA's 15-3 romp in Game 3 Wednesday night. The Dodgers exploded for 11 runs in the top of the first inning Wednesday, added one in the second and three more in the third, and cruised home from there, winning as a -185 favorite on the MLB betting line and covering against the run line at a price of -125.

Also, Game 3 zoomed over a total of 9.5 runs in the first inning! So the overs are now 2-1 in this NLCS.

On the night, Los Angeles banged out 16 hits, including five home runs.

With Wednesday's win, the Dodgers are now 6-2 this postseason.

Meanwhile, Wednesday's loss snapped Atlanta's seven-game winning streak this postseason.

Game 4 Starting Arms

Rookie righty Wilson is 0/2 on quality starts this season, to go along with four relief appearances. Most recently, back on Sept. 27, he gave up one run through three innings against Boston, and over his last four appearances, he allowed three runs and 13 hits through 13 innings, with five walks and 12 strikeouts.

Atlanta is 1-1 when Wilson starts this season.

This will be Wilson's first-ever action against the Dodgers, which sometimes gives pitchers an edge, at least for the first couple of times through the lineup.

Lefty Kershaw was initially supposed to start Game 2 of this NLCS Tuesday night but was pushed back because of back spasms. Apparently, though, he's ready to go for Thursday night.

Kershaw is 7/12 on quality starts this season and three for his last four. Last Wednesday, in the NLDS against San Diego, he allowed three runs and six hits, including two home runs, through six innings of a 6-5 Dodgers win. And over his last four starts, he's allowed eight runs – only five earned – and 21 hits, although four of those were homers, through 25 innings, with one walk against 28 strikeouts.

On the season, Los Angeles is 10-2 with Kershaw and 4-0 over his last four starts.

In his most recent start against Atlanta, back in May of last season, Kershaw allowed four runs and nine hits through 6 2/3 innings of a 9-4 Dodgers victory.

Game 4 Batting Splits

Los Angeles batted .259 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .338 team OBP and a .498 team slugging percentage. Numbers like those help this lineup rank among the top four in the Majors in this split. Atlanta batted .248/.329/.425 against left-handed pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Dodgers bullpen posted a 2.74 ERA this season, along with an ML-best 1.04 WHIP and a 3.34 K/BB ratio. Numbers like those help this unit rank as the best bullpen in baseball this year. The Braves bullpen put up a 3.50 ERA this season, along with a 1.28 WHIP and a 2.64 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Los Angeles played 30-12 against right-handed starters this season, the second-best mark in the Majors in that split.
  • Atlanta played 8-4 against left-handed starters this season.
  • Los Angeles is 27-9 when favored by -200 or more this season.

Totals Report

  • The totals are split 4-4 in Dodgers games this postseason.
  • Unders are 5-3 in Braves games this postseason.
  • Overs played 14-13 at Globe Life Field this season.
  • Overs are a combined 9-5 when Kershaw and Wilson start this season.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves Game 4 Predictions

Kershaw gets the check-mark in the pitching match-up, and the Dodgers own advantages in both the splits with the sticks and the bullpen comparison. Plus, it looks like they've got momentum on their side. So we're definitely leaning toward Los Angeles. Also, of the Dodgers' 10 wins this season with Kershaw, nine have come by at least two runs. So we'll play LA against the run line for our free MLB pick here.
 
Free Pick: 
Take the Dodgers -1.5 runs
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