Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick 4/5/19

April 5, 8:10 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Brewers -120/Cubs +110

The Cubs and Brewers played down to the wire in the NL Central last season, plus one game, before deciding the division title. Friday night these teams begin their season series for this year with the opener of a three-game set at Miller Park. Who do we like for our free MLB baseball pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Friday's MLB betting odds opened Milwaukee and Woodruff at around -140 over Chicago and Quintana, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then pushed that line down as much as 20 cents, to around -120.

Cubs vs. Brewers Set-Up

Chicago (1-5) opened this season by dropping two of three games to the Rangers in Arlington, then just got swept three games earlier this week in Atlanta, losing the series finale Thursday 9-4. Overall the Cubs have lost five games in a row.

Chicago pitching has allowed at least six runs five games in a row, thanks in part to some piss-poor defense and a struggling bullpen.

Milwaukee (6-1) opened this season by taking three of four games from St. Louis, then just swept three games in Cincinnati earlier this week, each by one run. The Brewers then had Thursday off.

Milwaukee pitching has held opponents to just 12 runs over the last five games.

Last year the Cubs took the season series from the Brewers 11 games to nine, but Milwaukee won the most important meeting, that one-game playoff for the division title at Wrigley Field.

Friday's Starting Arms

Woodruff (1-0, 3.60) opened this season with a decent outing last Saturday against the Cardinals, allowing two runs and six hits through five innings of a 4-2 Brewers victory. But it did take him 100 pitches to get 15 outs, which is a bit much.

Last season, by our tough standards, Woodruff finished 0/4 on quality starts, never going six innings. Milwaukee went 3-1 in Woodruff's starts, with the overs going 3-1.

In three appearances last year against Chicago Woodruff gave up three runs on six hits through 5 2/3 innings.

Lefty Quintana (0-0, 0.00) is making his first start of this season. Last Saturday he threw four innings of relief at Texas, allowing two runs and five hits, striking out eight. He needed 81 pitches to get 12 outs.

Last season Quintana finished 13/32 on quality starts, but that ratio would have been better if not for a short leash. Seven times he got within three outs of a QS, only to be pulled. The Cubs finished 18-14 with Quintana, with the unders going 17-15.

In seven starts last year against Milwaukee Quintana allowed 10 ER on 29 hits and 10 walks through 42 1/3 innings. Chicago went 5-2 in those games, with the unders going 5-2.

Friday's Batting Splits

The Cubs are batting a healthy .351/.423/.565 against right-handed pitching this season, although most of that damage was done in the series in Texas.

The Brewers are batting .296/.387/.444 against left-handed pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Chicago bullpen has been touched for 21 earned runs on 27 hits and an alarming 19 walks through 21 1/3 innings of work this season.

The Milwaukee pen has allowed eight ER on 18 hits and eight walks through 26 1/3 innings this season.

Totals Report

  • The overs are 5-1 in Cubs games this season.
  • The unders are 4-2-1 in Brewers games this season.
  • The unders skewed 15-5 in Cubs-Brewers games last season.
  • The unders went 40-39-2 in games played at Miller Park last season.

Cubs ast Brewers Prediction 4/5/19

Milwaukee is hot, Chicago is not, and that's really all we need to know for this game. Also, while early betting action leaned toward the Cubs, we never have a problem going against the flow. We're betting  the Brew Crew here.

Free Pick: 
Take the Brewers -120