Expert Baseball Picks

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Saturday May 05, 2018

At first glance, I was looking towards playing the UNDER for this game. Both starters have pitched well this season allowing a combined three or fewer runs in 12 of their 13 starts. We get an umpire behind home plate that has favored the UNDER this season with three of his four games behind home plate resulting in an UNDER. After going more in-depth, I have a different opinion. The Giants starters have destroyed Brandon McCarthy hitting as a group .314 versus the right-hander in 121 at-bats. The sample size on Ty Blach is a very small facing three hitters totaling nine at-bats picking up four hits for a .444 batting average. The two offenses have been lighting up opponents with San Francisco scoring four or more runs in seven of their last eight and Atlanta in10 of their previous 12. The number is a little high, but I'm bitting.

Free Pick: 
Take the OVER 9.5
Friday May 04, 2018

Both starters have been impressive this season wherever they’ve pitched, and I just don’t see a lot of runs being scored tonight. The Pirates starter Nick Kingham will be making his first MLB road start and could find the going a bit more difficult tonight, but even if they get to him, the Brewers starter Junior Guerra hasn’t allowed a run at home this season and is capable of extending that streak tonight.

Free Pick: 
Take the UNDER 8.5
Friday May 04, 2018

The Toronto offense has been hitting the ball well racking up seven or more runs in four of their last six games, and they've scored four or more in eight of their previous nine. Tampa Bay's offense fell off in the tail end of a long road trip scoring three or fewer runs in their last four games. They have been hitting lefties well, but Jays starter Happ may be pitching the best in his career. I think that the Jays could extend the margin in this spot against what should be a string of relievers.

Free Pick: 
Take the Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 +105
Thursday May 03, 2018

The Dodgers got the win last night on the backs of the bullpen who pitched 7 2/3 innings. The offense continued to struggle, scoring three or fewer runs for the fourth time in the last five games. LA doesn't hit left-handed pitching well averaging just 3.61 runs per game (based on nine innings), and today they’re up against one of the top pitchers in the Majors lefty Patrick Corbin. It's a considerable number for me to lay, but I think that it's justifiable based on Corbin's form and the lack of production by the Dodgers.

Free Pick: 
Take the Arizona Diamondbacks -135
Wednesday May 02, 2018

Sure Marlins starter Jose Urena is 0-4, and the team has lost all six of his starts this season, but he's pitched OK at home with two quality starts this season out of four. He'll face a team that had scored one run in three of their last four games with the only exception being against Dan Straily who was making his seasonal debut when they scored four. Philadelphia starter Aaron Nolan was thrashed in three of his four starts last season against Miami allowing 18 earned runs over 21 1/3 innings. He does have an impressive pitcher vs. batter numbers holding tonight's projected starters to a .222 batting average, but a few hitters skew that; Brain Anderson, Miguel Rojas and Martin Prada have hit him well. The value tonight is on the home team.

Free Pick: 
Take the Miami Marlins +150
Tuesday May 01, 2018

Oakland’s starter Andrew Triggs historical numbers against the Seattle are not impressive with the expected line up holding a lifetime .395 batting average against him over 43 at bats. He does have on record two starts in Seattle with one earlier this season and one last year; both were decent allowing a combined three runs over 11 innings pitched. Seattle starter Felix Hernandez has always stepped up his game at home and this season is no exception with two earned runs allowed over 11 1/3 innings. He has excellent numbers against the A's with three consecutive quality starts dating back to last season. Both teams haven't had any difficulty scoring runs this season and Seattle comes into this game on fire after scoring 32 runs in their previous four games. That said, the Mariners offense has been dreadful at times at Safeco Field and is in the midst of scoring drought tallying seven runs in their last five home games.

