Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves Picks & Odds
After taking the opener of this series Friday night, the Dodgers shoot for the series victory when the teams meet again Saturday night at Truist Park. Lefty Clay Kershaw gets the call for LA here against veteran righty Charlie Morton for the struggling Braves. How are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?
MLB Betting Odds
Saturday's baseball betting lines opened Los Angeles and Kershaw at around -145 over Atlanta and Morton, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then dropped the Dodgers 20 cents to around -125.
Dodgers-Braves MLB Betting Preview
Los Angeles took the opener of this series Friday night, 9-5. The Dodgers trailed that game 1-0 through four innings, then put up an eight-spot in the top of the fifth, with no help from home runs but plenty of help from five walks, and held on from there.
LA won Friday as a -145 favorite on the money line and covered against the run line at a price of +120.
Earlier this week, the Dodgers took two of three games at home from St. Louis. So Los Angeles is 3-1 over its last four games.
At 34-23 overall, the Dodgers sit in third place in the NL West, two games behind first-place San Francisco. Los Angeles is also behind schedule as it plays against its season wins over/under of 102.5, which was the highest total in Baseball.
Meanwhile, with Friday's loss, Atlanta is only 2-5 over its last seven games. At 26-29, the Braves sit in second place in the NL East, 3.5 games behind the first-place Mets. Atlanta is also way off the pace as it chases its wins O/U of 91.5.
This series is the first meeting between these two teams this season. Last year the Dodgers came back from a three-games-to-one deficit against the Braves to win the National League championship series in seven games.
Saturday's Pitching Match-Up
Morton is 4/11 on quality starts this season and two for his last three. Monday, he gave up three runs and six hits through five innings of a 5-3 Atlanta win over Washington. And over his last three starts, he's allowed just five runs and 12 hits through 18 innings, with five walks and 23 strikeouts.
The Braves are only 5-6 with Morton this season but 3-0 over his last three starts.
In his most recent start against the Dodgers, for Tampa Bay in last year's World Series, Morton got clipped for five runs and seven hits through 4 1/3 frames of a 6-2 Rays defeat.
Kershaw is 7/12 on quality starts this year and also two for his last three. Last Sunday, he gave up five runs and seven hits, including two home runs, through six innings of a 5-4 LA loss to San Francisco. But in his two starts previous to that, he held Houston and Arizona to three runs through 13 innings, with one walk and 14 whiffs.
The Dodgers are 8-4 with Kershaw this year, 4-1 over his last five starts.
In his last start against Atlanta, in Game 4 of last year's National League championship series, Kershaw pitched five innings of one-run ball; they couldn't get out of the sixth, giving up three more runs in what became a 10-2 Los Angeles loss.
Splits With the Sticks
Los Angeles is batting .248 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .349 team OBP, which ranks No. 1 in the Majors, and a .419 team slugging percentage. Numbers like those lead us to rank this lineup among the top half-dozen in Baseball in this split.
Atlanta is slashing .244/.304/.454 against left-handed pitching this season. But this lineup is now operating without Marcell Ozuna (.338 last season) and could be for quite some time.
- Get more details: LAD/ATL 6/5/21 Matchup Stats
The Dodgers bullpen owns a 3.70 ERA this season, along with a 1.27 WHIP and a 2.29 K/BB ratio.
The Braves bullpen owns a 4.90 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 2.29 K/BB ratio. Numbers like those cause us to rank this unit among the bottom half-dozen or so bullpens in Baseball right now.
MLB Betting Trends
- The Dodgers are 15-13 on the road this season.
- The Braves are 15-17 at home this season.
- The Dodgers are 23-17 against right-handed starters this season.
- The Braves are 6-8 against left-handed starters this season.
- All eight of the Dodgers' wins with Kershaw this season have come by at least two runs.
Overs are 31-25 in Dodgers games this season.
Overs are 29-24 in Braves games this season.
Overs are a combined 15-8 with Morton and Kershaw this season.
Overs are 19-11 in games played at Truist Park this season.
LA Dodgers at Atlanta Prediction 6/5/21
We give Los Angeles our handicapping check-marks in the pitching match-up, in the bullpen comparison, and in the splits with the sticks. So we like the Dodgers here. We also like taking chances. So in knowing they'll bat nine times, we'll play LA against the run line, getting a price of around +130.