LA Dodgers at Atlanta Braves Pick 10/23/21 - Odds & Predictions

October 23, 7:38 PM EDT

Betting Odds

LAD -175/Atl +155

Los Angeles Dodgers (106-56) at Atlanta Braves (88-73), 10/17/21

When: 7:38 pm ET Sunday, Oct. 17

Where: Truist Park

Moneyline: LAD -175/Atl +155

Over/under: 7.5

The Atlanta Braves take their second shot at clinching a pennant when they host the Dodgers for Game 6 of this National League championship series Saturday night. Atlanta leads this series three games to two but it was 3-1, until LA won Game 5 Thursday night. Now the Braves are looking to avoid the same fate they suffered last season, when they totally blew a 3-1 NLCS lead to the Dodgers.

The baseball futures betting opened Los Angeles as a -210 favorite to win this NLCS, with Atlanta getting +180 as the underdog. Now, with the Braves one win away with two shots on their home field they’re favored at -210, with the Dodgers now getting +170 as underdogs.

Ian Anderson gets another call for Atlanta here while it looks like LA will go with another bullpen game. How are we playing this game with our free baseball betting pick?

NLCS Betting Odds

The baseball betting lines opened Los Angeles at around -175 for Saturday night, with an over/under of eight runs. Both those figures were holding relatively steady in the early betting action.

Dodgers-Braves NLCS Betting Preview

Atlanta leads this NLCS three games to two following LA’s 11-2 Game 5 victory Thursday night in Los Angeles. The Braves actually took an early 2-0 lead Thursday but the Dodgers roared back with three runs in the bottom of the second, one in the third and two in the fifth to stay alive in their quest for a World Series repeat.

Los Angeles won Thursday as a -125 favorite while going with a bullpen game, as none of seven Dodgers pitchers got more than six outs. LA also covered against the run line at a price of +150.

Also, Game 5 played over a total of 7.5.

So Atlanta is now 6-3 this postseason, the Dodgers 5-5.

Also, the overs are now 4-1 in this series.

Los Angeles won 18 more games during the regular season than Atlanta, 106-88, and took the season series four games to two.

Game 6 Pitching Match-Up

Anderson is making his third start of this postseason and second in this NLCS. Twelve days ago in the NLDS he held Milwaukee scoreless on three hits through five innings of a 3-0 Atlanta victory. Then last Sunday in this NLCS he gave up two runs on three hits and three walks through just three innings, although the Braves rallied to win that game 5-4.

Atlanta played 13-11 with Anderson this season and it’s 2-0 with him this postseason.

Over four career starts against the Dodgers this season, two in last year’s playoffs and two this season. Anderson allowed eight runs on 10 hits and 13 walks through just 14 1/3 innings. The Braves played 1-3 in those games.

As of this writing Los Angeles had not announced a starting pitcher and it looked like they were going with another bullpen game, perhaps involving lefty David Price.

The Dodgers played 25-21 this season in games started by guys not named Buehler, Scherzer, Urias, Kershaw or Bauer, and now they’re 2-1 in such games this postseason.

Splits With the Sticks

The Dodgers batted .245 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .334 team OBP and a .425 team slugging percentage. LA’s also been held to two runs or less five times in 10 games this postseason.

The Braves batted .244 this season, with a .319 team OBP and a .435 team slugging percentage.

The Bullpens

The Atlanta bullpen posted a 3.97 ERA this season, along with a 1.32 WHIP and a 2.47 K/BB ratio. This unit has also allowed 14 runs and 23 hits through 23 1/3 innings of work in this NLCS.

The Los Angeles bullpen posted a 3.16 ERA this season, which ranked No. 2 in Baseball, along with a 1.19 WHIP, which ranked No. 3, and a 2.42 K/BB ratio. This unit has also allowed 10 runs and 23 hits through 29 1/3 innings in this NLCS.

MLB Betting Trends

  • The Dodgers played 48-33 on the road this season.
  • The Braves played 42-38 at home.
  • The Dodgers played 73-42 against right-handed starters this season.

Totals Report

Unders played 81-70 in Dodgers games this season.

Unders played 75-74 in Braves games.

Overs played 40-31 at Truist Park this season.

Overs are 12-10 with Anderson this season.

Dodgers at Braves Game 6 Prediction

Los Angeles gets our handicapping check-mark in the pitching match-up here and the sticks look about even, so LA should be favored. But not by that much. Also, the Dodgers are little banged-up, down a couple people, and going with a bullpen that just threw a complete game two days ago. Betting baseball is often about betting value and we like the value here with the home-dog Braves.
Free Pick: 
Take the Braves +155