Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees ALDS Game 3 Pick - Odds
MLB Betting Line
The Yankees opened at -165 as the home favorite in Game 3 with a total of 8.5 runs and while the total has held the moneyline on the Yankees has risenas high as -175 at some betting sites. The run-line odds list the Red Sox -135 getting 1.5 runs and the Yankees are at +115 giving 1.5 runs.
Red Sox at Yankees MLB Game Set-up
In Game 2 of this series the Yankee evened it up at a game apiece with a 6-2 win. The Yankees scored six runs, including three in the first two innings, on eight hits and the Red Sox scored two runs on five hits.
The Red Sox had won two in a row before the Game 2 loss in their last game and they have lost four of their last six games. Mookie Betts won the AL batting title this season (.346), but in the two games in this series is only 1 for seven with two strikeouts.
The Yankees have won two of their last three games and with the Game 2 win they now have home field advantage in this series. New York set a MLB record with 267 HR on the season and they have six HR in their three playoff games. Aaron Judge has gone yard in all three playoff games and in the post-season he is 7 for 12 with four RBI and five runs.
This season the Red Sox rank 1st in runs scored and 8th in team ERA and the Yankees rank 2nd in runs scored and 10th in team ERA.
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This season, including this series, the Red Sox are 11-10 against the Yankees. However, the Yankees have won eight of their last 11 home games facing the Red Sox.
Pitching Match Up
Boston: Nathan Eovaldi (6-7 3.81 ERA)
New York: Luis Severino (19-8 3.39 ERA)
In Eovaldi’s last start of the regular season he only lasted two innings not giving up any earned runs and allowing one hit in an 8-5 Boston loss. The Red Sox lost two of his last three starts, but in that span he totaled 13 innings and only gave up one earned run. Both of those losses came facing the Yankees, but the bullpen let him down, as he totaled eight innings and did not give up any earned runs.
This game will be Eovaldi’s first career post-season appearance. In four starts against the Yankees this season, three with Boston and one with Tampa Bay, he had an ERA of only 1.93. The Red Sox have lost four of Eovaldi’s last five road starts and they have lost five of his last six starts against a team with a winning record.
Severino got the start in the AL Wild Card game and had a good outing not giving up any earned runs and he only allowed two hits in the 7-2 New York win. The Yankees have won his last three starts where he has totaled 16 innings and gave up three earned runs. The Yankees are 3-2 in Severino’s five starts against the Red Sox this season and his 2nd to last start of the regular season came facing them where he gave up one earned run in seven innings in a 10-1 New York win. The Yankees have won Severino’s last four home starts facing the Red Sox.
In five career playoff starts Severino is 1-1 with an ERA of 4.50. The Yankees have won 40 of Severino’s last 52 starts and they have won 23 of his last 27 home starts.
Boston at New York MLB Betting Angles
The Yankees are 8-3 in their last 11 home games against the Red Sox.
In the last 7 games between these teams the Over record is 6-1.
In the last 5 games between these teams in New York the Over record is 4-1.
Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Records
Boston Red Sox: 109-55 SU / O/U 78-77 / Run Line W/L 92-72
New York Yankees: 102-63 SU / O/U 80-78 / Run Line W/L 86-79
Red Sox at Yankees MLB Key Betting Trends
- BOS is 2-7 in their last 9 playoff games
- BOS is 48-20 in their last 68 road games against a right-hand starter
- BOS has an Over record of 6-1-1 in their last 8 games
- NY is 7-0 in their last 7 home playoff games
- NY is 5-2 in their last 7 games
- NY has an Over record of 8-1 in their last 9 games
Key Player Injuries
[1B] 10/07/2018 - Mitch Moreland left last game, is "?" Monday vs New York Yankees ( Hamstring )
[P] 10/07/2018 - Steven Wright is out indefinitely ( Knee )
[P] 09/27/2018 - Tyler Thornburg is out for season ( Shoulder )
[2B] 06/02/2018 - Dustin Pedroia 60-day DL (05/30); is out for season ( Knee )
[P] 05/15/2018 - Carson Smith 60-day DL (05/15) ( Shoulder )
[P] 03/30/2018 - Austin Maddox 60-day DL (03/29) ( Shoulder )
[SS] 03/26/2018 - Marco Hernandez 60-day DL (03/29) ( Shoulder )
[RF] 10/06/2018 - Aaron Hicks is "?" Monday vs Boston Red Sox ( Hamstring )
[LF] 09/19/2018 - Clint Frazier 60-day DL (09/19) ( Concussion )
[P] 07/07/2018 - Jonathan Loaisiga 10-day DL (07/07) ( Shoulder )
[P] 06/10/2018 - Jordan Montgomery is out for season ( Elbow )
[CF] 05/02/2018 - Jacoby Ellsbury 60-day DL (03/26) ( Oblique )
[P] 04/04/2018 - Ben Heller 60-day DL (03/27) ( Elbow )
Get more details: Boston at New York MLB Match-Up
Red Sox at Yankees ADLS Game 3 Prediction 10/08/2018
The Yankees have home field advantage in this series after their Game 2 win against Boston and Severino had a great start facing them late in the season. The Red Sox was the highest scoring team in the Majors this season, but they have only totaled seven runs in the first two games of this series. Eovaldi pitched well at the end of the season, and has a solid history against the Yankees. That said, Judge has been on fire and Gary Sanchez had two HR in the Game 2 win and while I believe that both pithers can have good starts, the current form of the Yankees bats has me laying the lumber in this game.