Houston Astros at San Diego Padres Pick & Analysis

September 3, 10:10 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Hous -126/SD +116
9ov -118

The AL West-leading Astros visit the fading Padres for a three-game weekend series in San Diego starting Friday night. Houston is coming off back-to-back shutout losses at Seattle earlier this week while the Padres are now trailing in the National League wild-card race. Newcomer Jake Arrieta, dumped by the Cubs for poor performance, takes the pill for the home team here against Jose Urquidy for the visitors. How are we playing this game with today's baseball pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Friday's baseball betting lines opened Houston at around -150 for this game, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then dropped the Astros to -125. Houston could also be found getting around +120, giving the run and a half on the run line.

Astros-Padres MLB Betting Preview

Houston just lost two of three games at Seattle, losing Wednesday’s series rubber match 1-0. The Astros then had Thursday off. Just before that, though, Houston took two of three games from Texas, and just before that, it took two of three from Kansas City. Going back a bit further, the Astros are 3-1 over their last four series and 8-5 over their last 13 games. At 78-55 overall, Houston leads the AL West by 4.5 games over second-place Oakland, with 29 games to go. San Diego, meanwhile, just took two of three games at Arizona, missing out on the sweep by losing Wednesday’s series finale 8-3. The Padres then also had Thursday off. Just before that, San Diego split two games with the Angels, and just before that, it got swept three games by the Dodgers. Going back a bit further, the Padres are 1-4-1 over their last six series and 5-14 over their previous 19 games. At 71-63 overall, San Diego is out of the running in the NL West and now trails Cincinnati by a half-game in the battle for the second NL wild-card spot. This series is the second meeting between these two teams this season; back in May, the Padres took two of three games from the Astros in Houston.

Friday's Pitching Match-Up

Arrieta is just 4/21 on quality starts this season and 0 for his last 14. Two weeks ago, in his first start for his new team after getting picked up from the Cubs, Arrieta allowed five runs and seven hits through just 3 1/3 innings of a 7-5 Padres loss to Colorado. He then missed the last two weeks with a sore hamstring. Over his last five starts for the Cubs, Arrieta got bombed for 24 earned runs and six home runs through just 15 1/3 innings of work. The Cubs, who are terrible, played 6-14 with Arrieta this season, and the Padres are 0-1 with him. This will be Arrieta’s first start against Houston since 2016, which is a long time ago. Urquidy will be making his first start since June, after missing the last two months with a sore shoulder. He's 7/14 on quality starts this year and had a run of three in a row interrupted by his injury. Over his last four starts, he allowed just six runs and 12 hits through 22 1/3 innings, with three walks against 19 strikeouts. The Astros are 9-5 with Urquidy this year, and he can claim some fair credit for that. This will be Urquidy’s first career start against San Diego.

Splits With the Sticks

Houston is batting .265 against right-handed pitching this season, which ranks No. 1 in the Majors, with a .337 team OBP, which ranks No. 2, and a .438 team slugging percentage. San Diego is slashing .242/.323/.411 against right-handed pitching.

The Bullpens

The Houston bullpen owns a 4.03 ERA this season, along with a 1.29 WHIP and a 2.62 K/BB ratio. The Padres pen owns a 3.22 ERA, which ranks No. 3 in Baseball, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 2.79 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Houston is 37-30 on the road this season.
  • San Diego is 41-29 at home.
  • Houston is 48-31 against right-handed starters this season.
  • San Diego is 48-48 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

Overs are 70-58 in Astros games this season. Overs are 69-63 in Padres games. Overs are 35-34 in games played at Petco Park this season.

Urquidy gets our check-mark in the pitching match-up, and Houston gets the check-mark in the splits with the sticks. Plus, San Diego's fading. So we're betting the Astros here for our free base-ball pick for Friday.

Free Pick: 
Take Houston -116