Boston Red Sox vs. San Diego Padres Pick
Boston Red Sox (70-61) vs. San Diego Padres (59-69)
After taking the first two games of this three-game inter-league affair the Red Sox shoot for the sweep of the Padres Sunday afternoon in San Diego. How are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?
MLB Betting Odds
Sunday's MLB betting odds opened San Diego at around -120 over Boston, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then bumped that total to 9.5.
Red Sox vs. Padres Set-Up
Boston won the opener of this series Friday night 11-0, then won Saturday 5-4 with a run in the top of the ninth inning. The Red Sox won as -120 favorites on the MLB betting line Friday, then as -125 chalk Saturday.
Also, Boston played over a game total of eight runs by itself Friday, while Saturday's game pushed a total of nine runs.
With Saturday's win, Boston is 7-2 over its last nine games. At 70-61 overall the Red Sox trail the division-leading Yankees by a distant 14 games in the AL East but they're "only" six games behind Tampa Bay in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot.
With Saturday's loss, San Diego now owns a four-game losing skid. At 59-69 overall the Padres are 9.5 games from the nearest National League playoff spot, so they're basically just playing out the string on yet another season.
This series is the first meeting between these two teams since the Sox took two of three games from the Padres back in 2016.
Sunday's Starting Arms
Lefty Lucchesi, by our strict standards, is 8/24 on quality starts this season and only one for his last four. Last Sunday he held Philadelphia to two runs and three hits through six innings of a 3-2 San Diego victory. But over his last four starts, he's allowed 11 runs and 17 hits through 21 2/3 innings.
On the season the Padres are 10-14 with Lucchesi, just 1-6 over his last seven starts, although that's not all his fault.
This start will be Lucchesi's first-ever appearance against Boston.
Fellow southpaw Johnson is 0/6 on quality starts this year, doing what amounts to some "opener" work. Tuesday he gave up three runs and six hits through 3 2/3 innings of a 3-2 Red Sox loss to the Phillies. And over his last four outings, he's allowed ten runs – nine earned – and 19 hits through 12 innings.
Boston is 3-3 when Johnson starts this season.
This start will be Johnson's first-ever appearance against San Diego.
Sunday's Batting Splits
Boston is batting .262/.331/.471 against left-handed pitching this season.
San Diego is batting .258/.337/.442 against LH pitching this season.
The Red Sox bullpen owns a 4.20 ERA this season and a 1.34 WHIP while allowing a .724 OPS.
The Padres pen owns a 4.62 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP while allowing a .744 OPS.
- Overs are a lopsided 75-52 in Red Sox games this season.
- Overs are 60-59 in Padres games this season.
- Overs are 32-28 in games played at Petco Park this season.
- Get more details: Red Sox at Padres MLB Match-up Stats
Red Sox at Padres Prediction 08/25/2019
San Diego may own a short edge in the pitching match-up, but Boston gets the check-marks in the splits with the sticks and the bullpen comparison. Plus, the Sox are just playing the better ball as of late, and they're getting an underdog price. We're betting Boston with our free MLB pick for Sunday.