Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox Odds & Predictions

June 10, 7:10 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Hous +100/Bos -110
9ov -115

After taking the first two games of this series between American League playoff contenders, the Astros shoot for the sweep of the Red Sox Thursday evening at Fenway Park. Boston sends lefty Eduardo Rodriguez to the hill to avoid the sweep against Zach Greinke for the visitors. How are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Thursday's baseball betting lines opened Boston and Rodriguez at around -115 over Houston and Greinke, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then dipped the Sox to -110.

Astros-Red Sox MLB Betting Preview

Houston won the opener of this series Tuesday night 7-1, then won Wednesday's game 8-3. The Astros lashed 11 hits Tuesday, five for extra bases, then 17 hits Wednesday, nine for extra bases. Houston won as a -130 favorite on the MLB betting line Tuesday with Framber Valdez, then as a +120 dog Wednesday with Jake Odorizzi.

With Wednesday's win, the Astros are 3-0 over their last three series and 8-2 over their last ten games.

At 37-26 overall, Houston sits in second place in the AL West, just one game behind first-place Oakland. The Astros are also playing ahead of schedule against their season wins over/under of 87.5.

With Wednesday's loss, Boston is 1-2 over its last three series and 5-5 over its previous ten games.

At 37-25 overall, the Red Sox sit in second place in the AL East, a game and a half behind first-place Tampa Bay. Boston is also playing ahead of schedule against its wins O/U this season of 80.5.

Houston leads the season series with the Sox five games to one.

Thursday's Pitching Match-Up

Lefty Rodriguez is 2/11 on quality starts this season and 0 for his last seven. Last Saturday against the Yankees, he gave up three runs and five hits through 5 1/3 innings of a 7-3 Boston win. But over his last five starts, he's been tagged for 22 runs on 35 hits through 25 innings. The Red Sox are 6-5 with Rodriguez this season but only 1-4 over his last five outings. In his most recent start against Houston, ten days ago, Rodriguez got clipped for six runs and seven hits through 4 2/3 innings of an 11-2 Sox loss. Greinke is 7/13 on quality starts this year and three for his last four. Last Friday, he tossed a complete game against Toronto, allowing just one run and six hits through nine innings of a 13-1 Astros win. And over his last four outings, he's allowed just seven runs and 19 hits through 31 innings. Houston is 10-3 with Greinke this year and 5-1 over his last six starts. This will be Greinke's first start against Boston since 2016 when he was with Arizona, and that was a long time ago.

Splits With the Sticks

Houston is batting .288 against left-handed pitching this season, with a .351 team OBP, which ranks No. 1 in MLB, and a .458 team slugging percentage. Numbers like those lead us to rank this lineup among the top three in Baseball in this split. Boston is slashing .252/.314/.440 against right-handed pitching this season. Numbers like those lead us to rank this lineup among the top five in that split.

The Bullpens

The Astros bullpen owns a 4.24 ERA this season, along with a 1.33 WHIP and a 2.27 K/BB ratio. The Red Sox pen owns a 3.52 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 2.51 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

  • The Astros are 15-13 on the road this season.
  • The Red Sox are 17-15 at home this season.
  • The Astros are 17-13 against left-handed starters this season.
  • The Red Sox are 25-18 against right-handed starters this season.

Totals Report

Overs are 36-23 in Astros games this season. Unders are 33-28 in Red Sox games this season. Overs are a combined 16-8 with Rodriguez and Greinke this season. Unders are 16-15 in games played at Fenway Park this season. Unders are 4-2 in Astros-Red Sox games this season.

Astros vs. Red Sox Prediction 6/10/21

Greinke gets the check-mark in the pitching match-up, and while Boston owns an edge in the bullpen comparison, Houston owns an edge in the splits with the sticks. Plus, the Astros are just playing the better ball as of late, as perhaps the Sox begin returning to Earth following their great start to this season. We like Houston for our free baseball betting pick for Thursday.

Free Pick: 
Take the Astros +110