Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals World Series Game 3 Pick
The Nationals shocked the baseball world by taking the first two games of this World Series from the heavily-favored Astros in Houston. Now the Nats get to host Games 3 and 4 and, if necessary, 5 Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Washington cashed in as a big underdog on the MLB betting odds for both Games 1 and 2, and it's lined as a home dog for Game 3. How are we playing this one for our free MLB pick?
MLB Betting Odds
MLB World Series betting odds opened Houston at around -120 for Game 3 over Washington, with an over/under of seven runs. Early betting action then bumped the Astros to -135 and the total to eight.
Houston could also be gotten at around +125, giving the run and a half on the baseball betting run line.
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Game 3 Set-Up
Washington grabbed the opener of this series Tuesday night 5-4, then barged to a 12-3 Game 2 victory Wednesday night. The Nationals beat Gerrit Cole as +175 dogs in Game 1, then beat Justin Verlander getting +155 in Game 2.
Washington is now 10-2 this post-season, riding an eight-game winning streak.
Houston, meanwhile, is 7-6 this post-season.
Both games in this World Series played over their run totals, and both played over their runs/hit/errors totals.
Game 3 Starting Arms
The 35-year-old Sanchez, by our stringent standards, finished 12/30 on quality starts this season but three for his last four. He's also three outs away from 2/2 this post-season. Most recently, back in Game 1 of that NLCS against St. Louis two weeks ago, he came within four outs of a no-hitter, eventually allowing just one hit and one walk through 7 2/3 innings of a 2-0 Washington win. And in Game 1 of that NLDS against the Dodgers, he allowed only one run and four hits through five innings, with nine strikeouts, although the Nats lost that game 10-4.
So Sanchez has allowed just eight earned runs over his last six starts, covering 38 2/3 innings.
Washington played 17-13 with Sanchez during the regular season, and it's 1-1 with him this post-season.
Sanchez last pitched against Houston back in 2016, when he was still with Detroit, and that's already a long time ago.
The 36-year-old Greinke finished 22/33 on quality starts this year and three for his last four, but he's 0/3 this post-season. Most recently, back in Game 4 of that ALCS against the Yankees a week ago, Greinke allowed just one run and three hits, although he also walked four, through 4 1/3 innings of an 8-3 Astros victory. But in three starts in these playoffs, he's allowed ten runs and 15 hits, including five homers, through 14 innings.
Houston played 8-2 with Greinke this season, but it's 1-2 with him this post-season.
Greinke started one game against the Nationals this season, back in June when he was still with Arizona, tossing 7 1/3 innings of two-hit, shutout ball in a 5-0 Diamondbacks win.
Game 3 Batting Splits
Washington batted .258/.337/.448 against right-handed pitching this season. The Nationals have since scored 62 runs in 12 games (5.2 RPG) this post-season.
Houston batted .274/.349/.492 against RH pitching this season, which is why we ranked this lineup as the best in the Majors in this split. However, Astros bats have been a bit chilly in these playoffs, scoring 48 runs over their 13 games (3.7 RPG). Houston also loses a regular stick for these games in DC, with no DH, although Greinke's not too bad; he hit .280 with three homers this year.
The Nationals bullpen ranked among the worst in baseball this season, posting an ML-worst 5.66 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP while allowing an .800 OPS. But Washington relievers have closed out every win during this eight-game post-season streak.
The Astros pen ranked among the best in baseball this season, posting a 3.75 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP while holding foes to a .694 OPS. However, this unit gave up eight runs over the last three innings Wednesday night.
MLB Betting Trends
- Houston played 47-34 on the road this season.
- Washington played 50-31 at home this season.
- Houston played 68-44 against right-handed starters this season.
- Washington played 69-52 against RH starters this season.
- Unders played 84-71 in Astros games this season.
- Unders played 76-75 in Nationals games this season.
- Overs played 41-35 in games played at Nationals Park this season.
- Unders played a combined 36-29 with Sanchez and Greinke this season.
- Get more details: Astros at Nationals MLB Match-up Stats
Astros at Nationals Prediction 10/25/19
Many signs point toward Houston here; Greinke owns an edge in the pitching match-up, the Astros own advantages with the sticks and in the bullpens, and they're now playing in desperation mode. However, Washington is riding a wave of momentum and an eight-game winning streak, and it's getting a home-dog price. We're riding the Nationals for our free MLB pick on Game 3.
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