Betting MLB Win Totals

Ender Inciarte

One of the most popular betting props ahead of any MLB regular seasons is on the odds for each team’s projected win total. Given that the schedule covers 162 games, there can be a rather wide margin of error in any projected total.

Going through the list of each MLB team’s projected wins and the corresponding money line odds for betting the OVER or UNDER, there are a trio of teams with some solid value in the current numbers at BetOnline.

Atlanta Braves- 90.5 (-140 UNDER/ +120 OVER)

The early money on this win total prop points towards a drop off in Atlanta coming off back to back NL East titles. However, the MLB futures odds at BetOnline still have the Braves as +750 second-favorites to win the NL Pennant behind the Los Angeles Dodgers as heavy +160 favorites

Atlanta jumped to 97 wins last season behind a strong second-half push. This followed a 90-72 record in 2018 that was good enough for first place in the division. It could be a tall task to get to 91 wins or more this year in a very competitive division, but on paper, this is still the best team in the race.

The core of last year’s team remains intact to give the Braves an immediate edge. Improvements to the bullpen is another plus. While it will be hard for Atlanta to match last year’s record, I will still go with the value play on the OVER with at least 91 wins.

Cincinnati Reds- 84.5 Games (-110 UNDER/ -110 OVER)

The bar has definitely been raised for a team that has not posted a winning record since 2013. It is moving in the right direction with 75 wins last season after failing to cross the 70-win mark four years in a row.

The big question with the Reds is how quickly things will come together to produce 85 wins or more. They did bulk up their lineup, which should add some more runs to the mix. Pitching was one of Cincinnati's strong suits with Luis Castillo and Sonny Grey. Playing in the highly competitive NL Central may provide some added motivation to hang with the frontrunners, but it could also add up to quite a few losses over the course of the season.

Reds' fans should remain optimistic that their team will be much more competitive in 2020, but the value in the odds still points to the UNDER as the best bet.

Baltimore Orioles- 56.5 Games (-110 UNDER/ -110 OVER)

Baltimore’s total wins for this season have been set at 56.5 games after winning just 54 games in 2019. Last season’s effort was actually a seven-game improvement from the year before when the Orioles sunk to 47-115.

The current even money odds suggest that there are bettors are both sides of the number. It could also indicate that even the most diehard Baltimore fans have lost interest in the team's fortunes this year.

Instead of looking to the future for how Baltimore can add just three more wins to take this total OVER, I am looking at the past. This was a team that won 89 games only four years earlier. Many of the faces have changed from the Orioles' three playoff appearances in five years. Yet, there is still a legacy of winning built into this franchise to add value to the OVER play on a low total.

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