Jays at Rays Betting Analysis & Prediction

May 24, 6:40 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Tor +168/TB -183
8.5un -113

The Rays took the opener of this AL East series Monday night, but the Blue Jays scored 20 runs on Tuesday, setting up an intriguing third game Wednesday night at the Trop. A couple of lefties hit the hill here as Shane McClanahan goes for Tampa Bay against Yusei Kikuchi for Toronto.

Who do we like for our free Jays/Rays pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Wednesday's baseball betting market opened Tampa and McClanahan at around -165 over Toronto and Kikuchi, with an over/under of eight runs. Early betting action then steamed the Blue Jays 35 cents to -200.

Tampa could also be found "getting" around +100, giving the run and a half on the run line.

Blue Jays-Rays Betting Preview

Tampa Bay won the first game of this series Monday 6-4, but Toronto took Tuesday's game 20-1. Both games played over on the totals.

Tuesday's win snapped a five-game losing skid for the Blue Jays. They're also just 2-7 over their last nine games. At 26-23 overall, Toronto is tied with Boston for seventh place in the American League.

Meanwhile, with Tuesday's loss, the Rays are 5-4 over their last nine games. At 35-15 overall, Tampa Bay leads the American League by three games over second-place Baltimore.

The Blue Jays lead the season series with the Rays three games to two.

Wednesday's Pitching Match-Up

McClanahan is 7/10 on quality starts this season and three for his last four. Last Friday, he only needed 83 pitches to get 21 outs, holding Milwaukee scoreless through seven innings of a 1-0 Tampa Bay win. And over his last four starts, he's allowed just five runs and 20 hits through 23 innings, with 11 walks but 26 strikeouts.

Based on his performances, the Rays are 9-1 with McClanahan this season, and that's about what they should be.

Over his last four starts against Toronto, one earlier this season and three last season, McClanahan allowed six runs and 16 hits through 23 innings, with six walks against 23 whiffs. Tampa won three of those four games.

Kikuchi is only 3/9 on quality starts this year and 0 for his last two. Last Friday, he gave up three runs on three hits and four walks through 4 2/3 innings of a 6-2 Blue Jays loss to Baltimore. And just before that, Atlanta got him for five runs - four earned - and three home runs through only four frames, although the Jays rallied late to win that game 6-5.

Toronto is 7-2 with Kikuchi this year, although that's probably two games better than they should be.

Over his last three starts against the Rays, one earlier this season and two last season, Kikuchi allowed four runs and 11 hits through 16 innings, with three walks against 22 K's. The Blue Jays won two of those three games.

Splits With the Sticks

Toronto is batting .267 against left-handed pitching this season, with a .333 team OBP and a .398 team slugging percentage.

Tampa Bay is slashing .303/.363/.572 against left-handed pitching.

The Bullpens

The Rays bullpen owns a 4.48 ERA this season, along with a 1.30 WHIP and a 1.94 K/BB ratio.

The Jays pen owns a 4.02 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 2.66 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

Toronto is 13-14 on the road this season and 5-5 against left-handed starters.

Tampa is an ML-best 22-5 at home and 7-2 against left-handed starters.

Totals Report

  • The overs are 24-23 in Blue Jays games this season.
  • The overs are 29-18 in Rays games.
  • The overs are 3-1 in Jays-Rays games this season.
  • The overs are 16-10 at Tropicana Field this season.

Toronto at Tampa Bay Runline Pick 5/24/23

McClanahan gets the checkmark in the pitching match-up. From there, Tampa Bay still owns an edge with the sticks, despite Toronto's performance Tuesday night, while the bullpens look about even. So we like the Rays on the bounce-back in this spot. But we don't like that price. So we'll take a chance and play Tampa Bay against the run line.
Free Pick: 
Take Tampa bay -1.5 +114