Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins Odds, Trends, Predictions

September 10, 7:15 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Cle -125/Minn +115
7.5un -115

After taking the first game of this key AL Central series Friday night, the Guardians go looking for more Saturday night at Target Field. Triston McKenzie, with his 0.97 WHIP, gets the call for first-place Cleveland here against Chris Archer for third-place Minnesota. Who do we like here for our free baseball betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Saturday's baseball betting lines opened Cleveland as a -130 favorite over Minnesota, with an over/under of 7.5 runs. Early betting action then dipped that line a nickel to -125.

Guardians-Twins MLB Betting Preview

Cleveland grabbed the opener of this series Friday night, 7-6. The Guardians scored four runs in the top of the first inning, later led 7-0, then had to hang on from there for the victory. Cleveland won Friday as a +100 underdog on the dime line and the game played over a total of 7.5 runs. With Friday's win, the Guardians are 3-1 over their last four games, following a five-game losing skid. At 71-65 overall, Cleveland now leads the AL Central by a game and a half over the second-place White Sox. With Friday's loss, Minnesota is 2-6 over its last eight games. At 69-68 overall, the Twins, after leading the division most of this season, now sit in third place, 2.5 games off the pace. The Guardians lead the season series with Minnesota seven games to five.

Saturday's Pitching Match-Up

Archer, somewhat amazingly, is 0/24 on quality starts this season, not throwing six innings one time. Monday, he held the Yankees to two runs and four hits through five innings, although Minnesota lost that game 5-2. And over his two starts previous to that, he gave up nine runs and 13 hits through just 8 1/3 innings. The Twins are just 8-16 with Archer this season, 1-9 his last ten times out. In his one start this season against Cleveland, back in late June, Archer allowed just one run and one hit, although he also walked six, through four innings of a 5-3 Minnesota defeat. McKenzie is 13/25 on quality starts this year, going OK as of late. Monday against Kansas City, he allowed three runs - two earned - and three hits through 5 2/3 innings of a game the Guardians eventually won 6-5 in 10 innings. And over his last three starts, he's allowed seven ER and 11 hits, including three home runs, through 16 2/3 innings. Cleveland is 15-10 with McKenzie this season but only 3-5 over his last eight starts. Over three starts already this season against the Twins, McKenzie got bombed for 16 runs and 20 hits, including seven dingers, through 17 1/3 innings. The Guardians lost two of those three games.

Splits With the Sticks

Cleveland is batting .258 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .316 team OBP and a .394 team slugging percentage. Minnesota is slashing .252/.321/.414 against right-handed pitching.

The Bullpens

The Twins bullpen owns a 3.85 ERA this season, along with a 1.28 WHIP. The Guardians pen owns a 3.16 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.

MLB Betting Trends

Cleveland is 38-35 on the road this season and 49-49 against right-handed starters. Minnesota is 40-30 at home and 46-50 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

  • The Under is 69-61 in Guardians games this season.
  • The Over is 65-62 in Twins games.
  • The Under is a combined 28-19 with Archer and McKenzie this season.
  • The Under is 37-29 at Target Field+ this season.

Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins Bedtting Prediction 9/10/22

We'd give McKenzie a solid edge in the pitching match-up, but he's been bad against Minnesota this season. So we're a bit leery. From there, Cleveland owns an edge in the bullpen comparison, while the splits with the sticks are about even. But the Guardians are trending in a good direction while the Twins are not, and that means a lot to us when handicapping baseball games. So we're betting Cleveland Saturday night. 

Free Pick: 
Take Cleveland -125