Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Pick

August 29, 7:10 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Mets -195/Cubs +175

Chicago Cubs (71-61) vs. New York Mets (67-65)

The Cubs shoot for the sweep of the Mets after taking the first two games of this series Thursday evening in New York. The Mets will throw an ace at Chicago, but for some reason, they've been having trouble winning with deGrom. How are we playing this game for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Thursday's MLB betting odds opened New York at around -185 over Chicago, with an over/under of 7.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped the Mets to -195.

New York could also be found “getting” around +100 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Cubs vs. Mets Set-Up

Chicago took the opener of this series Tuesday night 5-2, then won Wednesday 10-7. The Cubs won as -105 “favorites” on the MLB betting line Tuesday, then as +105 dogs against Noah Syndergaard Wednesday.

With Wednesday's win, Chicago is 2-3 over its last five games. At 71-61 overall the Cubs trail first-place St. Louis by two games in the NL Central, but they also own the No. 2 spot in the National League wild-card standings, two games clear of third-place Philadelphia.

With Wednesday's loss, New York now owns a five-game losing skid. At 67-65 overall the Mets trail first-place Atlanta by 12.5 games in the NL East, but they're only four games behind Chicago in the race for that second NL wild-card berth. So they're not dead yet.

The Cubs lead the season series with New York four games to two.

Thursday's Starting Arms

deGrom, by our strict standards, is 18/26 on quality starts this season and six for his last seven. Last Friday he held the Braves to one run and four hits through seven innings, with 13 strikeouts, although the Mets lost that game 2-1. And over his last seven starts, he's allowed just eight runs – five earned – and 28 hits through 47 innings, with 63 whiffs.

Somehow, New York is just 10-16 with deGrom this season, but 4-2 over his last six starts.

Over his last three starts against Chicago, two last year and one earlier this season, deGrom allowed just four runs and 23 hits through 21 innings, with 32 strikeouts. Somehow, the Mets lost all three of those games.

Lefty Lester is 11/25 on quality starts this year and only one for his last five. Last Friday he got knocked around for six runs and nine hits through just 4 1/3 innings of a 9-3 Cubs loss to Washington. And over his last five starts, he's allowed 25 runs – 23 earned – and 37 hits through 24 1/3 innings.

Chicago is 14-11 with Lester this season, but only 2-4 over his last six outings.

Over two starts last year against New York Lester allowed three runs and seven hits through 13 innings. The Cubs won both those games.

Thursday's Batting Splits

Chicago is batting .255/.333/.456 against right-handed pitching this season.

New York is batting .273/.342/.455 against left-handed pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Cubs bullpen owns a 4.19 ERA this season and a 1.36 WHIP, while allowing a .743 OPS.

The Mets pen owns a 4.96 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP while allowing a .798 OPS. Numbers like those are why we rank this unit among the worst handful of bullpens in Baseball.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 66-60 in Cubs games this season.
  • Overs are 64-55 in Mets games this season.
  • Overs are 29-28 in games played at Citi Field this season.
  • Overs are 3-2 in Cubs-Mets games this season.
  • Overs are a combined 28-20 with deGrom and Lester this season.

Cubs at Mets Prediction 08/29/2019

deGrom gets the check-mark in the pitching match-up, but for some reason, New York has trouble winning with him. Maybe that's got something to do with the Mets bullpen. We see good baseball betting value here with Chicago at the underdog price.

Free Pick: 
Take the Cubs +175

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