Expert Baseball Picks

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Sunday Jul 01, 2018

Cleveland’s starter Mike Clevinger has been pitched well for most of the season recording an impressive quality start percentage of 62.5% both overall and on the road. He has the one-lifetime start against Oakland, and it was decent pitching 6 2/3 allowing three runs on five hits, but he did give up two home runs. The Athletics haven't been lighting up the scoreboard, but they have scored 5.16 runs per game over their six-game winning streak and with the wind blowing out they may cause Clevinger some grief. The A’s starter Frankie Montas has been having a hard time staying out of trouble over his last three with a bloated WHIP of 2.27 to go with a 7.20 earned run average. Montas might be precisely what the doctor ordered to get their offense back on track.

Free Pick: 
Take the OVER 8.5 (RC)
Tuesday Jun 26, 2018

After an excellent start to the season, the Angels have struggled especially on the road where they're 1-7 over their last eight and 4-11 in their previous 15. It's not looking good for them to improve on those numbers tonight.

The pitching match-up goes to Boston and Price hands down. The Red Sox starter faced the Angels earlier in the season when Los Angeles was hot and battled throughout with three hits and four walks but only got carded for one while striking out six. He hasn’t been lasting long into games not always getting the required six IP to record a quality start, but he has held the opposition to three or few runs in eight straight. The Angels starter has been hittable in his two starts this season allowing nine hits over 8 1/3 innings including 3 HRs and brings a 2-12 career mark as a starter into this game. The Boston offense hasn’t been consistent the last week or so, scoring three or fewer in four of their previous nine, but 43 runs in the other five.

Free Pick: 
Take Boston -1.5 +105
Thursday Jun 21, 2018

The Angels took two of three from the Jays in Toronto back in May, and one of the losses came with tonight's starting pitchers on the mound. Both starters received a no-decision in the Angels win, but Toronto's Aaron Sanchez was the stronger of the two. Coming into this game both have pitched well with matching three game QS streaks, but Sanchez has the better numbers against the lineup having a career .255 versus Skaggs .318. The Jays arrive as the hotter team and on paper have an edge in starting pitching tonight. If the bullpen doesn't blow it this time around, we should have a nice dog winner.

Free Pick: 
Take the Toronto Blue Jays +135 (RC)
Tuesday Jun 19, 2018

Short and sweet analysis today. The Yankees come back home after flying out to Washington to play basically a game and a half, and it will be no surprise if they are not in top form tonight. They'll be facing a quality pitcher in Marco Gonzales who is on a nice roll holding the opposition to three or fewer runs in six straight while recording five quality starts. He’s been sound on the road with a 5-2 record and 3.29 ERA and has a QS percentage of 71.4% away from home. The Yanks starter Domingo German has looked better in his last two getting the QS in both but keep in mind, he was facing two of the least productive offensive clubs in the two starts. He has struggled at home this campaign going 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA. I’m going to back the rested Mariners who have proven that they can get it done on the road.

Free Pick: 
Take the Seattle Mariners + 164 (RC)
Sunday Jun 17, 2018

Angels starter Andrew Heaney has been roughed up in two of his last three both on the road and brings a dismal 5.68 road ERA this season into the game. He did pitch well in his previous two road starts holding the Yankees and the Rockies to a combined three runs on nine hits over 12 1/3 innings, and he does have a 40% QS ratio away from home. Another metric that is in Heaney's favor is his back number versus Oakland's projected line-up holding seven batters to a combined .120 BA. The A's starter Daniel Mengden was pitching exceptionally well in May putting five quality starts together, but the wheels have fallen off since getting lit up for 12v runs in 8 2/3 innings tossed. His career numbers are poor versus today's forecasted line-up with the Angels hitters averaging .296 in 27 at bats. I'm going to bank on Heaney getting back to form in this one and having his way with the strike-out prone Athletics.

Free Pick: 
Take the Los Angeles Angels -112
Sunday Jun 17, 2018

Neither squad is playing well right now with the Rockies losers of seven of nine and the Rangers seven of their last eight.

