Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox Pick 7/6/19

July 6, 7:15 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Cubs -110/White Sox +100

The White Sox are playing some good ball as of late, while the Cubs are struggling, heading into the opener a two-game Windy City series Saturday evening down on the South Side. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Saturday's MLB betting odds opened the White Sox at around -110 over the Cubs, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then flipped the Cubbies into -110 favorites.

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Cubs vs. White Sox Set-Up

The Cubs just dropped three of four games at Pittsburgh earlier this week, avoiding the sweep and snapping a four-game losing streak with an 11-3 victory Thursday. They then had Friday off.

Just before that, the Cubs lost two of three at Cincinnati, and just before that they split four games with Atlanta. Going back a bit further the Cubs are 0-4-3 over their last seven series and 9-15 over their previous 24 games.

At 46-42 overall the Cubbies trail division-leading Milwaukee by a half-game in the NL Central, but they're also tied with Philadelphia for the lead in the National League wild-card race.

The White Sox, meanwhile, just took two of three games at home from Detroit, missing out on the sweep by losing Thursday 11-5. The Sox then also had Friday off.

Just before that the ChiSox took two of three from Minnesota. So the Sox are 5-2 over their last seven games.

At 41-43 overall the White Sox trail the first-place Twins by 12.5 games in the AL Central, but they're only six games behind Cleveland in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot.

This series is the second meeting between these teams this season. Two and a half weeks ago these teams split two games at Wrigley Field.

Saturday's Starting Arms

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played back on June 19, a 7-3 Cubs win at Wrigley.

Giolito, by our stringent standards, is 8/16 on quality starts this season but 0 for his last three. Last Sunday he held Minnesota scoreless on one hit through five innings of a 4-3 Sox victory. But over his two starts previous to that he gave up nine runs and 13 hits, including four homers, through 10 innings.

The White Sox are 12-4 with Giolito this season, but only 1-2 over his last three starts.

Over three career starts against the Cubs, two last year and the one 17 days ago, Giolito allowed 14 runs and 16 hits through 16 2/3 innings. The ChiSox only won one of those three games.

Lefty Lester is 7/16 on quality starts this year but only one for his last five. Last Sunday he gave up four runs – three earned - and five hits through 5 2/3 innings of an 8-6 Cubs loss to the Reds. And over his last five starts, he's allowed 16 ER and 31 hits, including eight ding-dongs, through 28 1/3 innings.

The Cubs are 9-7 with Lester this season, 2-2 over his last four starts.

Over his last three starts against the White Sox, two last year and the one 17 days ago, Lester allowed six ER and 19 hits through 16 1/3 innings. The Cubs won all three of those games.

Saturday's Batting Splits

The Cubs are batting .258/.338/.458 against right-handed pitching this season.

The White Sox are batting .272/.331/.426 against left-handed pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Cubs bullpen owns a 4.26 ERA this season and a 1.40 WHIP while allowing a .743 OPS.

The White Sox pen owns a 4.56 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP while allowing a .748 OPS.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 45-41 in Cubs games this season.
  • Overs are 42-40 in White Sox games this season.
  • Overs are 23-18 in games played at the place they now call Guaranteed Rate Field this season.
  • Overs are 11-4 with Lester this season.
  • Unders are 9-7 with Giolito this season.

Cubs at White Sox Prediction 07/06/2019

Giolito owns the better numbers this season, but Lester holds the better recent track record against Saturday's opponents. So we're calling this pitching match-up a push. And other factors are about even, too. But the White Sox are playing the better ball as of late, so we like the home team getting a short home-dog price for our free MLB pick in this spot.

Free Pick: 
Take the Sox +100

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