Dodgers vs. Braves Game 5 Odds & Pick

Date: 
October 16, 9:08 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
LAD- 205/ATL+185
Total: 
9.5un -120

The Atlanta Braves find themselves one win away from their first World Series berth since 1999, up to three games to one in this NLCS, heading into Game 5 Friday night in Arlington. The Braves bounced back from that 15-3 thrashing they took in Game 3 to bomb Los Angeles 10-2 in Game 4. Can Atlanta put the Dodgers away? Can LA avoid another disappointing finish? And who do we like for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

As of this writing, MLB betting outlets were holding off on lining this Game 5, as there was some uncertainty as to who would pitch for the Braves.

Dodgers vs. Braves Set-Up

Atlanta is the designated home team for this Game 5.

The Braves lead this best-of-seven NLCS three games to one after romping to a 10-2 victory in Game 4 Thursday night. That game was tied at 1-1 through five and a half innings, until Atlanta posted a six-spot in the bottom of the sixth to take control.

On the night, the Braves banged out 14 hits, including two home runs by Marcell Ozuna. Meanwhile, rookie Bryse Wilson tossed six innings of one-run, one-hit ball to earn the W.

Atlanta won Thursday as a +185 underdog against Clay Kershaw, and the game played over a total of nine runs.

So the overs are now 3-1 in this NLCS, as the teams have combined to score 51 runs in four games.

With Thursday's win, the Braves are now 8-1 this postseason.

With Thursday's loss, Los Angeles is 6-3 this postseason.

Game 5 Starting Arms

Lefty Fried is 6/14 on quality starts this season, and 2/3 this postseason. Monday, in Game 1 of this series, Fried held the Dodgers to one run and four hits through six innings, with two walks and nine strikeouts, in a 5-1 Atlanta victory. And in three starts during this postseason, he's allowed five runs and 16 hits through 17 innings, with two walks and 18 whiffs.

The Braves are an amazing 13-1 with Fried this season and 3-0 this postseason.

Fried is listed as the starting pitcher for this Game 5 by some media outlets, but there's also a chance Atlanta will go with an "opener" and its bullpen.

May is 3/10 on quality starts this season, to go along with a handful of relief appearances. Most recently, in Game 1 of this NLCS Monday, he tossed 1 2/3 innings of scoreless relief. And in three appearances this postseason, he's thrown 4 2/3 innings of scoreless ball, allowing just one hit, with two walks and six strikeouts.

Los Angeles is 8-2 when May starts this season, 3-0 over his last three starts.

In his only previous career appearance against Atlanta, in August of last season, May allowed four runs on three hits through two innings of relief.

Game 5 Batting Splits

Los Angeles batted .250 against left-handed pitching this season, with a .336 team OBP and a .442 team slugging percentage.

The Braves batted .273/.354/.498 against right-handed pitching this season. Numbers like those helped this lineup rank as the best in the Majors in this split this year.

The Bullpens

The Atlanta bullpen posted a 3.50 ERA this season, along with a 1.28 WHIP and a 2.64 K/BB ratio. Braves relievers have also allowed 16 runs on 22 hits through 19 innings of work in this NLCS.

The Dodgers pen put up a 2.74 ERA, an ML-best 1.04 WHIP, and a 3.34 K/BB ratio this season. Numbers like those help this unit rank as the best bullpen in baseball this year. But Los Angeles relievers have also allowed 15 runs and 23 hits through 15 2/3 innings in this NLCS.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Los Angeles played 13-5 against left-handed starters this season.
  • Atlanta played 27-21 against right-handed starters this season.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 5-4 in Dodgers games this postseason.
  • Unders are 5-4 in Braves games this postseason.
  • Overs are 5-2 in games played at Globe Life Field this postseason.

Dodgers vs, Braves Game 5 Prediction

We give Atlanta the edge in the pitching match-up, and while LA might own the better bullpen, the Braves own the advantage in the splits with the sticks. Plus, it looks like Atlanta regained momentum with its victory Thursday night. We're betting the Braves to close out this NLCS Friday night.

Free Pick: 
Take the Braves
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