A loss is a loss, but the overall strength on paper and the current form of Texas’ recent opponents is a factor. The Rangers dropped two to the Dodgers (11-2 last 13) and four to the Astros (10-0 run) before losing the opener of this series when they sent out Yohander Mendez to make his first start of his career. Today the Rockies send out Jon Gray who hasn’t had a quality start since early May and has given up four or more runs in five of his last six outings and overall is 1-3 with a 6.97 ERA in day starts. The Texas starter Yovani Gallardo comes up from the minors where he looked OK to make his first MLB start since last season. The Rockies line up has decent historical numbers against him with a .275 career batting average but the numbers are skewed by Carlos Gonzalez .421 in 19 at bats and Ian Desmond .278 in 18 ABs accounting for over a third of the plate appearances. I’ll take my chances on Gallardo and back the home side at plus money.

Free Pick: 
Take the Texas Rangers +105
Thursday Jun 14, 2018

Snell has decent enough career back numbers against New York hitters holding the expected line-up to a .219 batting average, but his last two starts against them were atrocious. He allowed five runs over 3 1/3 innings back in early April and four runs in one inning back in late September last season. The problem has been walks and the long ball. The Yankees as stated don’t hit him well for average, but they have picked up 14 walks over 79 plate appearances and have taken him out of the park four times in 64 at bats. The Yankees haven’t been killing it lately not surpassing four runs in six straight, but they faced above average starters in most of the games. New York’s starter Domingo German looked like an ace in his first career start pitching six scoreless frames against Cleveland and had a nice Strike Out/ Walk ration of 9-2. He looked OK against the Mets in his latest, but their hitters are ice-cold making the six innings three-run performance a low bar for a QS. The Rays batters don't give many starters sleepless nights, but they have been producing some runs in recent matches scoring four or more in four of their last five. My money tonight is on the total.

Free Pick: 
Take the Over 8.5 -105 RC
Wednesday Jun 13, 2018

Cleveland starter Trevor Bauer has good back numbers against Chisox and against the current line-up he has solid credentials holding them to a career .209. That said he hadn't faced them this season and while his last out was great his previous two were not getting lit up for 11 runs over 13 innings (11 earned runs). White Sox starter Dylan Covey starter has come into his own this season and is heads into this contest off his best start of the season shutting out Boston over six innings. Walks are still a bit of an issue this season, but his strikeouts are way up especially in his last four games with 25. He has faced the Indians this season, and it was a mediocre outing allowing two earned runs over 4 1/3. There is no doubting the Indians superiority over the White Sox this season. They are leading the AL Central with a five-game lead and are 12 games ahead of the fourth-place White Sox. The overall record though doesn’t reflect their current form. The White Sox have won 7 of their last 12 games overall and 5 of their last eight at home. Cleveland is just 5-5 in their last ten games overall and 3-6 in their previous nine on the road. The starting pitching match-up is even, and the Chisox have the superior bullpen making it worth a shot on playing the home side at plus money.

Free Pick: 
Take the Chicago White Sox +170
Tuesday Jun 12, 2018

The NY Mets offense is struggling and when I say "struggling" I mean ice-cold. The team has scored a total of 13 runs over they're last nine games with a hit sequence 5, 6,4,5,3,3,7,6, and 4 for 43 total hits. Of the projected line-up Asdrubal Cabrera .600, Jose Bautista .500 Michael Conforto .333 have had some success against tonight’s starter Mike Foltynewicz, but the sample size is minimal with a combined 12 at-bats. All three come into the game nowhere near their top form with A.Cabrera hitting 0.158, J.Bautista .000, and M. Conforto O.50 over the last seven days. Foltynewicz has two-lifetime starts against the Mets, and they weren't good allowing nine earned runs over just eight innings pitched, but those came in 2015 and 2016 in New York at Citi Field. He comes into this game at the top of his game allowing four earned runs over his last six games and brings a 2.35 home ERA.

Zack Wheeler gets the ball for the Mets, and he's coming off of his best game of the season pitching seven scoreless innings in a home start against the Orioles. Wheeler has been decent on the road this season with a 2-0 record and 3.86 ERA, and he has fared well against the Braves in the past and is currently on a four-game QS run, but those all came in 2014. Atlanta's current lineup is entirely different now and their expected line-up tonight has only a combined 17 at-bats against him. Tyler Flowers is one for one, but the one hit left the park, and Freddie Freeman is 7 of 14 with three extra-base hits, and Kurt Suzuki is the only other batter that has faced Wheeler, and he's one for two.

