Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees Game 5 Pick

October 18, 7:08 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Astros -130/Yankees +120

The Houston Astros find themselves one win away from another trip to the World Series after taking Game 4 of this American League Championship Series from the Yankees Thursday night. And the Astros get to throw one of their aces against the Pinstripes for Game 5 Friday night in the Bronx. How are we playing this one with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

MLB playoff betting odds opened New York at around -130 for Game 5 over Houston, with an over/under of 7.5 runs. Early betting action then flipped the Astros into -130 favorites.

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Astros vs. Yankees Game 5 Set-Up

New York took the opener of this ALCS down in Houston last Saturday, but the Astros have won the next three games, including an 8-3 decision in Game 4 Thursday night. The Yankees took an early lead Thursday with a run in the bottom of the first inning, but Houston got a three-run homer from George Springer at the top of the third and another three-run bomb from Carlos Correa in the top of the sixth and hung on from there for the victory.

The Astros cashed in at +120 underdogs on the MLB betting line Thursday night, and the game played over a total of 8.5 runs.

With Thursday's win, the Astros are 6-3 in these MLB playoffs.

With Thursday's loss, New York is 4-3 in these playoffs.

Houston took the regular-season series from the Yankees this year four games to three.

Game 5 Starting Arms

This pitching match-up is a rematch of Game 2 of this ALCS, a 3-2 Astros victory.

Lefty Paxton, by our stringent standards, is only 12/31 on quality starts this season, and 0/2 in these playoffs. Last Sunday in Game 2 of this ALCS, he gave up one run on four hits and two walks through just 2 1/3 innings of that game New York eventually lost 3-2 in extra innings. And in his one start in the ALDS against Minnesota, he allowed three runs and five hits, including a couple of home runs, through 4 2/3 innings, although the Yankees won that game 10-4.

On the season, New York is 21-10 with Paxton, 1-1 in these playoffs.

In three starts against Houston, this season, Paxton allowed seven runs and 17 hits through 11 1/3 innings, with 15 strikeouts but also eight walks. The Yankees lost two of those three games.

Verlander, meanwhile, is 26/37 on quality starts this season and 2/3 in these playoffs. Last Sunday, in Game 2 of this ALCS, Verlander allowed two runs and five hits through 6 2/3 innings of that 3-2 Houston win. And in three starts in these MLB playoffs, he's allowed six runs and 13 hits through 17 1/3 innings, with 20 strikeouts against eight walks.

The Astros are 26-11 with Verlander this season, 2-1 in these playoffs.

In three starts this season against New York, Verlander allowed eight runs and 16 hits through 19 2/3 innings, with 22 whiffs. Houston won all three of those games.

Game 5 Batting Splits

Houston batted .274/.362/.505 against left-handed pitching during the regular season. The Astros had only scored a total of 26 runs through their first eight playoff games but popped off for eight Thursday night.

New York batted .265/.336/.484 against right-handed pitching during the regular season. The Yankees have since scored a total of 36 runs through seven postseason games, but they've missed slugger Giancarlo Stanton for the last three games, and he remains iffy for Friday night.

The Bullpens

The Yankees bullpen posted a 4.08 ERA this season and a 1.32 WHIP while allowing a .729 OPS. New York relievers have since allowed nine earned runs and 20 hits through 32 2/3 innings of work in these playoffs.

The Astros pen posted a 3.75 ERA this year and a 1.20 WHIP while holding foes to a .694 OPS. Houston relievers have since allowed 13 ER and 29 hits through 27 innings in these playoffs.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Houston finished 47-34 on the road this season.
  • New York finished 57-24 at home this season.
  • Houston played a ML-best 39-11 against left-handed starters this season.
  • New York played 70-41 against right-handed starters this season.

Totals Report

  • Unders played 84-71 in Astros games this season.
  • Overs played 84-72 in Yankees games this season.
  • Overs are 6-5 in Yankees-Astros games this season.
  • Unders played 44-35 in games played at Yankee Stadium this season.
  • Overs are 20-10 this season with Paxton.
  • Unders are 24-12 this season with Verlander.

Astros at Yankees Prediction 10/18/19

Houston is hot, with three wins in a row in this series, while New York looks lost, striking out 13 times Thursday night, committing four errors. Now the Astros get to throw Verlander on regular rest, and they're excellent against left-handed pitching. We're going with Houston here to finish off this series, with a World Series berth for the taking.

Free Pick: 
Take the Astros -130

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