Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Pick

September 23, 7:07 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Orioles +115 / Blue Jays -135

This game is the first of a three-game series between these AL East rivals.

In their last game, the Orioles beat the Seattle Mariners 2-1. The Orioles scored two runs on only three hits, and the Mariners were held to one run on seven hits. Both teams scored one run in the first inning, and the only run after that came on Chris Davis' solo HR in the 7th innings.

In their last game, the Blue Jays lost to the New York Yankees 8-3. Toronto scored three runs on nine hits, and the Yankees scored eight runs on seven hits. The Blue Jays gave up six runs in the first two innings and allowed three HR in the loss.

After losing four games in a row, the Orioles have won two of their last three games, and the Blue Jays had won five straight before losing their previous two games.

This season the Orioles rank 23rd in runs scored, and 30th in team ERA and the Blue Jays rank 22nd in runs scored and 21st in team ERA.

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Pitching Match-Up

Baltimore: Chandler Shepherd (0-0 4.91 ERA)

Toronto: Clay Buchholz (1-5 6.48 ERA)

Shepherd is a rookie and making his 4th appearance and 2nd start of the season. His last appearance was his first career start, and he gave up three earned runs on four hits, including two HR, in an 8-5 loss to the Blue Jays. His previous two appearances were in relief, and he totaled seven innings and gave up three earned runs. Before being called up to the big club, Sheppard was 3-5 in 14 appearances, including 12 starts, with an ERA of 4.60 in AAA.

Buchholz was lit up in his last start only lasting three 2/3 innings and giving up seven earned runs on ten hits, but the lineup bailed him out in an 11-10 win over the Orioles. The Blue Jays had lost his previous two starts where he gave up seven earned runs in 10 innings. Since missing nearly four months of the season with a shoulder injury, Buchholz is 1-3 and his last start, which was his worst of the season, was his first facing the Orioles. The Blue Jays are 2-6 in his previous eight starts, and they are 1-4 in his last five starts against a team with a losing record.

Betting Angles

  • The Blue Jays are 6-2 in their last eight games against the Orioles.
  • The Blue Jays are 73-35 in their last 108 home games against the Orioles.
  • In the last 62 games between these teams, the Under record is 41-19-2.
  • In the last 31 games between these teams in Toronto, the Under record is 24-7.

Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Records

Baltimore Orioles: 51-105 SU / O/U 78-69 / Run Line W/L 66-90

Toronto Blue Jays: 63-93 SU / O/U 72-76 / Run Line W/L 76-80

Key Betting Trends

  • BAL is 19-53 in their last 72 road games against a team with a losing record
  • BAL is 2-5 in their last seven games
  • BAL has an Under record of 5-1 in their last six games
  • TOR is 5-2 in their last seven games
  • TOR is 8-2 in their previous ten games against a team with a winning % below .400
  • TOR has an Over record of 7-2-1 in their previous ten games

Team Info

The Orioles have won two of their last three games but still have the 2nd fewest wins in baseball. Last week at home they were swept at the hands of the Blue Jays giving up 27 runs in the three-game series. However, the next series was their last winning two of three games where they gave up only three runs in the two wins and gave up seven runs in the one loss.

The Blue Jays lineup was solid in their five-game win streak, especially in the series sweep of the Orioles, but they have only scored five runs in their last two games. In their previous two games, Toronto struck out 30 times. They have the 4th fewest wins in the Majors, but they are 11-8 against the Orioles this season.

Key Player Injuries


OF Mason Williams and OF Trey Mancini are both listed as questionable for this game.


SS Bo Bichette has missed the last three days due to a concussion and is listed as questionable for this game.

Orioles at Blue Jays Prediction 09/23/19

The Jays swept the Orioles on the road last week, and in one of the games Buchholz was less than sharp giving up seven runs and failing to make it out of the 4th inning. I see him getting tagged up again in this game, but unlike the last one, he will not get a lot of run support. Sheppard will have a good outing in the 2nd one his career but not a great one. However, the Orioles will get it done at the dish facing a struggling Buchholz, and that is why they will take the first game of this division series.

Free Pick: 
Take Baltimore +115

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