Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves Game 5 Odds & Predictions
The Atlanta Braves find themselves one win away from their first World Series title since 1995, heading into Game 5 Sunday night down in Georgia. The Braves stole home-field advantage for this Series by splitting the first two games in Houston, and now they can clinch the championship in front of the home fans Sunday night.
Atlanta began this Series as a +120 underdog to win it; now, the Braves are lined at -580, with the Astros now getting +430 to come back and win the next three games.
As of this writing, Atlanta had not yet announced a starting pitcher for Sunday night, while Houston is going with Game 1 starter (and loser) Framber Valdez.
Who do we like here for our free World Series betting pick?
World Series Game 5 Betting Odds
The World Series betting lines opened Houston at around -115 for Game 5, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Both those figures were holding steady in the early betting action.
Game 5 World Series Betting Preview
Atlanta leads this World Series three games to one after taking Game 4 Saturday night 3-2. The Braves trailed that game 2-0 into the bottom of the seventh inning, then got a two-run homer from Dansby Swanson and a solo shot from Jorge Soler to take the lead and held on from there.
Atlanta won Saturday as a -105 pick ‘em choice on the betting line and the game played under a post-time total of nine runs.
So the under bets are now 3-0-1 in this World Series.
Also, the Braves have outscored Houston 13-11.
Going back into the home stretch of the regular season, Atlanta is now 22-6 over its last 28 games.
Game 5 Pitching Match-Up
Atlanta went with a bullpen game Saturday, and it worked, as six Braves pitchers held Houston to two runs and seven hits. Atlanta might go with lefty starter Max Fried, who lost Game 2 of this Series, or it could go bullpen again.
So far in this Series, Braves relievers have allowed just five runs and 18 hits through 22 1/3 total innings of work.
However, Atlanta only played 15-19 this season in games started by guys not named Fried, Anderson, Morton, Smyly, or Ynoa.
Valdez is making his second start of this World Series. Back in Game 1, he got knocked around for five runs and eight hits, including two home runs, through just two innings of that 6-2 Astros loss. And over four starts this postseason, he's allowed 13 runs - 12 earned - and 24 hits, including four dingers, through just 17 innings.
Still, Houston is 3-1 with Valdez this postseason.
Splits With the Sticks
Houston batted .267 this season, which led the Majors, with a .339 team OBP, which also ranked No. 1, and a .444 team slugging percentage, which ranked No. 3. But the Astros have only scored a total of 11 runs in this Series, and seven of those came in one game.
Atlanta batted .239 against left-handed pitching this season, with a .314 team OBP and a .418 team slugging percentage. The Braves have also only scored a total of 13 runs in this Series, and six of those came in one game.
So neither of these teams is knocking the cover off the ball as of late.
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The Atlanta bullpen posted a 3.97 ERA this season, along with a 1.32 WHIP and a 2.47 K/BB ratio. So far in this World Series, Braves relievers have allowed just four runs and 18 hits through 22 1/3 innings.
The Houston bullpen posted a 4.06 ERA this season, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 2.47 K/BB ratio. So far, this World Series Astros relievers have allowed five runs and 12 hits through 19 1/3 innings.
- Get more details: Astros vs. Braves 10/31/21 Match-up Stats
MLB Betting Trends
- Houston played 44-37 on the road this season.
- Atlanta played 42-38 at home.
- Atlanta played 23-18 this season against left-handed starters.
Overs played 86-68 in Astros games this season.
The Under is 75-74 in Braves games this season.
The Over is 40-31 at Truist Park this season.
The Over is 15-11 with Valdez this season.
World Series Game 5 Predictions
Houston bats are 0/10, with runners in scoring position over the last two games. We expect better Sunday night. We also expect better from Valdez. And Houston's too good to allow itself to get knocked out in five games. We're betting the Astros here, and we might even tickle that +430 to come back and win this Series.