Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians Odds, Analysis, Predictions

August 31, 6:10 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Balt +154/Cle -167
8ov -118

After taking the opener of this three-game series Tuesday night, the first-place Indians - err, Guardians - shoot for the series victory Wednesday night. Young Triston McKenzie and his 0.95 WHIP go for Cleveland here against veteran Jordan Lyles for Baltimore.

How are we playing this game with our free baseball betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Wednesday's baseball betting lines opened Cleveland at around -160 over Baltimore, with an over/under of eight runs. Early betting action then goosed the Guardians 15 cents to -175.

Orioles-Guardians MLB Betting Preview

Cleveland grabbed the first game of this series Tuesday night, 5-1. Guardians pitching held Baltimore to just one hit on the night on the way to victory as a -140 favorite on the dime line.

Also, Tuesday's game played under a total of eight runs.

With Tuesday's win, Cleveland is 4-4 over its last eight games. At 68-59 overall, the Guardians lead the AL Central by a game and a half over second-place Minnesota.

With Tuesday's loss, the Orioles are 3-3 over their last six games. At 67-61 overall, Baltimore won't catch the Yankees in the AL East, but it also only trails Toronto by three games in the battle for the No. 3 spot in the AL wild-card standings.

Cleveland leads the season series with the Orioles three games to one.

Wednesday's Pitching Match-Up

McKenzie is 13/23 on quality starts this season and three for his last four. Last Thursday, he allowed three runs and three hits through six innings of a 3-1 Cleveland loss to Seattle. And over his last four starts, he's allowed seven runs and 16 hits through 27 2/3 innings, with five walks and 29 strikeouts.

The Guardians are 14-9 with McKenzie this season, and that's probably a game or two worse than they should be, based on his performances.

In his only career start against Baltimore, back in June of this season, McKenzie allowed five runs and three home runs through seven innings of a 5-4 Cleveland defeat.

Lyles is 10/26 quality starts this year. Last Thursday, he held the White Sox to two runs - one earned - and nine hits through seven innings of a game the Orioles eventually won 4-3 in 11 innings. But over his two starts previous to that, he gave up eight runs and 14 hits through 8 1/3 innings.

Baltimore is 13-13 with Lyles this season, and that's probably a couple of games worse than it should be.

Over his two career starts against the Indians, both last season while with Texas, one good and one bad, Lyles allowed nine runs and 11 hits through 10 2/3 innings. The Rangers split those two games.

Splits With the Sticks

Baltimore is batting .238 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .304 team OBP and a .392 team slugging percentage. The Orioles have also been held to a total of 14 runs over their last six games.

Cleveland is slashing .258/.317/.399 against right-handed pitching.

The Bullpens

The Guardians bullpen owns a 3.15 ERA this season, along with a 1.21 WHIP.

The Baltimore pen owns a 3.17 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP.

MLB Betting Trends

Baltimore is 30-37 on the road this season and 42-44 against right-handed starters.

Cleveland is 33-25 at home and 47-44 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

  • The Under is 66-56 in Orioles games this season.
  • The Under is 63-58 in Guardians games.
  • The Under is a combined 28-21 with McKenzie and Lyles this season.
  • The totals are split 27-27 at Progressive Field this season.

Orioles at Guardians Betting Prediction 8/31/22

We give McKenzie our handicapping check-mark in the pitching match-up, and Cleveland owns an edge with the sticks, while the bullpens, both solid, are about equal. So we like the Guardians here. But we're not big fans of that price. So we'll take a chance and fight the 17 percent slant (17 percent of ML games are won by the favorite by precisely one run) with a play on Cleveland against the run line.
Free Pick: 
Take Clevelan -1.5