Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick

Date: 
September 9, 7:05 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
Braves +115 / Phillies -135
Total: 
8.5

This game is the first of a four-game NL East series where the Phillies host the Division-leading Braves.

In their last game, the Braves had their nine-game win streak snapped with a 9-4 loss to the Washington Nationals. In the game they scored four runs on seven hits and the Nationals scored nine runs banking out 17 hits. Atlanta was held to only one run through eight innings before scoring three in the 9th inning.

The Phillies won their 2nd in a row in their last game beating the New York Mets 10-7. They scored ten runs on 13 hits, and the Mets scored seven runs on 14 hits. Philadelphia went deep three times in the win and came back after getting in an early 3-0 hole after the first inning.

The Phillies had lost three in a row before winning their last two games.

This season the Braves rank 6th in runs scored and 10th in team ERA and the Phillies rank 13th in runs scored and 17th in team ERA.

Pitching Match-Up

Atlanta: Mike Foltynewicz (5-5 5.28 ERA)

Philadelphia: Aaron Nola (12-4 3.63 ERA)

The Braves have won Foltynewicz's last nine starts, and his previous six were after missing a month and a half on the DL. In his previous start, he did not give up any runs and only gave up two hits in a 7-2 win over the Toronto Blue Jays. In his last four starts, he has an ERA of only 2.11. Foltynewicz’s only start against the Phillies this season was in mid-June and hi 2nd to last one before landing on the DL. He was solid in that start giving up one earned run on only four hits in six innings in a 15-1 Atlanta win. The Braves are 4-1 in Foltynewicz's last five starts against the Phillies, and they have won his last five road starts.

The Phillies have lost Nola’s last three starts, and in his last one he gave up five earned runs in only five hits in four innings in an 8-5 loss to the Cincinnati Reds. In the two Philly losses in his previous two starts, he gave up four earned runs in 13 1/3 innings of work. In four starts against Atlanta this season, Nola is 3-0 with an ERA of 3.60 and the Phillies have won his last five starts against them, overall, and have also won his previous five home starts facing them. Nola has given up two or fewer runs in nine of his last 15 starts, and the Phillies are 30-12 in his last 42 home starts.

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Betting Angles

  • The Braves are 4-1 in their last four games against the Phillies.
  • The Phillies are 6-2 in their last eight games against the Braves.
  • In the last four games between these teams, the total has gone Over every time.
  • In the last six games between these teams in Philadelphia, the Over record is 5-1.

Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Records

Atlanta Braves: 89-55 SU / O/U 68-69 / Run Line W/L 74-70

Philadelphia Phillies: 74-68 SU / O/U 66-73 / Run Line W/L 70-72

Key Betting Trends

  • ATL is 9-1 in their last ten games
  • ATL is 5-2 in their last seven road games
  • ATL has an Under record of 6-1 in their last seven games
  • PHIL is 5-2 in their last seven games against a right-hand starter
  • PHIL is 5-3 in their last eight games
  • PHIL has an Under record of 5-2 in their previous seven games against a right-hand starter

Team Info

While the Braves had their nine-game win streak snapped in their last game, they have been one of the hottest teams in MLB in the previous few weeks. Unless they implode, they will win the NL East, as they are nine games up on the Washington Nationals.

The Braves have three players in Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Josh Donaldson that have hit at least 36 HR and the team is seven HR away from breaking their franchise record.

The Braves had only given up an average of 3.7 runs per game in their nine-game win streak before giving up nine runs in losing their last game.

The Phillies are out of the NL East race, and the only way they can make the playoffs is the Wild Card. They are two games back of the Chicago Cubs for the last Wild Card spot. They have a tough hill to climb to make the postseason with their remaining schedule, as after this series and two games hosting the Boston Red Sox, they have an 11-game road trip facing the Braves, Cleveland Indians, and Nationals before their last series of the season at home hosting the Miami Marlins.

The Phillies have totaled 15 runs in their last two games while they had scored12 runs in losing their previous three games.

The last time the Phillies faced the Braves, it was at home in late July losing the first two games giving up 24 runs before winning the series finale 9-4.

Key Injuries

BRAVES

3B Nick Markakis is on the 10-day DL and is not expected back in the lineup until the middle of this month, and CF Ender Inciarte is out with a hamstring injury and will not be back until later this month.

PHILLIES

CF Roman Quinn is out for this game with a groin injury, and the Phillies have a few relief pitchers on the 10-day DL.

Braves at Phillies Prediction 09/09/2019

The Phillies have won all four of Nola’s starts against the Braves where he was great in two of them, but the lineup bailed him out in the two others. Foltynewicz has pitched well as of late in his audition to get into the Atlanta playoff rotation, and he will have another solid outing in this game. There will not be much offense in this game, as both starters will pitch well. The Braves will come up with a few runs, and in a low scoring game, they will win Game 1 in a low scoring affair.

Free Pick: 
Take the Braves +105

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