Houston Astros at New York Yankees Odds & Free Pick

Date: 
June 24, 7:05 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
HOU +118 / NYY -128
Total: 
7.5

In what may be the best match-up of this young baseball season so far, the ML-best Yankees and Luis Severino battle Justin Verlander and the Astros in the second game of a four-game series at Yankee Stadium Friday night.

New York rallied late to take Thursday night's series opener. How are we playing Friday's game with our free baseball betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Friday's baseball betting lines opened New York at around -130 over Houston, with an over/under of 7.5 runs. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Astros-Yankees MLB Betting Preview

New York rallied late to take the opener of this series Thursday night, 7-6. The Yankees spotted Houston a three-spot in the top of the first inning, then tied it at 3-3 on a Stanton dong in the bottom of the first. New York fell down 6-3 in the third and still trailed by that score going into the bottom of the ninth, then tied it on a three-run homer from Hicks and won it on an RBI base-hit from Judge.

The Yankees won Thursday as -135 favorites on the dime line but didn't cover against the run line. Also, Thursday's game played over a total of eight runs in the third inning.

With Thursday's victory, New York is 12-2 over its last 14 games. At 52-18 overall, the best record in the Majors, the Yankees lead the AL East by 12.5 games over second-place Toronto.

With Thursday's loss, the Astros are 6-2 over their last eight games. At 43-26 overall Houston leads the AL West by 9.5 games over second-place Texas.

This series is the first meeting between these teams this season. Last year New York took the season series from the Astros four games to two.

Saturday's Pitching Match-Up

Severino is 4/12 on quality starts this season and two for his last three. Last Sunday, he gave up five runs and two home runs through five innings of a 10-9 New York loss to Toronto. But over his two starts previous to that, he held the Cubs and Detroit to one run and eight hits through 13 innings, with two walks and 20 strikeouts.

The Yankees are 9-3 with Severino this season, but that's probably two wins better than they should be, based on his performances.

This will be Severino's first start against Houston since Game 3 of the 2019 AL championship series when he gave up two runs through 4 1/3 innings and took a loss.

By our strict standards, Verlander is 8/13 on quality starts this year and three for his last four. Last Saturday, he got touched by the White Sox for seven runs - four earned - and nine hits through just 3 2/3 innings of a 7-0 Astros defeat. But over his three starts previous to that, he allowed eight runs - only four of which were earned - and 11 hits through 21 innings, with five walks against 23 whiffs.

Houston is 9-4 with Verlander this season, and that sounds about right.

This will be Verlander's first start against the Yankees since 2019 when over four outings, two in that ALCS, he gave up 12 runs through 26 2/3 innings. The Astros won three of those four games.

Splits With the Sticks

Houston is batting .243 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .322 team OBP and a .427 team slugging percentage. The Astros have also scored at least five runs six times over their last ten games.

New York is slashing .250/.333/.440 against right-handed pitching. The Yankees have also scored at least five runs four times over their last seven games.

The Bullpens

The New York bullpen owns a 2.88 ERA this season, which ranks No. 2 in Baseball, along with a 1.12 WHIP. This unit is still operating without closer Chapman, although they don't seem to miss him too much.

Even after blowing Thursday's game, the Houston pen owns an ML-best 2.68 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP.

MLB Betting Trends

  • The Astros are 23-15 on the road this season and 29-19 against right-handed starters.
  • The Yankees are an ML-best 30-7 at home and an ML-best 35-11 against RH starters.

Totals Report

  • The Under is a lopsided 44-23 in Astros games this season.
  • The Under is 36-33 in Yankees games.
  • The Under is a combined 16-9 with Severino and Verlander this season.
  • The Under is 20-17 at Yankee Stadium this season.

Astros at Yankees Prediction 6/24/22

Verlander got touched up a bit his last time out; we expect a rebound performance Friday night. Also, it's not often you can get a guy like JV and perhaps the best bullpen in baseball at an underdog price. The Yankees may be the best team in Baseball, but we like the betting value with Houston Friday night. 

Free Pick: 
Take Houston +118