Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros Odds & Predictions
The Astros are closing in on the Yankees in the battle for the best record in the American League, while the Red Sox are coming off a terrible month of July, heading into the opener of a three-game series in Houston Monday night. Luis Garcia takes his turn for the home team here against Nathan Eovaldi for Boston. Here's how we homeworked this game for our free baseball betting pick.
MLB Betting Odds
Monday's baseball betting lines opened Houston and Garcia at around -175 over Boston and Eovaldi, with an over/under of eight runs. Early betting action then bumped the Astros 15 cents to -190. Houston could also be found getting around +115, giving the run and a half on the run line.
Red Sox-Astros MLB Betting Preview
Boston just dropped two of three games at home to Milwaukee, avoiding the sweep by taking Sunday's series finale 7-2. Just before that, the Red Sox split four games with Cleveland, and just before that, they got swept three games by Toronto. Going back about a month or so, Boston is 0-7-2 over its last nine series and 9-21 over its last 30 games. At 51-52 overall, the Red Sox are basically dead in the AL East race, but they only trail Tampa Bay by 3.5 games in the battle for the No. 3 spot in the American League wild-card standings. Houston, meanwhile, just took three of four games at home from divisional-rival Seattle, winning Sunday's series finale 3-2 in 10 innings. Just before that, the Astros got swept three games at Oakland, but just before that, they swept three games at Seattle. Going back a bit further, Houston is 3-1 over its last four series and 8-4 over its last 12 games. At 67-36 overall, the Astros lead the AL West by 12 games over the second-place Mariners, and they're within two games of the Yankees in the battle for the best record in the American League. This series is the second meeting between these teams this season; back in May, Boston took two of three games from Houston at Fenway Park.
Monday's Pitching Match-Up
Garcia is 6/18 on quality starts this season. Last Tuesday, he gave up four runs on four hits and four walks through 5 2/3 innings of a 5-3 Houston loss to Oakland. But over his two starts previous to that, he held the Yankees and Angels to three runs and four hits through 11 innings in a pair of Astros wins. Houston is 12-6 with Garcia this season, 6-1 his last seven times out. Over four career starts against Boston, three last year, including two in the American League championship series, and one earlier this season, Garcia allowed nine ER and 13 hits through 17 2/3 innings. The Astros split those four games. Eovaldi is 5/15 on quality starts this year and 0 for his last three. Last Wednesday, he gave up five runs - four earned - and nine hits through six innings of a 7-6 Red Sox loss to the Indians. And over his last three starts, he's given up 16 ER and 23 hits through just 13 total innings. Boston is 7-8 with Eovaldi this season, 0-2 his last two times out. Over his last four starts against Houston, three last year, including two in the ALCS, and one earlier this season, Eovaldi allowed 15 runs and 29 hits through 17 total innings. The Red Sox won just one of those four games.
Splits With the Sticks
Boston is batting .252 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .310 team OBP and a .403 team slugging percentage. Houston is slashing .241/.320/.425 against right-handed pitching.
The Astros bullpen owns an ML-best 2.79 ERA this season and a 1.13 WHIP. The Red Sox pen owns a 4.27 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP.
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MLB Betting Trends
- The Red Sox are 26-27 on the road this season and 34-44 against right-handed starters.
- The Astros are 33-15 at home and 43-25 against right-handed starters.
- The Under is 48-46 in Red Sox games this season.
- The Under is 62-38 in Astros games.
- The Under is 29-17 at Minute Maid Park this season.
Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros
Garcia gets our handicapping check-mark in the pitching match-up, and Houston owns a significant edge in the bullpen comparison. Also, the Astros are trying to overtake the Yankees in the League race while Boston is heading in the wrong direction. So we like Houston here. We also like taking chances. So we'll chase the better price and give the run and a half with the Astros against the run line.