I rarely take the home side on the run line, but I think that the Braves can put up a handful of runs on a Mets team that may be hard-pressed to score.

Free Pick: 
Take Atlanta -1.5 +140
Monday Jun 11, 2018
The total is the way to go here. The Cubs starter Jose Quintana struggled in April with a 5.74 ERA, and incidentally, his only two good outings in April came against the Brewers pitching 13 scoreless innings and getting the “W” in both starts. Quintana rebounded in May with a 3.09 ERA in six starts, and he comes into this match on top of his game allowing six earned runs in his last four starts and brings with him a 2.62 road ERA.
Junior Guerra comes into this game in excellent form recording a quality start in his last three and has held his opponent to three or fewer runs in five straight starts. He has a solid history against the Cubs with three QS in four starts and has kept the team to three or fewer runs in each start. Guerra’s back numbers are also strong against tonight’s projected Cubs lineup holding them to a brilliant .159 batting average over 79 plate appearances. These two pitchers were the starters on April 28th that Chicago came away as the victor in a 3-0 score. I expect another low scoring affair that should easily fall below the posted total line.
 
Free Pick: 
Take the UNDER 8.5
Sunday Jun 10, 2018

Los Angeles starter Nick Tropeano has had his share of poor performances this season, but the majority of those came at home. On the road, this campaign he’s an impressive 3-1 with a sharp WHIP of 1.07 and 2.55 earned run average. He’s had his way with Minnesota’s projected line-up holding the Angles’ batters to a career .182 batting average over 38 plate appearances. The Twins counter today with Fernando Romero who has pitched well in both of his starts at Target Field recording quality starts in both going 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA. He has a start under his belt against the Angels back on May 13th, and he looked OK with one run allowed on four hits over five innings. Neither squad is giving the scorekeeper a workout, and we get an "under- favoring" umpire behind Homeplate and the forecast calls for a strong wind blowing in from center.

Free Pick: 
Take the UNDER 9
Friday Jun 08, 2018

Neither one of these clubs has been scoring a lot of runs lately and in Baltimore’s case all season. Orioles starter Andrew Cashner got blown up for five runs over five innings, but for the most part this season he has gone out and pitched five-plus innings and allowed three or fewer runs. The Jays starter J.A. Happ got tagged with four runs in five innings against the Tigers but pitched well in his three prior games recording a quality start in all three outings. Tonight’s starters have credible back numbers against their opponent with Cashner allowing three or fewer runs in all three of his career starts against Toronto and likewise for Happ who hasn’t allowed more than three runs in his last six starts versus Baltimore. We’ll need some help from the bullpens, but considering the current form of the hitters that may not be much to ask.

Free Pick: 
Take the UNDER 9
Thursday Jun 07, 2018

We have two pitchers on the mound tonight that don't allow a lot of baserunners. Gerrit Cole's WHIP numbers are excellent with sub 1.00 in all metrics, and Cole Hamels has a strong metric in night starts with a 1.08 WHIP. Both starters do give up the long ball with Cole getting tagged with six home runs allowed in his last four games and Hamels 15 in his 12 starts this season. That said Cole and Hamels have quality back numbers against their opponent tonight. Gerrit Cole has two quality starts against the Rangers this season allowing a combined three runs over 14 1/3 innings of work and Cole Hamels has held the Astros to five runs in 17 2/3 innings over three starts this season.

Free Pick: 
Take the UNDER 9
Wednesday Jun 06, 2018

Chicago starter Hector Santiago hasn’t looked all that out of place in his six starts this season giving his team a chance to win in most outings. That said, he has had control issues with a ridiculous 20 walks over 27 1/3 innings pitched in his starts this season. Minnesota starter Jake Odorizzi was chased after just 3 2/3 innings allowing seven earned runs on seven hits in his last outing against Cleveland. However, he has been consistent most of the season, and prior to that last start, he had allowed five ER over four starts. The Twins were hot before dropping the back end of the double-header yesterday with rookie Zack Littell making his first career start. They had won four straight and had gone 7-3 at home in their last ten. In the season series only one game has been decided by fewer than two runs, and with the edge in most metrics going to the Twins they're worth a shot with the extra handicap.

