Trevor Bauer has been brilliant this season on the road with a nifty 5-1 W/L record and 2.78 earned run average. The Indians have yet to win a game over Baltimore that he has pitched, but his latest was decent enough pitching six innings allowing three runs. He’ll face an offense today that has scored a combined eight runs in their last five games. Dyaln Bundy takes the mound for the Birds and he’ll be making his second career start and his first five days ago was a disaster allowing four runs in 3 1/3 innings. Lay the money on the road chalk. 

Detroit’s starter Mike Pelfrey’s last two on the road were solid registering a quality start in both. However, he’s 0-6 on the road this season and historically the White Sox line up has very good numbers against him hitting a combined .308 in 130 plate appearances. Chicago’ starter James was lit up in his last against Detroit, but that was during a four game rough patch. He’s been pitching very effectively since holding the opposition to two or fewer runs in his four starts. The White Sox were awful on their road trip, but I feel the return will result in a turnaround.

The Marlins’ starter Wei-Yin Chen pitched well in his last start against the Phillies back in May, but overall his numbers are mediocre against Philadelphia’s roster. Jeremy Hellickson gets the start for the home side and he has great numbers against the Miami line up holding them to a combined .221 batting average. His team has won five of his six career starts against the Marlins and I’m going to bet on that hitting six after tonight.

Not much history to go on with the starters and the betting trends support an over play here. Hmmm. The Brewers’ Junior Guerra has been very good all season with a stellar 1.07 WHIP and 3.06 ERA. He’s been good away from home with a 3.44 road earned run average and has allowed more than three runs just once in his last five road starts. The Pirates rookie starter has looked good for the most part with excellent control with 5 walks and 21 strike outs over 28 innings. Milwaukee has struggled all season to score and the Pittsburgh batters haven’t found their stroke since the break scoring three runs and hitting a meek .179 in their weekend set against Washington. 

The Rangers’ starter A.J. Griffin hasn’t completed six innings in his last five starts and comes into this game off of one his weakest outings this season. The Angels hand the ball to Nick Tropeano who hasn’t received a decision in his last three starts all lost by Los Angeles, but he did pitch adequately in all three. He looked really good in Texas back in late May shutting the Rangers out over 6 2/3 frames, but Griffin was no slouch either back in April on this same field going six innings allowing three runs. The Halos are hot, but the Rangers hold the edge on the season series and are the value play here. 

The Jays send out J.A. Happ to avoid the sweep at the Coliseum and he brings a lot to the table. He’s made six career starts against the A’s holding them to three or fewer runs in each start with his team getting the W in five straight. A few batters on the Oakland roster have had success against him, but all three are ice cold right now. The Athletics counter with Rich Hill who has excelled this season when healthy recording nine quality starts in his last 10 outings and he has held Toronto hitters to a combined career .171 batting average. That said, he missed Friday’s scheduled start with a blister issue and when you delve into the Toronto batter’s numbers you see that Edwin Encarnacion has hit .176 and has accounted for 17 of the Jays’ 35 at bats against Hill. That’s not to say that he can’t continue his success today, but everything considered, Toronto appears to hold the value in this game. 

Boston is on a nice roll, winners of seven of their last eight scoring 4 or more runs in all of their wins. Lefty Eduardo Rodriguez gets the ball for the Red Sox and he’s been a Yankee killer in the past holding them to two or fewer runs in all four of his lifetime starts. That said, he has struggled since returning to the line-up in late May. CC Sabathia has also pitched well against his opponent today, but he’s been awful in his last four starts allowing 21 runs in 23 innings. I considered taking the Red Sox plus the money, but I think the value lies in the total. 

The Birds’ Yovani Gallardo has been having an off year and his numbers on the road are extremely weak. That said, he has held Tampa Bay to three or fewer runs in four lifetime starts and the current roster to a combined batting average of .203 in 69 at bats. It hasn’t been profitable backing the Rays with Archer on the mound and certainly playing them as a favorite wouldn’t be prudent. He has however, been solid for the most part at home bringing a 2.70 home ERA into this game. 

One thing has been consistent for each of these teams and that’s their lack of offense in recent games overall and in this series. The Mariners have scored three or fewer runs in four of their last five and the Royals have done likewise in five of their last six matches. For trend players note that all five games played in this series in 2016 have gone UNDER with the highest combined output being seven runs. Seattle’s starter Wade Miley has had a few rough spots this season, but three of his last four outings have been good and he was ultra-sharp in his lone start against the Royals this season notching a complete game shutout. Volquez has been inconsistent this season and his numbers versus today’s opponent are poor, however he has a 60% QS percentage and could come up with a good one here. I’m going to go with the value on the visitor and ride on the O/U trend.

