Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros Odds & Predictions

October 22, 8:08 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Bos +105/Hous -115
9ov -118

The Houston Astros find themselves one win away from their third trip to the World Series in the last five seasons, heading into Game 6 of this best-of-seven American League championship series Friday night H-Town.

These teams split the first four games of this ALCS, but the Astros took the crucial Game 5 Wednesday night in Boston to return home with a series lead.

Houston opened this ALCS as a -150 favorite to win it, with the Red Sox Boston getting +130 as the underdogs. Now the Astros are chalked at -385 to win the pennant, with Boston getting +290.

It’s a rematch of Game 2 of this series as Luis Garcia hits the hill for Houston here against Nathan Eovaldi for the Sox. How are we playing this game with our free baseball betting pick?

ALCS Betting Odds

The MLB oddsboard opened Houston at around -120 for this Game 6, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then dipped that line to -115 and bumped that total to nine.

ALCS Game 6 Betting Preview

Houston leads this ALCS three games to two following Wednesday’s 9-1 Game 4 victory. The Astros led that game 1-0 through five innings, then put up a five-spot in the top of the sixth and cruised from there.

Houston won Wednesday as a +110 underdog on the betting line and the game, like the four others before it, played over its total.

So the Astros are now 6-3 this postseason, Boston 6-4.

Houston has also now out-scored the Red Sox in this series 31-28, and 12 of Boston's runs came in one game.

The Astros played three games better than the Red Sox during the regular season, 95 wins to 92, and took the season series five games to two.

Game 6 Pitching Match-Up

This pitching match-up is a rematch of Game 2 of this series, a 9-5 Boston victory.

Garcia is making his third start of this postseason; he’s hoping for better results. First, in that ALDS against the White Sox, he allowed five runs in less than three innings of a 12-6 Houston loss. Then in Game 2 of this series, he gave up five runs in one-plus inning, then left with a sore knee.

So the Astros are 0-2 with Garcia this postseason.

In his one other start against the Red Sox this season, back in June, Garcia allowed just one run and five hits through seven frames of a 5-1 Houston win.

Eovaldi is making his fifth appearance of this postseason; the first three went OK, as he held the Yankees, Tampa, and this Houston team to six runs and 12 hits through 15 2/3 innings, with two walks and 19 strikeouts. Then came the ninth inning Tuesday night, when a blown strike-3 call led to four runs and a Boston loss.

Still, the Red Sox are 3-0 in Eovaldi’s starts this postseason.

However, over three appearances now this season against the Astros, Eovaldi has allowed 12 runs and 18 hits through just 11 2/3 innings.

Splits With the Sticks

Houston batted .266 against right-handed pitching this season, which ranked No. 1 in the Majors in that split, with a .339 team OBP, which also ranked No. 1, and a .442 team slugging percentage, which ranked No. 5. The Astros have also scored at least six runs in six of their nine games this postseason.

Boston batted .260 against RH pitching this season, which ranked No. 3, with a .328 team OBP and a .460 team slugging percentage, which ranked No. 2. But the Red Sox have also scored just three runs total over their last two games.

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The Bullpens

The Boston bullpen posted a 3.99 ERA this season, along with a 1.39 WHIP and a 2.37 K/BB ratio.

The Houston pen posted a 4.06 ERA this season, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 2.47 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Boston played 43-38 on the road this season.
  • Houston played 51-30 at home.
  • Boston played 57-39 against right-handed starters this season.
  • Houston played 61-39 vs. RH starters.

Totals Report

The Under is 84-72 in Red Sox games.

Overs played 86-68 in Astros games this season.

Overs played 45-35 at Minute Maid Park this season.

Overs are 5-0 in this ALCS.

Boston at Houston Game 6 Prediction

This game comes out to almost even according to our main baseball handicapping factors; the line should be about a pick ‘em, and it almost is. But Big Mo carries a lot of weight from there, and he flew home with Houston Wednesday night. Plus, we expect better from Garcia than he's shown lately, and those Astros bats are hot. We like Houston to take this Game 6 and the pen-nant.
Free Pick: 
Take the Astros -115