Free Pick: 
Take the Minnesota Twins -1.5 +120
Tuesday Jun 05, 2018

CC Sabathia hasn’t been in the best of form, but he’s pitched well in his two starts this season versus Toronto and can have another one tonight. He has strong historical numbers against the Jays batters overall holding the projected starters to a .222 ERA. Toronto starter Marco Estrada has had a lot of success against the Yankees in his career and catches a team that has played three games in the last two days with double travel. If the roof stays open, it's going to be a chilly night with a strong wind blowing in from center field. The Jays offense has struggled all season with four runs being considered a productive day. Three of four in Toronto earlier this season fell UNDER the total and only two of the matches this season have gone OVER tonight's posted total.

Free Pick: 
Take the UNDER 10
Monday Jun 04, 2018

Both starters have been pitching well in recent games with the Royals Duffy recording back to back quality starts allowing just two runs over 13 2/3 innings pitched. He has good numbers at home against the Angels getting the QS in three straight games in Kansas City but did get blown up in LA for five runs over six innings, but that was back in 2014. Versus the current Angels lineup, he has the batters to a .247 earned run average over 111 plate appearances. Opposing him on the mound for LA is Nick Tropeana who have the best metrics at home this season 0-2 with a 5.31 ERA, but overall his recent outings have been solid holding the opposition to three or fewer runs in four of his last five.  While it's a small sample size, his career numbers against the KC line-up are excellent allowing a .212 BA, .257 OBA and .242 SLG over 35 PAs. Neither team’s offense is giving the score-keeper a workout especially the Angels who have scored three or fewer runs in 16 of their last 22 games! 

Free Pick: 
Take the UNDER 8.5
Sunday Jun 03, 2018

Rick Porcello hasn’t been at his best since April and his last start at Minute Maid Park was disastrous getting lit up for seven runs in six innings. Charlie Morton has been brilliant at home this season with a 5-0 record and 1.85 ERA, but he'll be facing Boston for the first time on this field. His last out against them was not impressive allowing nine baserunners in 4 1/3 at Fenway. Both teams are riding an OVER trend with Boston on a 7-1 O/U streak and Houston on a 7-2-1 roll.

Free Pick: 
Take the OVER 8
Sunday Jun 03, 2018

San Diego's overall home record is not impressive, but they've started to play better at home winning seven of their last ten at Petco Park. They catch a pitcher in Luis Castillo who has been taking his lumps on the road with a bloated 6.49 ERA and a 28.6 QS percentage. On the mound for the Padres is Tyson Ross who rarely tosses a bad one and has never lost against the Reds although it must be noted that he hasn't faced them since 2015. Ross has performed well at home with a 60% QS metric, and overall the team is 8-3 in his 11 starts. I'll lay the small number and back the home squad here.

Free Pick: 
Take the San Diego Padres -110
Saturday Jun 02, 2018

The Rangers have lost six straight against the Angles, but I think that they may break that trend tonight. Texas starter Cole Hamels has good career numbers against the LA Angels holding the line-up to a .235 batting average over 277 at bats. He has two other strong metrics to go on; he's a positive 2-1 on the road this season with a 2.54 ERA, and overall in night games he's 3-1 with a sizzling 2.18 ERA and a 71.4% QS number. Los Angeles counters with Garret Richards who Also has strong historical stats against tonight's opponent holding the Rangers' batters to .230 but his form this season has been up and down and he's not going deep into games which I reflected in his season 27.3 quality start percentage. An additional thing in our favor is the negative record of the host against left-handed pitching going 5-8 in 2018. I'll take a shot on the dog in this spot getting a healthy return.

Free Pick: 
Take the Texas Rangers +150 (RC)
Saturday Jun 02, 2018

Today’s starting pitchers were the starters in a 2-1 Rockies win at Dodgers Field back on May 21st. They switch venues today to hitter-friendly Coors Field and get an OVER trending home plate umpire. That said, both starters have good back numbers against today’s projected starting line-up with Walker Buehler holding the Colorado batters to a .185 batting average in 27 at bats and the Dodgers line-up hitting only .233 in 43 ABs against German Marquez. Speaking of the Rockies starter he has been dreadful at home this, but his last one at Coors was good allowing one run through seven innings, and he appears to be in top form right now.

Free Pick: 
Take the UNDER 10.5

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