Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Pick - Odds and Betting Predictions

Date: 
October 16, 5:09 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
Astros -130 / Red Sox +120
Total: 
8.5

MLB Betting Line

The Astros opened as the home favorite listed at -135 for this playoff matchup with a total of 8.5 runs, and while the total has not changed as of Tuesday morning, Houston is fallen to -130. In the run-line for this game, the Red Sox are +1.5 runs -175 and run line bettors get rewarded with +155 for laying the 1.5 runs.

Setup

In Game 2 of this ALCS, the Red Sox evened the series at a game apiece with a 7-5 win over the Astros. The Red Sox scored seven runs on nine hits, and the Astros scored five runs on seven hits.

The Red Sox have won three of their last four playoffs games, but the loss in that span was in Game 1 of this series, which gave up the Astros home field advantage. Boston has not had the best pitching in the series giving up 12 runs in the two games.

The Astros had their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss to the Red Sox in Game 2, which was their first playoff loss. In winning four straight Houston had only given up a total of eight runs before giving up seven to the Red Sox in Game 2.

This season the Red Sox rank 1st in runs scored and 8th in team ERA and the Astros rank 6th in runs scored and 1st in team ERA.

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Head-To-Head

This season, including this series, the Astros have won five of nine games against the Red Sox.

Pitching Match-Up

Boston: Nathan Eovaldi (6-7 3.81 ERA)
Houston: Dallas Keuchel (12-11 3.74 ERA)

Eovaldi’s last start was in Game 3 of the ALDS, and he had a good one giving up one earned run on five hits in seven innings in a 16-1 win over the New York Yankees. The Red Sox have won two of his last three starts, and in his previous four starts, he has totaled 20 innings and only gave up two earned runs. Eovaldi’s lone start against the Astros came on June 20th when he was still with the Tampa Bay Rays, and he gave up four earned runs in six innings.

Eovaldi has not allowed a HR in his last five starts. However, he will be facing an Astros lineup that has set an MLB playoff record going deep in 14 straight post-season games. The Red Sox have lost five of Eovaldi’s last seven starts facing a team with a winning record.

Keuchel’s last start was in Game 3 of the ALDS where he gave up two earned runs on four hits in five innings in an 11-3 win over the Cleveland Indians. The Astros have won his last three starts where he has totaled 13 innings and gave up six earned runs. Keuchel’s lone start facing the Red Sox was on September 9th in Boston where he was not sharp giving up five earned runs on nine hits in six innings in a 6-5 Houston loss.

In 16 home starts this season Keuchel was 4-6 with an ERA of 3.90. While the Astros have won 13 of Keuchel's last 19 starts they have lost six of his previous seven home starts facing a team with a winning record.

Boston at Houston MLB Betting Angles

In the last 52 games between these teams, the Over record is 35-16-1`.

In the last 7 games between these teams in Houston, the Over record is 6-1.

Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Records

Boston Red Sox: 112-56 SU / O/U 81-78 / Run Line W/L 95-73
Houston Astros: 107-60 SU / O/U 73-85 / Run Line W/L 87-80

Red Sox at Astros MLB Key Betting Trends

  • BOS is 5-2 in their last 7 ALCS games
  • BOS is 6-2 in their previous 8 games against a left-hand starter
  • BOS has an Over record of 13-3-1 in their last 17 games
  • HOU is 13-3 in their last 16 home games
  • HOU is 4-0 in their previous 4 ALCS home games
  • HOU has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games

Key Player Injuries

RED SOX

[1B] 10/14/2018 - Mitch Moreland is "?" Tuesday vs. Houston Astros ( Hamstring )
[P] 10/07/2018 - Steven Wright is out indefinitely ( Knee )
[P] 09/27/2018 - Tyler Thornburg is out for season ( Shoulder )
[2B] 06/02/2018 - Dustin Pedroia 60-day DL (05/30); is out for season ( Knee )
[P] 05/15/2018 - Carson Smith 60-day DL (05/15) ( Shoulder )
[P] 03/30/2018 - Austin Maddox 60-day DL (03/29) ( Shoulder )
[SS] 03/26/2018 - Marco Hernandez 60-day DL (03/29) ( Shoulder )

ASTROS

[P] 03/30/2018 - Brady Rodgers 10-day DL (03/26) ( Elbow )
[LF] 05/21/2018 - Derek Fisher 10-day DL (05/20) ( Intestinal )
[P] 03/26/2018 - Jandel Gustave 60-day DL (03/26) ( Elbow )

Get more details: Boston at Houston MLB Match-Up

Boston at Houston MLB Prediction 10/16/2018

The Red Sox tied up this series with their win in Game 2, and they have a hot pitcher on the mound in Eovaldi. In his last six starts he has only allowed more than one earned run once and in that game, he gave up just two earned runs. On the other side of the coin Keuchel has given up six earned runs in his last three starts, but he isn’t getting deep in games failing to go past the 5th inning in any of his previous three outings. Keuchel had one start against the Red Sox this season and was not at his best getting tagged for five runs in seven frames of work at Fenway back in September. Additionally, the Astros have lost six of their last seven games at home with Keuchel on the hill facing a team with a winning record. Naturally, Boston fits that metric, who led the Majors in wins this season. I’m forecasting the Red Sox lineup will pick off where they left off in Game 2 scoring runs early, as they will get to Keuchel early and often. Eovaldi will continue his string of strong starts, and the Red Sox will take Game 3 in the Lone Star State and take back home field advantage in the series.

Free Pick: 
Take the Boston Red Sox +125
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