Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles Pick
Baltimore shellacked Cleveland for the second straight game matching Friday’s 13-0 score. The victory tied the season series up at three games apiece and likewise for the total that is a dead even 3-3 in 2019.
The Indians now have lost three of their last four games, but that did come on the back of four consecutive victories. The defeat also sent their seasonal road record below .500 to 19-20.
The Orioles back-to-back wins were only their second and third wins over their last 16 games overall and pushed their dismal home record to 11-30.
Shane Bieber: The Cleveland right-hander has pitched well over his last three games being charged with two earned runs in each outing. However, lack of run support and a blown save amounted to a record of 1-1 with a no-decision over the three starts. This will be Bieber's second start in his career against Baltimore, and he was brilliant in the first one with a complete game shutout Back on 5/19/19.
Gabriel Ynoa: Has been brutal in his last two outings getting tagged with seven runs over 2 1/3 at Seattle in his latest and six runs over 5 1/3 at Oakland. He has pitched OK at home allowing three fewer runs in all three starts this season (14IP 5ER). Ynoa hasn’t started against Cleveland since late 2017, and while it was decent his historical numbers against the Indians are not good with today’s projected lineup hitting a lifetime .308.
The Indians have scored a grand total of zero runs at Camden Yards this season, but they get arguably the Orioles weakest starter today. The team had been hitting OK prior to the series scoring five or more runs in six of their last nine games.
The last two games aside, Baltimore hasn't been lighting up scoring three or fewer runs in nine of their previous 13 games. They face a tough task on the mound today in Bieber who can dominate if he keeps the ball in the park.
Joe West is scheduled to be the Homeplate Umpire for today, and while he does have a strong bias to the home team with a 10-5 record on the season, he has called a lot of games with the home team a -200 or higher favorite. His 2019 record against the total is intriguing with a 4-11 mark versus the O/U.
The temperature is forecast to be in the high 80’s with a strong wind blowing in from left or left to right.
- Get more details: Indians at Orioles MLB Match-up Stats
Indians vs. Orioles Prediction 6/30/19
I do expect that the Indians will have some success against Orioles starter Ynoa, but scoring zero runs on 11 hits over their last two games at Camden doesn't make me feel super confident that they'll light it up. Same goes for the Orioles, sure they exploded for 26 runs in the first two, but Bieber is tough if he doesn't give up the long ball and he did make easy work of them in his lone career start against them in May. The weather forecast if it rings true also supports a lower scoring game with a strong crosswing , and we have this season's Mr. Under behind Homeplate. I have two sets of numbers that forecast this game to stay below eight runs, which would give us a comfortable win.
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