Braves vs. Dodgers Game 6 Pick

Date: 
October 17, 4:38 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
ATL +130/LAD -140
Total: 
8.5un -115

The Atlanta Braves are still only one win away from their first World Series berth since 1999, but the Los Angeles Dodgers can pull this National League Championship Series to even when the teams meet for Game 6 Saturday afternoon in Arlington. Atlanta took the first two games of this NLCS, but LA has won two of the last three, including Friday night's Game 5, staving off elimination. Can the Braves put the Dodgers away? Can Los Angeles force a Game 7? And how are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

The Game 6 betting odds opened LA at around -145 over Atlanta, with an over/under of eight runs. Early betting action then drove the Dodgers up a dime, to around -155. Los Angeles could also be found getting around +130, giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Braves vs. Dodgers Game 6 Set-Up

Los Angeles is the designated home team for this Game 6. Atlanta leads this NLCS three games to two following the Dodgers' 7-3 victory in Game 5 Friday night. LA spotted the Braves the first two runs of the game, pulled to within 2-1 in the fourth inning, then scored three runs in the sixth and three more in the seventh to pull away. The Dodgers won as -180 favorites on the MLB betting line Friday night and covered against the run line at a price of -130. Also, Game 5 sneaked over a total of nine runs when Atlanta pushed across a meaningless run in the bottom of the eighth. So the overs are now 4-1 in this NLCS, as the teams have combined to score 61 runs in five games. With Friday's win, LA is now 7-3 this postseason. With Friday's loss, the Braves are now 8-2 this postseason.

Game 6 Starting Arms

This pitching match-up is a rematch of Game 1 of this NLCS, a 5-1 Atlanta victory. Buehler is just 1/11 on quality starts this season, although that's due in large part to a short leash. In the opener of this NLCS Monday, he held Atlanta to one run and three hits through five innings, although he also walked five in that 5-1 Dodgers loss. So over three starts, this postseason Buehler has allowed four runs and just eight hits through 13 innings, with 23 strikeouts but also 11 bases on balls. On the season, LA is 9-2 with Buehler, 2-1 this postseason. Lefty Fried is 6/14 on quality starts this season and 2/3 this postseason. In the opener of this series Monday, he held the Dodgers to one run and four hits through six innings, with two walks and nine strikeouts. And in three starts this postseason, he's allowed five runs and 16 hits through 17 innings, with two walks and 18 whiffs. The Braves are 13-1 with Fried this season and 3-0 this postseason. Game 6 Batting Splits

Atlanta batted .273 this season against right-handed pitching, with a .354 team OBP and a .498 team slugging percentage. Numbers like those helped this lineup rank No. 1 in the Majors in this split. Los Angeles batted .250/.336/.442 against left-handed pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Dodgers pen posted a 2.74 ERA this season, along with an ML-best 1.04 WHIP and a 3.34 K/BB ratio. Numbers like those help this unit rank as the best bullpen in Baseball. But LA relievers have also allowed 17 runs and 27 hits through 22 2/3 innings in this NLCS, although the Dodgers bullpen covered seven innings Friday night, allowing just one run. The Atlanta bullpen posted a 3.50 ERA this season, along with a 1.28 WHIP and a 2.64 K/BB ratio. Braves relievers have also allowed 23 runs on 30 hits through 26 innings of work in this NLCS, including seven runs in seven innings Friday night.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Los Angeles played 13-5 against left-handed starters this season.
  • Atlanta played 27-21 against right-handed starters this season.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 6-4 in Dodgers games this postseason.
  • Totals are split 5-5 in Braves games this postseason.
  • Overs are 6-2 in games played at Globe Life Field this postseason.

Braves vs. Dodgers Game 6 Predictions

We're giving Fried a slight edge in the pitching match-up, and Atlanta also owns the edge in the splits with the sticks. If they can keep their bullpen from getting too involved, the Braves should be in good shape. Betting baseball often comes down to betting value, and we like the betting value here with Atlanta getting the underdog price.
 
Free Pick: 
Take Atlanta +130
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