Cleveland Indians vs. Houston Astros ALDS Game 1 Pick - Odds and Betting Predictions

October 5, 2:05 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Astros -147 / Indians +125

MLB Betting Line

The Astros opened as the home favorite in Game 1 of this ALDS at -140 with a total of seven runs, but as of Friday morning, they are at -147 with a total of 6.5 runs. In the run-line for this game, the Indians are posted at -170 getting 1.5 runs and the Astros are at +150 giving 1.5 runs.

Cleveland at Houston ALDS Game 1 Setup

The defending World Series champion Houston Astros host the Cleveland Indians in Game 1 of this ALDS.

In their last game of the regular season, the Indians beat the Kansas City Royals 2-1. The Indians scored two runs on six hits, and the Royals scored one run on five hits. The Indians have won two of their last three games, and they easily won the AL Central title, as the only team in the division with a winning record.

In their last game of the regular season, the Astros lost to the Baltimore Orioles 4-0, which snapped their three-game winning streak. The Astros were held scoreless and only had one hit, and the Orioles scored four runs on eight hits.

The Astros had only given up six runs in their three-game win streak before giving up four in their season finale. They won the tough AL West with Oakland, who lost in the AL Wild Card game, and Seattle both finishing at least 16 games over .500.

This season the Indians rank 3rd in runs scored and 9th in team ERA and the Astros rank 6th in runs scored and 1st in team ERA.

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This season the Astros won four of their seven games against the Indians. Overall, the Indians are 27-13 in their last 40 games facing the Astros.

Pitching Match-Up

Cleveland: Corey Kluber (20-7 2.89 ERA)
Houston: Justin Verlander (16-9 2.52 ERA)

In Kluber's last start of the regular season, he gave up three earned runs on seven hits in five innings in a 9-4 loss to the Kansas City Royals. The Tribe had won his previous two starts where he totaled 15 innings and gave up three earned runs. The Indians were 1-1 this season against the Astros with Kluber on the hill in back-to-back outings on May 19th and May 25th. In the two starts facing them, Kluber gave up two earned runs in 13 1/3 innings. In 10 career appearances, including nine starts, against the Astros, Kluber is 6-3 with an ERA of 2.83.

Kluber ranked 2nd in the Majors in wins this season and ranked 5th in the AL in ERA. He notched 20 wins for the first time in his career and struck out over 200 batters (222) for the 5th straight season. While Kluber pitched well in the 2016 playoffs in Cleveland's run to the World Series, he struggled in last year's postseason giving up nine earned runs in only six 1/3 innings.

In Verlander's last start of the regular season, he had a great one tossing six scoreless innings and only gave up three hits in a 4-3 win over the Baltimore Orioles. The Astros have won his last five starts where he just gave up a total of four earned runs, and he has not given up any earned runs in his previous two outings where he totaled 12 innings. This will be Verlander's first start of the season facing the Indians.

Verlander ranked 3rd in the AL in ERA this season and struck out a career-high 290 batters. Last season in the playoffs in Houston's run to the World Series title Verlander was 4-1 with an ERA of 2.21, and in his career in the playoffs, he is 11-6 with an ERA of 3.06. This season Verlander pitched better on the road than at home where he was 4-7 with an ERA of 2.83, and at home, he gave up 19 of his 28 HR.

Indians at Astros MLB Betting Angles

The Indians are 27-13 in their last 40 games against the Astros.

In the last 4 games between these teams, the total has gone Over every time.

In the last 22 games between these teams in Houston, the Under record is 14-4-4.

Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Records

Cleveland Indians: 91-71 SU / O/U 76-75 / Run Line W/L 75-87
Houston Astros: 103-59 SU / O/U 69-84 / Run Line W/L 83-79

Cleveland at Houston MLB Key Betting Trends

  • CLE is 2-6 in their last 8 playoff games
  • CLE is 20-9 in their previous 29 road games against a right-hand starter
  • CLE has an Under record of 7-2 in their last 9 playoff road games
  • HOU is 4-1 in their last 5 home games
  • HOU is 21-6 in their previous 27 games
  • HOU has an Under record of 7-0-1 in their last 8 games

Key Player Injuries


[CF] 07/28/2018 - Tyler Naquin 60-day DL (07/28) ( Hip )
[CF] 08/09/2018 - Leonys Martin 60-day DL (08/09) ( Illness )
[P] 05/04/2018 - Danny Salazar 60-day DL (03/26) ( Shoulder )
[RF] 07/04/2018 - Lonnie Chisenhall 60-day DL (07/03) ( Calf )
[P] 06/20/2018 - Evan Marshall 10-day DL (06/20) ( Elbow )
[P] 03/26/2018 - Cody Anderson 60-day DL (02/25) ( Elbow )
[P] 03/26/2018 - Ryan Merritt 60-day DL (03/26) ( Knee )
[P] 03/26/2018 - James Hoyt 10-day DL (03/26) ( Oblique )


[P] 03/30/2018 - Brady Rodgers 10-day DL (03/26) ( Elbow )
[LF] 05/21/2018 - Derek Fisher 10-day DL (05/20) ( Intestinal )
[P] 03/26/2018 - Jandel Gustave 60-day DL (03/26) ( Elbow )

Get more details: Cleveland at Houston MLB Match-Up

Cleveland at Houston ALDS Prediction 10/05/2018

The Astros begin their quest to repeat as World Series champions hosting the Cleveland Indians. The Astros had the 2nd most wins in the Majors, and they led the bigs in team ERA. Verlander got over his August struggles, 5.29 ERA in six starts, by going 3-0 with an ERA of only 1.09 in five September starts. He will oppose Cleveland Ace Kluber, who pitched well in the two starts facing Houston this season. The Tribe easily won the weak AL Central this season and did have 91 wins, but they were eight games under .500 (23-31) facing teams with a winning record. Look for that trend to continue in this game. Verlander will have another great outing while Kluber will just be decent and facing the Astros in Houston decent will not cut it. The Astros will take the first game of this series to take a 1-0 lead in the ALDS.

Free Pick: 
Take the Astros -147

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