Expert Baseball Picks
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We give Houston the edges in the pitching match-up and in the bullpen comparison. Also, we like the Astros to right the ship following back-to-back series losses. Also, Houston is eight games over .500 against left-handed starters while Texas is seven games under .500 against right-handed starters. So we’re betting the Astros Monday night and we’ll chase the better price with a play against the run line.
We're calling our three main baseball handicapping factors a wash, which means we believe the initial line on this game was about right. But the Mets are the better team in this match-up, a division leader headed toward the playoffs, while the Angels just fired their manager. Plus New York is catching an underdog price. We like the betting value with the Mets here.
We give Los Angeles the check-mark in the pitching match-up, Kershaw and his bullpen against basically San Francisco’s relief corps. We also like the bounce-back factor with the Dodgers, after losing Friday night’s game. Finally, in knowing the visitors will bat nine times we’ll play LA against the run line.
We’re calling this pitching match-up a wash and while Minnesota might own a slight edge with the sticks Tampa Bay owns a solid edge in the bullpen comparison. Also, the Rays are playing the better ball as of late and they’re getting an underdog price. We’re taking Tampa for our free baseball pick for Friday night.
Atlanta gets all three of our major baseball handicapping check-marks in this match-up so we like the Braves here. But we do not like that price. So we'll take a chance and chase the better price here with Atlanta against the run line.
New York gets our handicapping check-marks in the pitching match-up, with the sticks, and in the bullpen comparison, even without Chapman. So we like the Yankees here. We also like chasing better prices. So in knowing the visitors will bat nine times, we'll play the Yanks against the run line.
We give Kopech the edge in the pitching match-up but Los Angeles gets the check-marks in the splits with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison. Also, when a good team like the Dodgers experiences a 2-5 stretch we expect a reversal and bet accordingly. So we like LA Tuesday night, and in knowing the visitors will bat nine times we’ll chase the better price on the run line.
Heading into Monday's National League matchup between New York and San Diego, I recommend taking the Mets to pick up the win. So far, the Padres have yet to win in any of Blake Snell's 3 outings. In addition, he will be facing a New York offense ranked 2nd in wOBA vs right-handed pitching. On the other side, the Padres have the 26th rated wOBA vs right-handers.
We give Boston the edges in the pitching match-up, the splits with the sticks, and in the bullpen comparison. Also, the Red Sox used a recent run to get back to .500 on the season, while Los Angeles can't get out of its way as of late. So we're betting Boston at the underdog price Monday night.
We give Atlanta the check-marks in all three of our major handicapping factors, so not only do we like the Braves, we'll give the run and a half on the run line at a price of around -120. Also, when we combine one of the best line-ups in Baseball in the pitching split and the worst bullpen, we think this game should play over on the total.
We give Anderson the edge in the pitching match-up, and Los Angeles owns edges in both the splits with the sticks and the bullpen comparison. Plus, the Dodgers are nine games above .500 against RH starters this year, while New York is a 500 team against lefty starters. So we like LA here, the home team, at a reasonable price.
We don’t know who’s going to win this game and we don’t care because our pick isn’t coming on a side, but on the total. Houser’s been good against San Diego while Manaea’s been good all season for the Padres. Meanwhile, both these teams have pretty good bullpens and both are struggling with the sticks. So we like the under on this game for our free baseball pick for Thursday.
Cortes gets our check-mark in the pitching match-up, and New York owns an edge in the bullpen comparison, but we give Los Angeles an edge with the sticks. The Yankees are down a couple of line-up regulars, and they've been held to two runs or less six times over their last ten games! When we tally those factors up, they don't seem to merit so high a price. Betting baseball is about finding value on the dime line, and we like the value here with the Angels at the underdog price.
Montas owns the edge in the pitching match-up, but we give Houston the check-marks in the splits with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison. Plus, the Astros are 6-3 over their last nine games while Oakland is 1-4 over its last five games, and trends like those mean a lot to us when handicapping baseball games. So we're betting Houston here.
We give Rasmussen the edge in the pitching match-up, and Tampa Bay owns the edge in the bullpen comparison. And while the Rays aren't exactly hammering the ball as of late, our guess is those bats will come alive sometime soon. So we're betting Tampa Monday night.
We give Wheeler the edge in the pitching match-up, but New York owns edges in the splits with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison. Plus, the Mets are headed in a good direction as of late. Philadelphia, not so much. Also, these two teams own starkly disparate records against right-handed starters. So we're betting New York Sunday night, the home team, at a very reasonable price.
We give Lorenzen the edge in the pitching match-up, based in part on Kikuchi's struggles against the Angels last year while calling the splits with the sticks and the bullpen comparisons about equal. So the line on this game looks about right. However, we like betting teams on rolls against teams who might be struggling a bit, and Toronto is heading in a good direction lately while Los Angeles, not so much. Plus, the Jays are catching an underdog price. We're betting Toronto Saturday night.
We give Woodruff the edge in the pitching match-up and Milwaukee perhaps a slight edge in the bullpen comparison while calling the splits with the sticks about even. But to us, that doesn't add up to -145. Also, these two teams are very close overall and will probably come darn close to splitting their season series. Betting baseball is often about find value on the daily dime line, and we like the value here with St. Louis at the home dog price.
We give Giolito a slight edge in the pitching match-up but Boston is hot with the sticks and owns the better bullpen. Plus, the Red Sox are headed in a good direction as of late while Chicago just seems to be treading water. We're betting Boston at that very tempting underdog price Wednesday night.