Free Pick: 
Take the UNDER 8.5
Sunday Apr 29, 2018

This is a game that I could make an argument for either team to get the money, but I do believe that the Giants hold a small edge. San Francisco starter Ty Blach has started against the Dodgers six times in his career including four at home where he has recorded three quality starts not allowing more than two runs in any of the four. The Dodgers weakness is against left-handed pitching scoring 1.91 fewer runs per nine innings when compared to their numbers against righties. LAD starter Kenta Maeda pitched well at home earlier this season against the Giants throwing five scoreless innings, but he was rocked in his only career starts in San Francisco. I'll take the value here.

Free Pick: 
Take the San Francisco Giants +135 (RC)
Saturday Apr 28, 2018

The Yanks starter Masahiro Tanaka has been either excellent or dreadful this season in his four games, He does have an excellent back record against both Los Angeles and the projected line-up, so I'm going to call for one of those of those good ones tonight. Angels starter Garrett Richards has atrocious numbers against the Yankees in his career, but his pitcher vs. batter history against the current line-up is OK but limited facing only Gregorius (1 of 1), Gardiner (2 of 7) and Hicks (0 for 4). Richards could continue his dominant pitching in this match, but the Yankees haven't been held to fewer than four runs in nine straight games, and I feel confident rising that streak in this one.

Free Pick: 
Take the NY Yankees -110 (RC)
Saturday Apr 28, 2018

We had the same starting pitching match-up earlier this season when Detroit registered a 4-2 home win over Baltimore. I think it goes the other way this time around. Cashner has pitched well enough to win in four of his starts this season but carries a 1-3 mark into this game. The offense has been the problem with the team scoring a meager six runs in his last three outings. The team has picked up the scoring in the previous few games averaging five runs per game, and with the ice-cold bats of the Tigers in town, I like Cashner’s chances of being at least part of the equation in a win tonight. I also think that we could see a 4-2 type scoring again making the total a play I'll be on.

Free Pick: 
Take the Baltimore Orioles -135 and UNDER 9 (RC)
Friday Apr 27, 2018

The Rangers starter Mike Minor has solid back numbers against Toronto, but note that two of his three starts came in 2013 and 2011. His pitcher versus batter stats are decent, but Pillar, Pearce, Solarte, and Granderson have all had success against him. The Texas lefty has one start on the road this season, and he wasn't sharp getting tagged for five runs over five innings. The Jays send out Marcus Stroman for his fifth outing of the campaign, and he'll be looking for his first quality start of the season after four subpar performances. Stroman has had control issues this season, and Texas took advantage of it their earlier meeting roughing him up for five runs on six hits and five walks over 4 2/3 innings. Texas has a lengthy injury list which has hampered their scoring somewhat, so I'm going to pass on a Rangers plus the money bet, but I'm willing to take a shot at the total.

Free Pick: 
Take the OVER 8.5 (RC)
Thursday Apr 26, 2018

Lucas Giolito has pitched OK on the road with a 4.38 earned run average over two starts both of which he recorded a QS. He’ll face a Royals team that has scored the least runs in the Majors this season. Kansas City starter has three quality starts from four outings and also faces a struggling offense with Chicago ranked 26th in overall runs scored. This game has UNDER written all over it.

Free Pick: 
Take the UNDER 9 (RC)
Wednesday Apr 25, 2018

Both starters have been pitching well this season and have good back numbers against the opposing team. The Indians Trevor Bauer does have superior historical pitcher versus batter stats in a limited sample size and the Cubs Jon Lester doesn’t have the best numbers in this metric, but some of the data is based on seasons long past. The Cubs bats have been on fire, but they haven’t been facing top wrung starters and can be contained tonight.

Free Pick: 
Take the UNDER 7.5 (RC)
Tuesday Apr 24, 2018

Boston starter Porcello has been brilliant on the road this season with 0.79 earned run average in two starts. He has excellent back numbers versus the Jays lineup and should be up to the task tonight. The Jays send J.A. Happ to the mound, and while he hasn't been that impressive in his four starts this season, he has pitched well against the Red Sox. Both squads haven't hit the ball well in their last two making the UNDER a logical play here. 