Two of the better starters in not only the NL but in baseball will be sent out by their teams tonight and there really isn’t much that separates the two. The Nationals’ starter Stephen Strasburg has been brilliant this season and has been overpowering against the Mets striking out a ridiculous 21 in two starts covering 12 2/3 innings. New York though is on a roll with seven victories in their last eight games. Mets’ starter Noah Syndergaard did get lit up for five runs in three innings in Washington in the last meeting, but he’s allowed a total of three runs in three career home starts against the Nationals. I’ll ride the hot hand here.

The Tigers’ starter Justin Verlander looked good in his latest but has struggled in his last two versus the Jays allowing twelve runs in twelve innings and has mediocre numbers against Toronto’s line-up. The Jays counter with Drew Hutchison who was brilliant last season in his home starts and may be up to the task tonight. 

The Angels’ starter Jared Weaver has had a lot of success against the Rays in the past including six innings of two run ball (one earned run) in May against them.  That being said, he’s had only one good start in his last five outings and he’s been atrocious pitching at night with 2-6 record and 7.07 ERA. The Rays starter Drew Smyly has been even worse as of late allowing four or more runs in six of his last seven. The historic numbers of both of tonight’s starters are strong and of course they could revert back to those tonight, but I’ll take my chances on the offenses here being able to combine for more than 9 tonight. 

Neither of tonight’s starters is having a good season and while the Athletics’ Sean Manaea has been pitching better in recent starts holding the opposition to three or fewer runs in four of his last five outings he hasn’t been lasting long. He’s really struggled on the road in his two outing this season owning an 0-2 W/L mark with an earned run average of 12.10! The Twins will send out Tommy Millone who has exactly zero quality starts in six outings this season. He has one lifetime start against the A’s and that came last season when he was ripped for seven runs (five earned) in 2 2/3 innings. The total looks like the play here based on the starters and the Twins highly profitable 50-28 record versus the O/U line this season. 

After a horrendous start to the campaign Angels’ starter Matt Shoemaker has been in impressive over his last eight outings recording seven quality starts. He has limited experience against the Boston line up with a combined fifteen at bats but has yet to give up a hit. The Red Sox will hand the ball to Sean O'Sullivan who will be making his third start of the season. He didn’t look good in either of his first two allowing nine earned runs on seventeen hits. With Boston going through an ugly stretch that has seen them lose five of their last seven matches and the pronounced edge in starters we’ll side with the visitor.

The Tigers send out Justin Verlander who is coming off of a horrid start in his latest and while his historical numbers against the Rays line-up have been strong (.200 BA over 65 ABs) he’s not having a great season statistically with a 4.30 ERA and has been lit up at times during day starts with a 5.93 earned run average this season in those outings. That may not be a problem with the way the Tigers have been hitting the ball scoring 10 runs in each of their last three games. The Rays give the ball to rookie left-hander Blake Snell whose ERA doesn’t reflect his struggles with 25 hits allowed and 11 walks in 20.1 innings. 

Both of these teams have been giving a high return to OVER bettors in their last five games with the Orioles going 5-0 vs. the O/U line and the Mariners 4-1. The pitching match-up suggests that would be a good bet again tonight. Baltimore’s starter Kevin Gausman has had a rough time of it on the road this season going 0-4 with a 5.11 ERA. He’s also been hit hard by a slew of Seattle’s hitters who hold a combined overall batting average of .350 against him. Wade Leblanc through his first pitch in the majors since 2014 and looked good with six shutout innings, but I think he may revert back to his historical numbers in his outing.

Five of the seven games this season have seen UNDER bettors get the money, but today there are plenty of numbers that support bucking that trend. Minnesota’s starter Ricky Nolasco had an outing at U.S. Cellular Field earlier this season and was tagged for seven runs (five earned) over five innings making that his third poor outing in four career starts at that venue. White Sox starter James Shield improved in his latest after four consecutive disastrous starts and faces a roster that he has historically pitched poorly against with Chicago’s line up hitting a career .328 against. 

You would have a dent in your bankroll if you’ve been wagering against the Rangers with Cole Hamels on the mound this season. The Rangers have won eleven of his fifteen starts this season and Hamels comes into this game sizzling hot allowing 12 hits and two earned runs in his last two starts covering 20 2/3 innings. The Yankees counter with CC Sabathia who is coming off a poor start, but overall he’s been pitching well this season with a 66.7 QS percentage. Neither pitcher has good back numbers against tonight’s opponent, but Texas has the better stats against lefties and are the play here. The Rangers are on a 13-3 roll with the opposition needing to score eight or more runs to get the win in their three losses over that stretch. 

The Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez pitched reasonably well in his two career starts against the Rays both coming last season. However, this season he has had his struggles coming into this game and while it is a small sample size of 18 plate appearances against the current TB line up they have hit .333 lifetime against him. The Rays offense showed signs of improvement over their last two games getting to the Orioles’ pitching for 11 runs. They give the ball to promising rookie who is coming off of his best start of his MLB career going 6 2/3 innings allowing two earned runs. I’ll take a shot on the home team putting an end to their losing streak playing a team who has been have troubles of their own dropping five of their last seven games.