Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Pick 6/18/19

June 18, 9:40 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Diamondbacks -145/Rockies +135

Both the Rockies and Diamondbacks are three games over the .500 mark heading into the opener of a three-game NL West rivalry series Tuesday night in Phoenix. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Tuesday's MLB betting odds opened Arizona at around -135 over Colorado, with an over/under of 10 runs. Early betting action then bumped that spread to -145.

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Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Set-Up

Colorado just split four games at home with San Diego over the weekend, losing Sunday's series finale 14-13 by blowing a three-run lead in the ninth inning. The Rockies then had Monday off.

Just before that Colorado took two of three games at home from the Cubs. So the Rockies are 4-3 over their last seven games.

Arizona, meanwhile, just split four games at Washington over the weekend, losing Sunday's series finale 15-5. The D'Backs then also had Monday off.

Just before that Arizona took two of three games at Philadelphia, and just before that they took two of three in Toronto. So the Diamondbacks are 8-3 over their last 11 games.

At 37-34 Colorado is tied with 38-35 Arizona for second place in the NL West, 10 games behind the division-leading Dodgers. But the Rockies and Diamondbacks are also tied with St. Louis for third place in the NL wild-card race, two games back of the Phillies and Cubs.

Colorado leads the season series with Arizona five games to two.

Tuesday's Starting Arms

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played back on May 28 of this season, a 6-2 Colorado victory at Coors Field.

Kelly, by our strict standards, is 6/14 on quality starts this season, working on a run of three in a row. Last Wednesday he held the Phillies scoreless on three hits through seven innings of a 2-0 Diamondbacks victory. And over his last three starts, he's allowed just two runs and 12 hits through 22 1/3 innings.

Arizona is 7-7 with Kelly this season, 3-0 over his last three starts.

In his only career start against the Rockies, three weeks ago in Denver, Kelly allowed four runs and seven hits through 6 2/3 innings of that 6-2 Diamondbacks defeat.

Senzatela is 5/12 on quality starts this year, and three for his last four. Last Wednesday he got knocked around for eight runs – six earned – through four innings of a 10-1 loss to the Cubs. But over his three starts previous to that he allowed just four runs and 17 hits through 18 innings.

Colorado is 7-5 with Senzatela this season, 3-1 over his last four starts.

Over his last four starts against Arizona, one this year and three last year, Senzatela allowed 11 runs and 24 hits through 24 1/3 innings. The Rockies split those four games.

Tuesday's Batting Splits

Colorado is batting .265/.327/.457 against right-handed pitching this season.

Arizona is batting .241/.310/.429 against RH pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Rockies bullpen owns a 4.43 ERA this season and a 1.38 WHIP.

The Diamondbacks pen owns a 4.39 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 37-31 in Rockies games this season.
  • Overs are 36-34 in Diamondbacks games this season.
  • Unders are 16-11 in games played at Chase Field this season.
  • Unders are 8-5 with Kelly this season.
  • Overs are 4-3 in Rockies-D'Backs games this season, although all those games were played in Denver.

Rockies at Diamondbacks Prediction 06/18/2019

Kelly gets the check-mark in the pitching match-up, but Colorado owns an edge with the bats. With other factors evening out we see betting value here with the Rockies at the underdog price.

Free Pick: 
Take the Rockies +135

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