LA Dodgers at San Diego Padres Odds, Analysis, Predictions

September 28, 9:40 PM EDT

Betting Odds

LAD -139 / SD +129
7.5un -120

The Dodgers are trying to clinch the best record in Baseball while the Padres are working on locking down a wild-card berth, heading into the middle game of this three-game NL West rivalry series in San Diego Wednesday night. Joe Musgrove takes his turn for the Padres here against hot lefty Julio Urias for Los Angeles. How are we playing this game with our free LAD/SD pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Wednesday's baseball betting lines opened Los Angeles and Urias at around -140 over San Diego and Musgrove, with an over/under of 7.5 runs. Early betting action then edged the Dodgers up to -145.

Dodgers-Padres MLB Betting Preview

San Diego grabbed the opener of this series Tuesday night, 4-3 in 10 innings. The Padres led that game early 2-0 and 3-2 late, let Los Angeles tie it at 3-3 with a run in the top of the ninth, then won it with a walk-off walk in the bottom of the tenth. How exciting. Tuesday's game went off as a pick 'em and played under a total of 7.5. With Tuesday's victory, San Diego is 11-2 over its last 13 games. At 86-68 overall, the Padres own the No. 2 spot in the NL wild-card standings, with a magic number of five, relative to fourth-place Milwaukee, to clinch a playoff berth. With Tuesday's loss, the Dodgers are 3-4 over their last seven games. But at 106-48 overall, Los Angeles leads Houston by 4.5 games in the battle for home-field advantage in the upcoming World Series. LA leads the season series with San Diego 12 games to five.

Wednesday's Pitching Match-Up

Musgrove is 19/28 on quality starts this season but only one for his last four. Last Thursday, he held St. Louis to one run and five hits through five innings, although San Diego lost that game 5-4. But over his three starts previous to that, he gave up nine runs - eight earned - and five home runs through 15 2/3 innings. The Padres are 18-10 with Musgrove this season, and that's even probably a couple of games worse than they should be, based on his performances. Over his last five starts against the Dodgers, three last year and two earlier this season, Musgrove allowed 12 ER and 20 hits through 27 1/3 innings, with 11 walks against 31 strikeouts. San Diego played 2-3 in those five games. Urias is 18/29 on quality starts this year and five for his last six. Last Thursday, he held Arizona to one run and three hits through 5 1/3 innings of a 3-2 Los Angeles win. And he hasn't allowed more than two runs in an outing since before the All-Star break! The Dodgers are 20-9 with Urias this season, 16-1 his last 17 times out! Over his last six starts against San Diego, three last season and three already this season, Urias allowed ten runs and 19 hits through 34 innings, with 15 walks against 29 whiffs. The Dodgers played 5-1 in those six games.

Splits With the Sticks

Los Angeles is batting .260 against right-handed pitching this season, with an ML-best .338 team OBP and an ML-best .451 team slugging percentage. Numbers like those lead us to rank this line-up as the best in Baseball in this split. The Padres are slashing .246/.321/.388 against left-handed pitching.

The Bullpens

The San Diego bullpen owns a 3.81 ERA this season, along with a 1.22 WHIP. The Dodgers pen owns a 2.95 ERA and an ML-best 1.06 WHIP.

MLB Betting Trends

Los Angeles is an ML-best 52-27 on the road this season and an ML-best 76-32 against right-handed starters. The Padres are 41-32 at home and 31-22 against left-handed starters.

Totals Report

  • The Unders are 76-65 in Dodgers games this season.
  • The Unders are 78-72 in Padres games.
  • The Unders are 40-32 at Petco Park this season.

Dodgers at Padres Betting Prediction 9/28/22

We give Urias the edge in the pitching match-up because of the better recent track record against these opponents. From there, Los Angeles owns the best line-up in the Majors against RH pitching and perhaps the best bullpen in Baseball. So we like LA here. We also like chasing better prices. So in knowing the visitors will bat nine times, we'll give the 1.5 runs against the run line, catching +123.

Free Pick: 
Take the Dodgers -1.5 +123