Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners Pick
The Mariners won the first two in this series to help extend the Orioles losing streak to double digits. Baltimore will try to get back in the win column this afternoon with Andrew Cashner on the mound while Tommy Milone will get the start for Seattle. First pitch is scheduled to be thrown at 4:10 at T-Mobile Park.
The Betting Lines
Seattle opened this game on some boards with a moneyline in the low -150’s but has now settled in at around -175 at most of the sportsbooks we track. The total line is offered up at 9 runs but has been receiving a lot of downward pressure with most shops hanging an inflated price on the UNDER.
The Starting Pitchers
Andrew Cashner: Comes into this game off two quality starts, both on the road, allowing a combined two earned runs over 12 innings pitched. This will be his first start versus the Mariners this season. In two starts last season he allowed six runs over 10 2/3 frames with the Orioles dropping both games.
Tommy Milone: The Seattle left-hander has yet to pick up a QS in three starts, but he has looked good in his last three outings. He didn't start in his previous three appearances, but he was the primary pitcher for each game pitching 5 1/3, 6 and 6 1/3 innings and allowing a total of five earned runs over the 17 2/3 innings. Milone hasn’t started against Baltimore since 2015, but he does have historical experience against Chris Davis (5 for 14), Jonathan Villar (3 for 8) and Hanser Alberto (0-2).
The Mariners hold a massive edge with their bats scoring an MLB fourth-ranked 418 runs this season compared to the Orioles 27th ranked 302. The long ball has been their strength with only the Twins hitting more (143 to 141). Baltimore again is near the bottom of baseball hitting a 24th ranked 88.
Recent form favors the host with Seattle scoring five or more runs in each of their last three and putting up four or more in five of their last six and eight of their last ten. The Orioles did get to Mariners' pitching previous night with nine runs, but they had failed to score more than three runs in seven of their last eight.
Behind the Plate
Umpire CB Buckner has the home plate honors this afternoon at T-Mobile Park which is a significant deterrent for playing OVER in this game. Buckner has an under leaning 5-7 O/U record this season behind home plate but was 11-17, 7-16 and 12-15 over the previous three seasons. Big home favorites are another bias he has, and while we are not quite there yet on many boards, he is 9-3 over the last three-plus seasons when the home team has a closing line of more than -180.
The average game-time temperature is expected to be in mid 60’s with the wind a light wing (5MPH) blowing out to left field.
- Baltimore is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Baltimore's last 10 games on the road
- Baltimore is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Seattle
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing Seattle
- Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
- The total has gone OVER in 10 of Seattle's last 13 games
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games at home
- Seattle is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
- Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore
- Get more details: Baltimore at Seattle MLB Match-up Stats
Orioles vs. Mariners Prediction 6/22/19
I'm not a big trend player in football, but in MLB it does offer some value and should be used in your handicapping. This afternoon's game has a few strong trends supporting a total bet on the OVER, but Buckner behind the plate has me shying away from that. I'll go instead with a run line wager on the Mariners. The runline play on a home team is always a risky bet, but today’s matchup has enough stats to back it up. Seattle had won eight straight games by three or more runs until last night's one run victory. The Orioles took advantage of a reliever making his first start in three seasons and his first 2019 MLB appearance last night and may revert back to the team that scored over three runs just once in eight games losing all of the seven games by three or more runs. Look for Seattle to start another streak.