Free Pick: 
Take the UNDER 8.5 (RC)
Monday Apr 23, 2018

I’m willing to take a shot on the run line here. Texas has been atrocious at home going 3-10 and while their starter Matt Moore looked good in his latest that was against the pop gun offense of the Rays. The Athletics have been on a roll winning six of seven and looked impressive taking two of three versus the Bosox. They hit lefties well averaging 5.49 runs per nine innings and have the bullpen that can hold.

Free Pick: 
Take the Oakland A’s -1.5 runs + 125
Monday Apr 23, 2018

The Braves Mike Foltynewicz will make his fifth start, and while he hasn't reached the required innings to record quality starts, he has allowed two or fewer runs in each outing this season a streak that has now hit eight games (four consecutive LY). Reds starter Sal Romano has pitched well enough to give his team a shot at the win in all four of his starts this campaign, and he does have a quality start in his resume against the Braves. Both teams’ projected lineups have sub .200 batting averages against today's starters and to and keep in mind that Cincinnati has scored three or fewer runs in eight of their last nine games.

Free Pick: 
Take the UNDER 9 (RC)
Sunday Apr 22, 2018

Today's starting pitchers are off to solid starts this season, and if they keep up this pace, they're inline for career seasons. That's not likely to be the case, and I feel that one of them will come back down to earth today. Wheeler historically has had trouble with control, and he's up against the Braves today who are tied for the lead in the NL in on-base percentage. Atlanta starter Mike Foltynewicz has been ultra-consistent allowing three or fewer runs in eight consecutive starts. He doesn’t have good back numbers against the Mets in two starts both in New York, but the long ball has been the problem, and he appears to have that under control allowing just three in his last ten starts. The wind blowing in will also help the cause.

Free Pick: 
Take the Atlanta Braves -113
Saturday Apr 21, 2018

I prefer taking the money and backing the home side here. The Dodgers starter Hyun-Jin Ryu has been fabulous in his last two after a rough beginning to the season. In his previous two outings both quality starts, he allowed two runs over 12 innings striking out 17 while walking just one. Los Angeles is a money-burning 4-6 at home this season, but overall, they've been hitting the ball well over their last five and can be forgiven for not lighting it up against Max Scherzer (which team does?) last night.

Free Pick: 
Take the Los Angeles Dodgers +106 (RC)
Friday Apr 20, 2018

I’m willing to trust the Twins bats over the Rays today based on a few statistics. The Twins are scoring at a rate of 4.09 runs per nine innings versus RHP this campaign compared to the Rays who have recorded 3.41. Minnesota comes into this match scoring only three runs in their last two but when you factor in the starters they faced in Carlos Carrasco and Corey Kluber it's not a reach to think that they can revert to the form that saw them score four or greater runs in seven of their last eight games. Tampa Bay starter Chris Archer hasn't been sharp for maybe half a season dating back to last year and while Lance Lynne has had his own troubles as of late with control the Rays bats are unlikely to "take him to task". The value is with the visitor tonight.

Free Pick: 
Take the Minnesota Twins +112
Thursday Apr 19, 2018

The historical pitcher vs. batter metrics of both starters would suggest a low scoring game tonight, but that's not the side of the total line I think this one will land. Bosox starter Eduardo Rodriguez pitched well is his latest but he wasn't sharp in his opener, and he was up and down last season in 24 starts. Angels starter Nick Tropeano impressed in his seasonal debut, but he missed all of last season, and he may not be as sharp in this outing. We have the two best hitting clubs in the majors and have an OVER favoring umpire behind Homeplate.

Free Pick: 
Take the OVER 8.5 (RC)
Wednesday Apr 18, 2018

We have two starting pitchers who have opened the season with strong numbers over three starts. Carrasco has been fabulous after a rough start in Seattle allowing three runs in 15 innings. Jose Berrios hasn't been comparable with two brilliant games sandwiching a rough game also against the Mariners. Both starters have sub-00 WHIPs, and with the limited early season scoring prowess by either team a wager on the total seems the way to go.

Free Pick: 
Take the UNDER 7.5 (RC)

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