Expert Baseball Picks
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Most signs point toward LA here, and yeah Pittsburgh just dropped four in a row at home, but baseball can be a funny game. How often have we seen teams struggle through a home-stand, then hit the road and start winning games? And the Pirates recent funk drives up the price. We're taking what we see as good value here with Pittsburgh.
Cleveland is finally, basically, healthy, and Bauer is going pretty good at the moment. And the price offered on today's game seems inflated. We're going with value here and betting the Indians.
Philadelphia isn't much to look at as of late, but we give the Phillies the edge in the pitching match-up for Wednesday and in the bullpen comparison. And after losing the first two games of this series, they do not want to get swept. We're going with Philly for our free MLB pick for Wednesday.
Los Angeles opened as a short favorite for this game, and while early action flipped the chalk, we believe the initial line was right. Ultimately this game will probably come down to the bullpens, and the Dodgers get the check-mark in that department. We're going with LA for our free MLB pick for Tuesday.
St. Louis is not as familiar with Houser as Milwaukee is with Flaherty, which could work to the Brewers' advantage. Also, the betting line, when it eventually comes out, should post the Cardinals as favorites, perhaps significantly. But Milwaukee owns the edge in the season series. Even with the youngster hitting the hill we're betting the Brewers and their bats Monday.
Colorado is suddenly hot, while Philadelphia is treading water, at best. Also, Nola is struggling, and Coors Field isn't exactly friendly toward struggling pitchers. In fact, it almost seems like the oddsmakers have the wrong team favored here. We'll take the home-dog Rockies for our free MLB pick for Saturday.
Kluber will probably, eventually get his act together this season but the line and movement on this game is perhaps based more on name recognition than potential performance. And while Cleveland owns the edge in bullpen comparison, Atlanta owns the edge in the splits with the sticks. We're betting value here with the Braves.
We'll give Milwaukee the edge in the pitching match-up for Thursday, and the Brewers are tough at home. Plus, they're getting the underdog price. We like Milwaukee for our free MLB pick for Thursday.
Crash Davis once said “never fuck with a winning streak,” and Houston is riding a helluva streak. So we're going with Crash's advice in this spot. And knowing that the Astros will bat nine times we have no qualms about giving the run and a half against the MLB run line.
Peralta is a Jekyll-and-Hyde case; he can dominate for eight innings as he did two starts ago, or he can struggle to get out of the fourth inning, like last time out. We just don't know what we're going to get out of him any given outing. Also, we'll give St. Louis short edges at the moment with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison. Plus, the Cardinals are getting the underdog price.
Some signs point toward Los Angeles for this game, hence, apparently, the line and the movement. But the Dodgers are cold, with six straight losses, and we're never afraid of betting against the flow. We're going with the Brewers and the value here at the underdog price.
We give Houston the check marks in the pitching match-up and the bullpen comparison. Also, the Astros are hot, while we believe Seattle's been playing a bit over its head so far this season. So we're betting Houston Saturday. But we don't like that price, so we'll chase a better one and give the run and a half on the MLB run line.
We give Atlanta short edges in the pitching match-up and in the bullpen comparison, so we're going with the Braves, the home team at the short price, for our free MLB pick for Friday.
This game sets up as a play on St. Louis on the MLB streak betting theory, but we do not always abide by that. Maeda is perfectly capable of out-pitching Flaherty, and while LA struggled mightily with RISP the first two games of this series, we expect a little better luck Wednesday.
Washington roughed up Nola last week, but we expect a bounce-back effort Tuesday night. And that Nats bullpen is struggling. We're going with Philadelphia for our free MLB pick for Tuesday.
Chacin was the rock of the Milwaukee rotation last season, and he's continuing in that role this season with a pair of wins already. And we like this Brewers lineup. So we're betting Milwaukee Monday for our free MLB pick.
The Royals Brad Keller gets the start today, and he's been fantastic this year with a 2.08 earned run average and 0.92 WHIP. Admittingly two games is a small sample size, but dating back to last season he has allowed three or fewer runs in nine of his last ten and two or fewer runs in eight of the ten starts. Today he faces a Tigers club that he has success against last season and a club that has struggled to put up runs on starting pitching all season. The Royals have done an OK job at the plate this season, but Detroit’s starter Tyson Ross has owned them with a .136 career batting average in two starts, and the pen has been good with a 3.00 ERA this season.
Houston's been scuffling a bit out of the gate this season, but perhaps Friday's victory will provide a spark. Meanwhile, Brooks is coming off a fantastic effort his first time out, but we're still dubious of a guy who entered this season with a career ERA over six.
Milwaukee is hot, Chicago is not, and that's really all we need to know for this game. Also, while early betting action leaned toward the Cubs, we never have a problem going against the flow. We're betting the Brew Crew here.
The Dodgers have erupted for 55 runs in seven games and have surpassed four runs in five of those contests. Rockies starter Tyler Anderson didn't look good on the road in his opener, and he did get roughed up by the Dodgers last time he started at home against them back in September last season. Anderson has a history of starting the season slow, so I'm not expecting a significant rebound effort today.
The host Rockies bats were cold as ice scoring a combined two runs in their last four games and come into this match ranked 25th in batting average with a putrid .197 mark. They’ve certainly didn’t get to Maeda last season, 19 IP, 5 ERs over three starts but his worst outing of was in Colorado where he gave up three runs over 5 1/3 frames allowing nine base runners. Maeda continued to give up the long ball in his first test this campaign a problem that he had at the end of last season and Coors Field is not the place to try and remedy it.