Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox Odds & Free Pick

May 17, 7:10 PM EDT

Betting Odds

HOU +108/BOS -118
8.5ov -118

Boston won the opener of this three-game ALCS re-match series at Fenway Monday night and shoots for the series victory when the teams meet again Tuesday night. Nathan Eovaldi hits the hill for the home team here against Jose Urquidy for the visitors.

Who do we like here with our free baseball betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Tuesday's baseball betting lines opened this game at right around a pick 'em, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then bumped Boston into a -115 favorite.

Astros-Red Sox MLB Betting Preview

Boston grabbed the opener of this series Monday night, 6-3. The Red Sox trailed 3-2 but scored one run in the bottom of the seventh, then three runs in the bottom of the eighth for the victory.

Boston won Monday as a -125 favorite on the dime line, and the game just sneaked under a total of 9.5 runs.

With Monday's win, the Red Sox are 4-2 over their last six games. But at 14-21 overall, Boston already trails the first-place Yankees by 12 games in the AL East.

Even with Monday's loss, Houston is 12-2 over its last 14 games. At 23-13 overall, the Astros are tied for the lead in the AL West with the Angels.

This series is the first meeting between these teams this season. Last year Houston took the season series from the Red Sox five games to two, then beat Boston in six games in the ALCS.

Tuesday's Pitching Match-Up

Eovaldi, by our strict standards, is 2/7 on quality starts this season. Last Wednesday, he gave up three runs and six hits through 6 1/3 innings of a 5-3 Boston loss to Atlanta. And just before that, he gave up three runs and six hits through five frames of a 4-2 Red Sox loss to the White Sox.

Boston is only 2-5 with Eovaldi this season, although that's not all his fault.

Over three starts last year against Houston, including two in the American League championship series, Eovaldi allowed nine runs and 21 hits through 15 1/3 innings. The Sox lost two of those three games, and two of those games played over their totals.

Urquidy is only 1/6 on quality starts this year, but some of that has to do with a short leash. Last Wednesday, in a rain-shortened performance at Minnesota, he allowed one run and three hits through three innings of a game; the Astros eventually won 11-3. And just before that, he tossed six innings of six-hit, shutout ball in a 3-2 Houston victory over Detroit.

The Astros are 4-2 with Urquidy this year, 3-0 his last three times out.

Over two starts last year against the Red Sox, one good and one bad, including one in that ALCS, Urquidy allowed seven runs - six earned - and eight hits through 7 2/3 innings. Houston split those two games, and both games played over their totals.

Splits With the Sticks

Houston is batting .240 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .318 team OBP and a .425 team slugging percentage. The Astros have also scored at least five runs seven times over their last eight games.

Boston is slashing .240/.293/.374 against right-handed pitching. The Red Sox have also scored at least six runs four times over their last six games.

The Bullpens

The Houston bullpen owns a 2.91 ERA this season, along with a 1.17 WHIP.

The Boston pen owns a 4.21 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Houston is 14-9 on the road this season and 12-11 against right-handed starters.
  • Boston is 5-9 at home this season and 10-17 vs. RH starters.

Totals Report

  • The Under is a lopsided 26-10 in Astros games this season.
  • The Under is 20-10 in Red Sox games.
  • The Under is 9-3 at Fenway Park this season.

Astros at Red Sox Prediction 5/17/22

Eovaldi may own nicer numbers than Urquidy, but we're calling this pitching match-up a wash. From there, we give Houston edges in the splits with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison. Plus, despite Monday's result, the Astros are just playing the better ball as of late. So we like Houston to even this series up Tuesday night.      

Free Pick: 
Take Houston +108