Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies Game 5 Betting Predictions

Date: 
November 3, 8:06 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
Hous -149/Phil +138
Total: 
7.5un -118

After splitting the first four games of this World Series, the Astros and Phillies meet for a huge Game 5 Thursday night in Philadelphia. The Phillies led the Series two games to one, but Houston threw a combined no-hitter to win Game 4 Wednesday night.

Justin Verlander makes his second start of this Series here against Noah Syndergaard, who began this season in the AL West for Philadelphia.

Which way are we going with our free Game 5 World Series betting pick?

World Series Betting Odds

The Game 5 betting lines opened Houston and Verlander at around -160 over Philly and Syndergaard, with an over/under of 7.5 runs. Early betting action then dipped that line to -155.

World Series Game 5 Betting Preview

Houston evened this World Series up at two games apiece with a 5-0 Game 4 victory Wednesday night. The Astros piled across five runs in the top of the fifth inning while getting six hitless innings from starter Christian Javier and three hitless innings from the bullpen to complete the second World Series no-hitter of all time.

With Wednesday's win, Houston is 9-2 this postseason.

With Wednesday's loss, Philadelphia is 11-4 this postseason.

The Astros finished 19 games ahead of the Phillies in the regular-season standings and took two of three games from Philly in the final series of the season one month ago.

Game 5 Pitching Match-Up

Syndergaard hit just 8/24 on quality starts this season, spending the first four months with the Angels, then coming over to Philadelphia in a deadline trade. He's also made three appearances this postseason, allowing one run and three hits through 5 1/3 innings. But this will be his first action since Oct. 22, when he threw 1 1/3 innings of scoreless relief in the NLCS against San Diego.

The Phillies played 6-3 with Syndergaard during the regular season, and they're 1-0 with him this
postseason.

Earlier this season, while still with the Angels, Syndergaard started twice against Houston, allowing three runs and five hits through 9 1/3 innings, with six walks and only four strikeouts. Los Angeles split those two games.

Verlander hit 19/28 on quality starts this season, but he's only 1/3 this postseason. Last week in Game 1 of this World Series, he got touched for five runs through five innings of a 6-5 Astros loss. And over three starts this postseason; he's allowed 12 runs and 19 hits through 15 innings.

Houston played 20-8 with Verlander during the regular season, and while it's 2-1 with him this postseason, he's been hit hard twice.

One month ago, Verlander tossed five hitless innings against the Phillies, with ten strikeouts, in a 10-0 Astros win. However, that game was totally meaningless to both teams.

Splits With the Sticks

Houston batted .242 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .315 team OBP and a .411 team slugging percentage.

Philadelphia slashed .248/.309/.418 against right-handed pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Phillies bullpen posted a 4.27 ERA this season, along with a 1.39 WHIP and a 2.32 K/BB ratio. But this unit's been better than that this postseason, converting five of six save opportunities.

The Astros bullpen put up an ML-best 2.80 ERA this season, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 3.06 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Houston played 51-30 on the road this season and 64-44 against right-handed starters.
  • Philadelphia played 47-34 at home this season and 59-57 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

  • The Unders played a lopsided 93-61 in Astros games this season.
  • The Overs played 80-75 in Phillies games this season.
  • The Overs played 40-36 at Citizens Bank Park this season.

Houston at Philadelphia Game 5 Money Line Pick

In anticipation of a bounce-back effort, we give Verlander the edge in the pitching match-up. Houston also owns the advantage in the bullpen comparison, while the splits with the sticks look about even. We don’t usually like playing against so high a price, but we’re betting the Astros to take Game 5 Thursday night.
 
Free Pick: 
Take Houston -149